(04-12-2016, 11:23 PM)bardsmanship Wrote: [ -> ] (02-12-2016, 10:56 PM)Scg8866t Wrote: [ -> ]Yes nothing ad hominem, just a clarification on how to justify certain aspect of a valuation that might be subjective to some.
Anyway back to wheelock. From their sales of ardmore three and panaroma, we should see massive cash inflow into its coffers next year(maybe reaching a bil). Which could potentially lead to a special div or a big subtantial landbank purchase(australia perhaps?). I find their assets and associate assets to be very synergised. They can also easily maximize gfa by forming a link between wheelock place and hilton/four seasons to conquer the western orchard belt. To each his/her own.
How do you get the $1 billion figure? As of 3Q 2016 Wheelock has about $400m cash.
The Panorama was already 94% sold as of FY 2015, wouldn't those sales have already contributed to the current cash pile?
7 units of Ardmore Three were sold by end-2015 vs 50 sold as of the MRQ, so 43 units have been sold so far this year. Each unit is about 1750 square feet, so assuming an average PSF of $3300, that's close to $250m. But why would that cash only flow into Wheelock's coffers next year?
Hi bardmanship,
Panaroma should TOP next year once TOP, developers get 25% of the total sales and on completion date another 15%. Assuming 1.2mil avg per unit for a total of 698 units, 40% will be 335mil. To date, Ardmore three has sold a total of 50 units(ard 290mil). If you add them all up its very likely to hit 1bil sgd.
There is a recent article on this too:
http://sbr.com.sg/commercial-property/ne...op-1b-1h17
(05-12-2016, 08:29 AM)Scg8866t Wrote: [ -> ] (04-12-2016, 11:23 PM)bardsmanship Wrote: [ -> ] (02-12-2016, 10:56 PM)Scg8866t Wrote: [ -> ]Yes nothing ad hominem, just a clarification on how to justify certain aspect of a valuation that might be subjective to some.
Anyway back to wheelock. From their sales of ardmore three and panaroma, we should see massive cash inflow into its coffers next year(maybe reaching a bil). Which could potentially lead to a special div or a big subtantial landbank purchase(australia perhaps?). I find their assets and associate assets to be very synergised. They can also easily maximize gfa by forming a link between wheelock place and hilton/four seasons to conquer the western orchard belt. To each his/her own.
How do you get the $1 billion figure? As of 3Q 2016 Wheelock has about $400m cash.
The Panorama was already 94% sold as of FY 2015, wouldn't those sales have already contributed to the current cash pile?
7 units of Ardmore Three were sold by end-2015 vs 50 sold as of the MRQ, so 43 units have been sold so far this year. Each unit is about 1750 square feet, so assuming an average PSF of $3300, that's close to $250m. But why would that cash only flow into Wheelock's coffers next year?
Hi bardmanship,
Panaroma should TOP next year once TOP, developers get 25% of the total sales and on completion date another 15%. Assuming 1.2mil avg per unit for a total of 698 units, 40% will be 335mil. To date, Ardmore three has sold a total of 50 units(ard 290mil). If you add them all up its very likely to hit 1bil sgd.
There is a recent article on this too: http://sbr.com.sg/commercial-property/ne...op-1b-1h17
The other rough indicator to look at for potential cash inflow is the value of "development properties" under current asset which stands at SGD 882 million as at 30-Sep-2016.
"The developer has two investment properties, Wheelock Place and Scotts Square retail, which generates a recurring rental income of ~$40m per annum." - wondering how the 40 m is arrived at ?
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(04-12-2016, 11:59 PM)Boon Wrote: [ -> ] (04-12-2016, 10:15 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: [ -> ]IMHO things relevant/related directly to the company are of course better shared on the forum. Things not relevant to the company would be considered off-topic and could be discussed on a new thread in the Others section or whatever relevant section.
PM is just another avenue for further discussion between members, not much different from direct emails which I reckon everyone has freedom to choose how they communicate. Don't like it then dun PM loh, dun like the particular member? there is always the ignore list.
My take on Wheelock.
Looking at charts.
Share price : around $1.50 now.
Pre-GFC property bubble in USA time, hit almost $3.50 in 2007 and declined till hit below $1 during GFC and since QE1 recovered to trade around $1.7-$2 range with dips every couple years to $1.50 level when market was bad - end 2011, early 2014 and mid2015(china stock crash). Since mid 2015 last year no recovery yet back to higher $2 level.
All the while consistently giving out 6cents dividend. 4% if you bought at $1.50 lows in recent years and 3% yield if bought at $2 high. Whilst some may feel 4% is decent, IMHO its pretty lousy
NAV $2.52 vs price $1.50 [40 % discount, probably more if use RNAV]
HK Property sector. There has been a rebound since mid year from Chinese running funds over to HK to escape devaluating yuan. Big risks :
1) HK gov started the 15% levy last month (we can see the effect from Canada doing a 15% recently too)
2) Fund flows back to US from emerging markets, trump story, reversal of carry trades.
