Covid-19

I wonder if the US is going to go into lockdown soon.

(24-03-2020, 10:45 PM)jfc18 Wrote: I think the latest restrictions in place are pre-emptive moves. Thou a bitter pill to swallow for many business owners, it is perhaps the right move for the greater good of community and nation. Given our super dense population, once the active infection cases overrun our healthcare system, there’s a real possibility we will see SAF trucks activated to transport hundreds of corpses for cremation. Every single day.

Interesting. After doomsday scenario on China till today nobody even quote China numbers now (except maybe yours truly on 16 March), we have Singapore possibly going apocolypse. I do agree that we have to not overload the health system which is why I support Singapore's incremental and balanced approach.

VB look at fundamentals, numbers and generally a scientific approach. This is not spanish flu or bubonic plague. It has characteristics of flu but more infectious (which is causing the panic and overwhelming the system) and mortality probably <1% vs 0.1% for flu. In case some think I am too complacent, I was truly fearful during SARS because the numbers say differently.

(25-03-2020, 08:24 AM)karlmarx Wrote: I wonder if the US is going to go into lockdown soon.

If US do not lockdown like China soon, their infection cases are going to explode. You either cripple the economy or cripple the healthcare system which will lead to scores of death. Pick your poison.

If one observes the SG government decrees since the outbreak in Feb, they have been trying to minimise the economic impact while trying to contain the outbreak. Based on this observation, I think what they did should be measured, rather, they have the data and they know things that we don't. The controls are being added incrementally based on situation, unlike many other countries.

Singaporeans who think that their favourite REITs' current dividend yields are high (if they can be considered high at 6-7%), need to think thrice. Most retail REITs have a higher F&B composition compared to historic mix due to retail sales moving online. F&B are undoubtedly having cashflow issues and Singapore economy is dependent on tourism (4% of GDP). F&B owners will definitely demand rental reduction from landlords to relief business pressure, else they will close shop. Recovery in footfall will not be immediate after this pandemic, as most likely we are in a global recession now, just that it has yet to be reported officially. Expect earnings cuts and dividend cuts to come. Needless to mention industrial and hospitality REITs.

As of today, there are 384 hospitalised COVID cases, and 17 ICU cases. 

https://www.moh.gov.sg/covid-19

NCID only has 330 beds, but the facility can be ramped up to 500 if need be. 

https://www.ncid.sg/Facilities-Services/...fault.aspx

While there are more facilities in other hospitals, ICUs also need to be reserved for other critical cases. In "normal" times, only 30-40% of ICU capacities are empty i.e. ICU cases are actually quite common even without COVID.

The moves by the taskforce r based on hard numbers - the system still has some buffer, but actually once a cluster gets out of hand and at worst, infects a cluster of the vulnerable i.e. old and/or sick, then the system will be overwhelmed pretty fast. Actually one very little mentioned fact is that there is still no infection of medical staff and that should garner plenty of praise for the system. The scary thing abt SARS was that hospitals became the hotbed itself which cripples the entire system.

It's best not to hv a situation where we need to decide who gets to live and who does not.

Don't think it is about crippling the economy or healthcare system. If governments around the world aren't complacent and adopted measures like Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, countries probably wouldn't have to go to such extreme measures.

They have to go to such extreme measures now is because, the virus is already widespread within their communities, and they know it.

The morality rate is low when the healthcare system is not overloaded, but when the healthcare system is overloaded, the morality rate spikes, which is what I have been saying since Feb, based on my observations on China vs ROW morality rate.

(25-03-2020, 10:13 AM)AQ. Wrote: As of today, there are 384 hospitalised COVID cases, and 17 ICU cases. 

https://www.moh.gov.sg/covid-19

NCID only has 330 beds, but the facility can be ramped up to 500 if need be. 

https://www.ncid.sg/Facilities-Services/...fault.aspx

While there are more facilities in other hospitals, ICUs also need to be reserved for other critical cases. In "normal" times, only 30-40% of ICU capacities are empty i.e. ICU cases are actually quite common even without COVID.

The moves by the taskforce r based on hard numbers - the system still has some buffer, but actually once a cluster gets out of hand and at worst, infects a cluster of the vulnerable i.e. old and/or sick, then the system will be overwhelmed pretty fast. Actually one very little mentioned fact is that there is still no infection of medical staff and that should garner plenty of praise for the system. The scary thing abt SARS was that hospitals became the hotbed itself which cripples the entire system.

It's best not to hv a situation where we need to decide who gets to live and who does not.

Singapore plan quite well because we did not react extreme to shock. We are building external facilities for NCID I think so that other hospitals wont be overloaded with ICU and preparing that mild cases will stay at home

Asia can lock down 3-6 months generally but will bring much pain to the lower 1/4 of the society. But Europe and a lot of US no money one. I'm not even sure how Italy going to recover from this. Lock down is like Chemo therapy. It destroys both good and bad.


The truth is communal spread with low load is the goal. It's how to do it over what period of time so that it doesn't overwhelms the system and cause panic and collateral damage

Hopefully this guy is right: https://www.latimes.com/science/story/20...l-laureate

Might be useful to those who have urgent insurance queries during this period. 

Quote:Shenton Brokers has set up a helpline and chatbot to assist people who may have insurance related queries during the COVID-19 (Novel Coronavirus) period in Singapore. The helpline (+65 6836 0983) will be active Monday to Friday from 9am to 6pm, and the chatbot (accessible on https://shentonbrokers.sg/) will be available 24/7. This service is available to everyone free of charge, irrespective of whether the policy has been purchased on Shenton Brokers.

I posted this to another thread, but it might be also relevant here. 

Original thread is here: https://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-1006...#pid156994

Seems like the stories I heard about insurance agents doing brisk business during this period is true!

I wonder if term insurance premiums have risen during this period.

(25-03-2020, 10:10 AM)holymage Wrote: If one observes the SG government decrees since the outbreak in Feb, they have been trying to minimise the economic impact while trying to contain the outbreak. Based on this observation, I think what they did should be measured, rather, they have the data and they know things that we don't. The controls are being added incrementally based on situation, unlike many other countries.

This is the most likely explanation behind the decision by Singapore government yesterday.
____________________________________________________

SINGAPORE: Singapore reported 73 new COVID-19 cases on Wednesday (Mar 25) and announced a new cluster involving the PAP Community Foundation (PCF) Sparkletots centre in Fengshan, which is linked to 18 cases in total. 

Another new cluster was also announced involving Dover Court International School (301 Dover Road), which is linked to three confirmed cases. 

On Wednesday, Health Minister Gan Kim Yong said in Parliament that Singapore has increased the number of teams for contact tracing from three to 20 in order to prepare for an "expected surge" in COVID-19 cases in the coming weeks. 

Mr Gan said that with around 200,000 overseas Singaporeans returning home from all over the world, the number of cases will continue to rise. 

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/sin...5-12574708