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(20-08-2021, 11:35 PM)Wildreamz Wrote: Closed out my small (1.5%) position in Alibaba.
Still hugely positive of the management, the mission, the business model, and the long-term trajectory of Alibaba; but Xi is an unknown factor that I increasingly feel I can't price.
I have learnt a lot about China, and discovered many Chinese experts during the course of my investment (since late Dec 2016); whom I will continue to follow. Good luck to buddies that is long one of the most important, and value-creating companies in China. This is probably a mistake, their fundamentals remains intact, but I'm not confident this will stay the same in the future (which may or may not be determined purely by market forces).
Humbled. Peace.
Thanks for sharing much on your views and insights on China thus far.
If the experts mentioned above are blogs and websites, can you share them?
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“If you buy a business just because it’s undervalued, then you have to worry about selling it when it reaches its intrinsic value. That’s hard. But if you can buy a few great companies, then you can sit on your ass. That’s a good thing.” - Charlie Munger
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23-08-2021, 12:15 PM
(This post was last modified: 23-08-2021, 12:16 PM by Wildreamz.)
(22-08-2021, 09:50 AM)Choon Wrote: Many thanks 
No prob. Hope I made it clear that it is not the fundamentals I'm worry about (super bullish); it's Xi as an unknown (somewhat negative, based on his recent statements and pattern of actions) factor.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...-home-city
Quote:China Starts Probe Into Party Boss of Alibaba’s Home City
“If you buy a business just because it’s undervalued, then you have to worry about selling it when it reaches its intrinsic value. That’s hard. But if you can buy a few great companies, then you can sit on your ass. That’s a good thing.” - Charlie Munger
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23-08-2021, 12:18 PM
(This post was last modified: 23-08-2021, 12:19 PM by Wildreamz.)
By the way, I don't think this article (Feb 2021) has been shared. Could be relevant to recent investigations: https://www.finews.asia/finance/33812-pr...po-pullout
Quote:Princelings Targeted in Ant IPO Pullout
The blocked listing of Ant Group was driven by more than just concerns by the central government against its founder Jack Ma but also its shareholders which include prominent figures in mainland Chinese politics.
“If you buy a business just because it’s undervalued, then you have to worry about selling it when it reaches its intrinsic value. That’s hard. But if you can buy a few great companies, then you can sit on your ass. That’s a good thing.” - Charlie Munger
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23-08-2021, 02:23 PM
(This post was last modified: 23-08-2021, 02:24 PM by CY09.)
I think alibaba will still thrive as it is going the route of Amazon. Its e commerce gross margins are going to be compressed as well from what we see on Amazon. It going to be a low margin business while their cloud computing services will grow similar to AWS. BUT.... will XJP intervene? This is the uncertainty. Alibaba's management has always been ahead of the game, first working with ANT to create a payment system which is a duopoly and then moving to cloud computing where it is no 1. To me, lazada SEA venture might not have been a good venture because despite the good logistics chain and data execution Lazada can tap on, its ability to fight on price is severely lacking
However, being too big, in a communist party run country is a bad thing. You cannot overshadow the de facto number 1
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23-08-2021, 03:32 PM
(This post was last modified: 23-08-2021, 05:05 PM by Wildreamz.)
https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2021-08...1702.shtml
Quote:阿里云未经用户同意擅自将用户留存在的注册信息泄露给第三方合作公司
近日，网络流传一份浙江省通信管理局7月5日对投诉人的答复函，核实称此前阿里云计算有限公司未经用户同意擅自将用户留存在的注册信息泄露给第三方合作公司。
8月23日，浙江省通信管理局相关负责人独家回应21世纪经济报道记者称，该份编号为【2021】第483号的答复函属实。
https://www.yicaiglobal.com/news/alibaba...a-security
Quote:Alibaba Cloud Did Leak User Data in 2019, Watchdog Says as China Gets Tough on Data Security
(Yicai Global) Aug. 23 -- The cloud computing unit of Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding has been found guilty of breaching user data protection laws in November 2019, the 21st Business Herald reported exclusively today, citing the local watchdog, as the country gears up to bring in some of the world’s strictest data security laws next month.
The Zhejiang Communication Administration has confirmed that a screenshot of its response to a complainant last month that has been circulating on social media, in which Alibaba Cloud Computing was informed that it had broken the law by distributing personal information to a third-party partner without consent and was instructed to correct its practices, is authentic, the report said.
Such an act is in violation of Article 42 of the country’s cybersecurity law which says, "Network operators shall not leak, alter or destroy the personal information they collect. User data shall not be provided to others without the consent of the person whose information was collected," it said. Alibaba Cloud has yet to respond.
Value opportunity or value trap?
“If you buy a business just because it’s undervalued, then you have to worry about selling it when it reaches its intrinsic value. That’s hard. But if you can buy a few great companies, then you can sit on your ass. That’s a good thing.” - Charlie Munger
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24-08-2021, 02:48 PM
(This post was last modified: 24-08-2021, 02:54 PM by Wildreamz.)
Another notable China expert:
Michael Pettis
American Finance professor at Peking University.
https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets
https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis
Most recent comments:
“If you buy a business just because it’s undervalued, then you have to worry about selling it when it reaches its intrinsic value. That’s hard. But if you can buy a few great companies, then you can sit on your ass. That’s a good thing.” - Charlie Munger
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https://fortune.com/2021/08/24/china-tec...d-results/
Quote:Is the rout of China tech stocks over? Cathie Wood returns to the China market after JD.com’s strong results
“If you buy a business just because it’s undervalued, then you have to worry about selling it when it reaches its intrinsic value. That’s hard. But if you can buy a few great companies, then you can sit on your ass. That’s a good thing.” - Charlie Munger
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25-08-2021, 10:38 AM
(This post was last modified: 25-08-2021, 10:54 AM by Wildreamz.)
Cathie is back in Chinese Tech, but not Alibaba/Tencent. Here is why:
I tend to agree that's the game plan moving forward (buying smaller players in government supported sectors). If I'm the CCP, I will want a more vibrant domestic economy, with many dominant players. Not just one that is dominated by 2 (pseudo) monopolies, that may have too much resource, power, and influence concentrated in too few hands (including significant foreign capital).
More upside potential, and less regulatory risks.
Paradoxically, Alibaba is in many of these "government supported sectors" (Cloud, digitalization, e-commerce, cross-border trade, AI, chip design, logistics etc.); however, right now, perhaps one should be looking at smaller, faster growing, less likely to be scrutinize by CCP, JD and PDD?
(Not directly vested in China; NOT investment advise)
“If you buy a business just because it’s undervalued, then you have to worry about selling it when it reaches its intrinsic value. That’s hard. But if you can buy a few great companies, then you can sit on your ass. That’s a good thing.” - Charlie Munger
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