3) Devaluation of yuan and China decrease exports and decrease imports could hit HK economy in a big way.
4) Increasing public anger towards China and wanting independence (unlikely to succeed, but civil unrest can dampen property investment)
Wheelock will probably languish around $1.50 for now and might slowly go to $1 GFC prices if things get bad. However, given so many risks, IMHO only a privatisation offer be the likely catalyst for any significant share price move.
-n v-
Does Wheelock Properties has any exposure to the HK property sector?
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Hi mate,
Are you trying to confuse or convince?
If you are trying to convince the audience that you fit the profile of “One who knows little about the company - not willing to spend time doing more research on it – but yet like to “somehow” comment on the company as if one knows a great deal about the company.” – you probably have done a great job on it.
And this is not the first time you are doing this…………….
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(05-12-2016, 10:36 AM)Boon Wrote: [ -> ] (04-12-2016, 11:59 PM)Boon Wrote: [ -> ] (04-12-2016, 10:15 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: [ -> ]IMHO things relevant/related directly to the company are of course better shared on the forum. Things not relevant to the company would be considered off-topic and could be discussed on a new thread in the Others section or whatever relevant section.
PM is just another avenue for further discussion between members, not much different from direct emails which I reckon everyone has freedom to choose how they communicate. Don't like it then dun PM loh, dun like the particular member? there is always the ignore list.
My take on Wheelock.
Looking at charts.
Share price : around $1.50 now.
Pre-GFC property bubble in USA time, hit almost $3.50 in 2007 and declined till hit below $1 during GFC and since QE1 recovered to trade around $1.7-$2 range with dips every couple years to $1.50 level when market was bad - end 2011, early 2014 and mid2015(china stock crash). Since mid 2015 last year no recovery yet back to higher $2 level.
All the while consistently giving out 6cents dividend. 4% if you bought at $1.50 lows in recent years and 3% yield if bought at $2 high. Whilst some may feel 4% is decent, IMHO its pretty lousy
NAV $2.52 vs price $1.50 [40 % discount, probably more if use RNAV]
HK Property sector. There has been a rebound since mid year from Chinese running funds over to HK to escape devaluating yuan. Big risks :
1) HK gov started the 15% levy last month (we can see the effect from Canada doing a 15% recently too)
2) Fund flows back to US from emerging markets, trump story, reversal of carry trades.
3) Devaluation of yuan and China decrease exports and decrease imports could hit HK economy in a big way.
4) Increasing public anger towards China and wanting independence (unlikely to succeed, but civil unrest can dampen property investment)
Wheelock will probably languish around $1.50 for now and might slowly go to $1 GFC prices if things get bad. However, given so many risks, IMHO only a privatisation offer be the likely catalyst for any significant share price move.
-n v-
Does Wheelock Properties has any exposure to the HK property sector?
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Hi mate,
Are you trying to confuse or convince?
If you are trying to convince the audience that you fit the profile of “One who knows little about the company - not willing to spend time doing more research on it – but yet like to “somehow” comment on the company as if one knows a great deal about the company.” – you probably have done a great job on it.
And this is not the first time you are doing this…………….
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Yea, no idea why HK was mentioned. Wheelock Properties(SG) only has properties in SG and Fuyang City China(joint venture with Wharf). In regards to Fuyang City 96% of phase 1 and 2a that were launched were sold.
Maybe he was refering to WHEELOCK(HK) or The WHARF HOLDINGS(HK).
(05-12-2016, 10:52 AM)Scg8866t Wrote: [ -> ] (05-12-2016, 10:36 AM)Boon Wrote: [ -> ] (04-12-2016, 11:59 PM)Boon Wrote: [ -> ] (04-12-2016, 10:15 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: [ -> ]IMHO things relevant/related directly to the company are of course better shared on the forum. Things not relevant to the company would be considered off-topic and could be discussed on a new thread in the Others section or whatever relevant section.
PM is just another avenue for further discussion between members, not much different from direct emails which I reckon everyone has freedom to choose how they communicate. Don't like it then dun PM loh, dun like the particular member? there is always the ignore list.
My take on Wheelock.
Looking at charts.
Share price : around $1.50 now.
Pre-GFC property bubble in USA time, hit almost $3.50 in 2007 and declined till hit below $1 during GFC and since QE1 recovered to trade around $1.7-$2 range with dips every couple years to $1.50 level when market was bad - end 2011, early 2014 and mid2015(china stock crash). Since mid 2015 last year no recovery yet back to higher $2 level.
