(02-12-2016, 10:08 PM)Boon Wrote: [ -> ]7) So far, I don’t think Scg8866t and/or I have ventured BEYOND the scope of Wheelock discussion – it‘s all still relevant, I reckon. Neither have we delved into any personal issue of anyone at all.
8) Let’s carry on the discussion including TUB’s scorecard system on this forum.
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hi boon,
for (7), it is subjective if we try to define the "scope of Wheelock discussion" or "relevancy" and so let's leave it as such.
for (8), TUB has requested to discuss it through PM. Since it is his scorecard, let's respect that. Alternatively he has options - I think he has a blog too, so maybe can discuss there? Or if he wants, he can setup a "TUB score card" thread under others.
lets make my post as the last post on this issue. thanks for the continuous contribution.
@ TUBInvesting
As at 30-Sep-2016:
The book value (NAV) of Wheelock Properties (WP) = SGD 2.52 per share
What is your best estimate of the “fair value” or “intrinsic value” of WP ?
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(04-12-2016, 11:24 AM)Boon Wrote: [ -> ] (03-12-2016, 10:11 AM)weijian Wrote: [ -> ] (02-12-2016, 10:08 PM)Boon Wrote: [ -> ]7) So far, I don’t think Scg8866t and/or I have ventured BEYOND the scope of Wheelock discussion – it‘s all still relevant, I reckon. Neither have we delved into any personal issue of anyone at all.
8) Let’s carry on the discussion including TUB’s scorecard system on this forum.
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hi boon,
for (7), it is subjective if we try to define the "scope of Wheelock discussion" or "relevancy" and so let's leave it as such.
for (8), TUB has requested to discuss it through PM. Since it is his scorecard, let's respect that. Alternatively he has options - I think he has a blog too, so maybe can discuss there? Or if he wants, he can setup a "TUB score card" thread under others.
lets make my post as the last post on this issue. thanks for the continuous contribution.
@ weijian and TUBInvesting
VB is a public platform.
I don’t see any value in doing it through “private mode” – as I view it to be against the spirit of sharing.
What is the point of joining a public forum and request discussions/debates to be carried out in a “private mode”? This is not in line with the spirit of public sharing, IMO.
Being a public platform, what is the point of ALLOWING buddies to carry out discussions/debates behind close doors? This is not in line with the spirit of public sharing.
If one has the courage to share one’s work in a public forum – one must be prepared to clarify and/or defend one’s work publicly when questioned, challenged, criticized or even “blasted”
TUB came to VB to share his analysis on Wheelock Properties using his unique scorecard model – hence any comments on TUB’s scorecard model with respect to Wheelock analysis would still remain relevant, I reckon.
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Hello to all VBs ,
I fully agree with Boon ! What is the point of coming to VB forum and end up sharing privately, unless something which is really personal . This will only make VB a more inactive forum .
hi all,
the moderator reiterates again. TUB as developer of HIS scorecard hopes to do it in PM mode. The moderator is respecting this wish n if there is a need, pls start a new thread and dont hijack this one.
There is no intent from moderator to stop active discussion in a public forum but each individual's wishes (esp on their own work) shd be respected, imo and there is no need to pursue a witch hunt. Those who already know it doesnt make sense, dont need further justification to themselves, imo.
This will be moderator's last post to this issue. Further action may be taken if moderator sees a violation (non related to wheelock discussion) again.
IMHO things relevant/related directly to the company are of course better shared on the forum. Things not relevant to the company would be considered off-topic and could be discussed on a new thread in the Others section or whatever relevant section.
PM is just another avenue for further discussion between members, not much different from direct emails which I reckon everyone has freedom to choose how they communicate. Don't like it then dun PM loh, dun like the particular member? there is always the ignore list.
My take on Wheelock.
Looking at charts.
Share price : around $1.50 now.
Pre-GFC property bubble in USA time, hit almost $3.50 in 2007 and declined till hit below $1 during GFC and since QE1 recovered to trade around $1.7-$2 range with dips every couple years to $1.50 level when market was bad - end 2011, early 2014 and mid2015(china stock crash). Since mid 2015 last year no recovery yet back to higher $2 level.
All the while consistently giving out 6cents dividend. 4% if you bought at $1.50 lows in recent years and 3% yield if bought at $2 high. Whilst some may feel 4% is decent, IMHO its pretty lousy
NAV $2.52 vs price $1.50 [40 % discount, probably more if use RNAV]
HK Property sector. There has been a rebound since mid year from Chinese running funds over to HK to escape devaluating yuan. Big risks :
1) HK gov started the 15% levy last month (we can see the effect from Canada doing a 15% recently too)
2) Fund flows back to US from emerging markets, trump story, reversal of carry trades.
3) Devaluation of yuan and China decrease exports and decrease imports could hit HK economy in a big way.
4) Increasing public anger towards China and wanting independence (unlikely to succeed, but civil unrest can dampen property investment)
Wheelock will probably languish around $1.50 for now and might slowly go to $1 GFC prices if things get bad. However, given so many risks, IMHO only a privatisation offer be the likely catalyst for any significant share price move.
-n v-
VB consists of buddies - many of whom have contributed positively to the forum.
