CESS announced today, that Sanlam sold it's position down to 19.020.000 shares on nov.22.2012.
During the time span of 16.8.-22.11.2012 24.967.000 where traded, thereof 17.691.000 where Sanlam's (71% of total volume).
Since the flagging notice 10.306.000 additional shares have been sold. Assuming the same relation, Sanlam would still have around twelve million shares left, floor estimate being around nine million.
3 months to get rid of 18mil shares.
Probably need another one more month to clear the rest
(28-11-2012, 05:59 PM)jzk Wrote: [ -> ]CESS announced today, that Sanlam sold it's position down to 19.020.000 shares on nov.22.2012.
During the time span of 16.8.-22.11.2012 24.967.000 where traded, thereof 17.691.000 where Sanlam's (71% of total volume).
Since the flagging notice 10.306.000 additional shares have been sold. Assuming the same relation, Sanlam would still have around twelve million shares left, floor estimate being around nine million.
How much of the LONG OUTSTANDING DBS got to be repaid by Dec 2012?
Will Essence default?
Has Essence collected enough A/R to tide over for the payment of CB?
prepare for trading halt and suspension of trading if CB deadline at end of Dec 2012 is not met, similar to what happened in Jan this year...
DBS loan surely cannot be repaid...
(03-12-2012, 09:28 AM)Curiousparty Wrote: [ -> ]How much of the LONG OUTSTANDING DBS got to be repaid by Dec 2012?
Will Essence default?
Has Essence collected enough A/R to tide over for the payment of CB?
Who are the buyers?
Brave defenders or punters who strongly believes company will turn around?
(28-11-2012, 05:59 PM)jzk Wrote: [ -> ]CESS announced today, that Sanlam sold it's position down to 19.020.000 shares on nov.22.2012.
During the time span of 16.8.-22.11.2012 24.967.000 where traded, thereof 17.691.000 where Sanlam's (71% of total volume).
Since the flagging notice 10.306.000 additional shares have been sold. Assuming the same relation, Sanlam would still have around twelve million shares left, floor estimate being around nine million.
The magnitude of bad debt might have been severely under-estimated, i.e. the real situation is several times worser than expected...
According to Edge Magazine, domestic manufacturing industries are still facing a lot of OVERCAPACITY and factory output prices have remained depressed....
Reached an all time low of $0.018 today.
All time high = $1.14 (??)
Market cap only $7mil now...
Well, there is some chance that it might recover if starch price recovers...
(15-11-2012, 02:06 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: [ -> ]It has debt (DBS, local banks, CB) of $770 mil.
But adding up inventory (assuming 10% margin), A/R (assuming 10% bad debt) and cash only gives 572mil.
There is a gap of $200mil RMB.
Even if all the A/Rs are collected back, does it have enough cash for next harvesting cycle. Can Essence even start the next cycle?
The BIG QUESTION MARK is the A/R. Before it can be collected back and appear as CASH on B/S, it is still considered worthless!
think they have screwed up this year again because:-
a. collection for trade receivables have been very very slow - payment of CB at end of Dec might be an issue. And it has also prevented them from producing more starch...
b. Starch price has not recovered to the 10,000 level and might never do so because of the "inherent" overcapacity - supply has dropped by as much as 20 to 30% this year but price has not spiked. Is this empricial evidence of overcapacity in the industry?
(10-05-2012, 05:27 PM)jzk Wrote: [ -> ]There is no chance for better results until Q3 (10-12/2012) and Q4 (1-3/2013). As regards to the results announcement in two weeks, there is one single interesting piece of information to be expected: Have the huge receivables turned into cash or have they not? If they have AND if they don't screw up next autumn, the sky is the only limit. I sincerely hope, that both of those conditions are fulfilled. Interesting dates:
-Results presentation 5/2012.
-Next CB pay date in the end of june.
-Loan negotiations 8/2012.
-First guesses of harvest season 11/2012.
-Results presentation of Q3 (2/2013).
Market value has shrunk approx 100 times from its peak price of one dollar plus
Those fund houses must have been cursing !!!
(06-12-2012, 04:10 PM)potatolover Wrote: [ -> ]The magnitude of bad debt might have been severely under-estimated, i.e. the real situation is several times worser than expected...
According to Edge Magazine, domestic manufacturing industries are still facing a lot of OVERCAPACITY and factory output prices have remained depressed....
Reached an all time low of $0.018 today.
All time high = $1.14 (??)
Market cap only $7mil now...
Well, there is some chance that it might recover if starch price recovers...
(15-11-2012, 02:06 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: [ -> ]It has debt (DBS, local banks, CB) of $770 mil.
But adding up inventory (assuming 10% margin), A/R (assuming 10% bad debt) and cash only gives 572mil.
There is a gap of $200mil RMB.
Even if all the A/Rs are collected back, does it have enough cash for next harvesting cycle. Can Essence even start the next cycle?
The BIG QUESTION MARK is the A/R. Before it can be collected back and appear as CASH on B/S, it is still considered worthless!
All time low of 1.4 cents hit!
if company can pull thru, this is a very very cheap price to pay...
19.655.000 shares sold AFTER 11-29-2012 announcement. Theoretically Sanlam could now have sold all its holdings. More likely situation, though, is that they still have a couple (3-7) of million shares left.
(28-11-2012, 05:59 PM)jzk Wrote: [ -> ]CESS announced today, that Sanlam sold it's position down to 19.020.000 shares on nov.22.2012.
During the time span of 16.8.-22.11.2012 24.967.000 where traded, thereof 17.691.000 where Sanlam's (71% of total volume).
Since the flagging notice 10.306.000 additional shares have been sold. Assuming the same relation, Sanlam would still have around twelve million shares left, floor estimate being around nine million.