All the while consistently giving out 6cents dividend. 4% if you bought at $1.50 lows in recent years and 3% yield if bought at $2 high. Whilst some may feel 4% is decent, IMHO its pretty lousy
NAV $2.52 vs price $1.50 [40 % discount, probably more if use RNAV]
HK Property sector. There has been a rebound since mid year from Chinese running funds over to HK to escape devaluating yuan. Big risks :
1) HK gov started the 15% levy last month (we can see the effect from Canada doing a 15% recently too)
2) Fund flows back to US from emerging markets, trump story, reversal of carry trades.
3) Devaluation of yuan and China decrease exports and decrease imports could hit HK economy in a big way.
4) Increasing public anger towards China and wanting independence (unlikely to succeed, but civil unrest can dampen property investment)
Wheelock will probably languish around $1.50 for now and might slowly go to $1 GFC prices if things get bad. However, given so many risks, IMHO only a privatisation offer be the likely catalyst for any significant share price move.
-n v-
Does Wheelock Properties has any exposure to the HK property sector?
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Hi mate,
Are you trying to confuse or convince?
If you are trying to convince the audience that you fit the profile of “One who knows little about the company - not willing to spend time doing more research on it – but yet like to “somehow” comment on the company as if one knows a great deal about the company.” – you probably have done a great job on it.
And this is not the first time you are doing this…………….
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Yea, no idea why HK was mentioned. Wheelock Properties(SG) only has properties in SG and Fuyang City China(joint venture with Wharf). In regards to Fuyang City 96% of phase 1 and 2a that were launched were sold.
Maybe he was refering to WHEELOCK(HK) or The WHARF HOLDINGS(HK).
This guy knows a lot that many don't . Maybe property in HK just bought by Wheelock and company has yet to make this announcement .
(04-12-2016, 11:59 PM)Boon Wrote: [ -> ]Does Wheelock Properties has any exposure to the HK property sector?
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To address this question specifically, the answer is yes. There is exposure to HK property sector for Wheelock Properties(SG), under Investments. They do hold some shares in listed HK property counters and also debts as in bonds of listed HK property companies.
(05-12-2016, 12:31 PM)ghchua Wrote: [ -> ] (04-12-2016, 11:59 PM)Boon Wrote: [ -> ]Does Wheelock Properties has any exposure to the HK property sector?
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To address this question specifically, the answer is yes. There is exposure to HK property sector for Wheelock Properties(SG), under Investments. They do hold some shares in listed HK property counters and also debts as in bonds of listed HK property companies.
Thanks ghchua for the info but I don’t seem to be able to find this info on the AR – where is your source of info?
I don’t think the “investments” portfolio has 100% exposure to the HK market – assuming it is, total exposure is only 7.5% of the group’s total asset – far less concentrated HK risk exposure than as “painted” by Bluekelah.
Singapore is still the biggest key market.
As at 30-Sep-2016:
Investments = 246 m (7.5% of Total Assets)
Total Assets = 3,280 m
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Hi Boon,
The information was from the AGM that I attended. Investments are not static and they can increase or decrease the exposure. It is around 7.5% now, but it doesn't mean that it will remain the same in the future. I remember they had higher amount in investments previously but I think they had since sold down some of their investments.
(05-12-2016, 02:06 PM)Boon Wrote: [ -> ] (05-12-2016, 12:31 PM)ghchua Wrote: [ -> ] (04-12-2016, 11:59 PM)Boon Wrote: [ -> ]Does Wheelock Properties has any exposure to the HK property sector?
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
To address this question specifically, the answer is yes. There is exposure to HK property sector for Wheelock Properties(SG), under Investments. They do hold some shares in listed HK property counters and also debts as in bonds of listed HK property companies.
Thanks ghchua for the info but I don’t seem to be able to find this info on the AR – where is your source of info?
I don’t think the “investments” portfolio has 100% exposure to the HK market – assuming it is, total exposure is only 7.5% of the group’s total asset – far less concentrated HK risk exposure than as “painted” by Bluekelah.
Singapore is still the biggest key market.
As at 30-Sep-2016:
Investments = 246 m (7.5% of Total Assets)
Total Assets = 3,280 m
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Under Wheelock investments portfolio, all direct subsidaries are based in Singapore. Only one small portion under indirect subsidary is based in Hk and that is Goldern Unicorn which Wheelock owns 100%. That portion is only worth $10k.
http://www.wheelockproperties.com.sg/pdf...220211.pdf
Can refer to their total investment portfolio here:
http://www.wheelockproperties.com.sg/pdf/ar-2015.pdf (page 75)
Hi Scg8866t,
I don't think there is a restriction that only subsidiaries based in HK can hold HK listed shares. Sorry, I think there is a confusion here. I am not referring to page 75, I am referring to page 80, Note 9 - Investments.