As nobody is perfect, each of us has his/her own strengths and weaknesses.
For a given event, sometimes, one could see what other buddies fail to see – at times, one fails to see what other buddies could see.
A conviction to one could be a confusion to others, and vice versa.
convex could be easily mistaken to be concave, at times.
To convince or not to convince ?
To confuse or not to confuse ?
To be convinced or to be confused ?
Is it a concern ?
It is not a concern，as long as it is being conducted in a constructive manner.
It is not a concern, as long as it is consistantly and conscientiously being contended in the spirit of sharing and learning from each other.
And I don’t see how this spirit has been violated in anyway.
Also, there is this concept which embraces confusion as part of the learning process – which I strongly subscribe to.
I don't see it is in anyone's interest if this "game" of convincing and confusion were to be discontinued - IMO, in the spirit of sharing and learning it should be continued.
confused or convinced - ultimately, one should draw his/her own conclusion in one's investment decision making - and be fully responsible for its consequences.
Let’s confront and continue to ENJOY this learning process – what is there to lose ?
http://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-2094-...l#pid90412
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(02-12-2016, 10:56 PM)Scg8866t Wrote: [ -> ]Yes nothing ad hominem, just a clarification on how to justify certain aspect of a valuation that might be subjective to some.
Anyway back to wheelock. From their sales of ardmore three and panaroma, we should see massive cash inflow into its coffers next year(maybe reaching a bil). Which could potentially lead to a special div or a big subtantial landbank purchase(australia perhaps?). I find their assets and associate assets to be very synergised. They can also easily maximize gfa by forming a link between wheelock place and hilton/four seasons to conquer the western orchard belt. To each his/her own.
How do you get the $1 billion figure? As of 3Q 2016 Wheelock has about $400m cash.
The Panorama was already 94% sold as of FY 2015, wouldn't those sales have already contributed to the current cash pile?
7 units of Ardmore Three were sold by end-2015 vs 50 sold as of the MRQ, so 43 units have been sold so far this year. Each unit is about 1750 square feet, so assuming an average PSF of $3300, that's close to $250m. But why would that cash only flow into Wheelock's coffers next year?
(04-12-2016, 03:53 PM)weijian Wrote: [ -> ]hi all,
the moderator reiterates again. TUB as developer of HIS scorecard hopes to do it in PM mode. The moderator is respecting this wish n if there is a need, pls start a new thread and dont hijack this one.
There is no intent from moderator to stop active discussion in a public forum but each individual's wishes (esp on their own work) shd be respected, imo and there is no need to pursue a witch hunt. Those who already know it doesnt make sense, dont need further justification to themselves, imo.
This will be moderator's last post to this issue. Further action may be taken if moderator sees a violation (non related to wheelock discussion) again.
@ weijian
“each individual's wishes (esp on their own work) shd be respected”
True, TUB spent time developing his own scorecard which he thinks works – this is his own work and should be respected.
TUB came to VB (a public forum) to share his analysis on Wheelock Properties using his unique scorecard model.
I spent time looking at his analysis and model and I am convinced that there are flaws and weakness in his analysis on Wheelock using his scorecard model – this is my findings based on my own works – and I wish to share this on the public platform - shouldn’t my wish and my own works be respected as well?
@ TUBInvesting
What is your rationale for wanting to do it in PM mode?
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(04-12-2016, 10:15 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: [ -> ]IMHO things relevant/related directly to the company are of course better shared on the forum. Things not relevant to the company would be considered off-topic and could be discussed on a new thread in the Others section or whatever relevant section.
PM is just another avenue for further discussion between members, not much different from direct emails which I reckon everyone has freedom to choose how they communicate. Don't like it then dun PM loh, dun like the particular member? there is always the ignore list.
My take on Wheelock.
Looking at charts.
Share price : around $1.50 now.
Pre-GFC property bubble in USA time, hit almost $3.50 in 2007 and declined till hit below $1 during GFC and since QE1 recovered to trade around $1.7-$2 range with dips every couple years to $1.50 level when market was bad - end 2011, early 2014 and mid2015(china stock crash). Since mid 2015 last year no recovery yet back to higher $2 level.
All the while consistently giving out 6cents dividend. 4% if you bought at $1.50 lows in recent years and 3% yield if bought at $2 high. Whilst some may feel 4% is decent, IMHO its pretty lousy
NAV $2.52 vs price $1.50 [40 % discount, probably more if use RNAV]
HK Property sector. There has been a rebound since mid year from Chinese running funds over to HK to escape devaluating yuan. Big risks :
1) HK gov started the 15% levy last month (we can see the effect from Canada doing a 15% recently too)
2) Fund flows back to US from emerging markets, trump story, reversal of carry trades.
3) Devaluation of yuan and China decrease exports and decrease imports could hit HK economy in a big way.
4) Increasing public anger towards China and wanting independence (unlikely to succeed, but civil unrest can dampen property investment)
Wheelock will probably languish around $1.50 for now and might slowly go to $1 GFC prices if things get bad. However, given so many risks, IMHO only a privatisation offer be the likely catalyst for any significant share price move.
-n v-
Does Wheelock Properties has any exposure to the HK property sector?
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