I think he is stating the obvious simply because he is Jim... please tell us something that we dunno...
"Pre-empting any request for hot tips, Mr Rogers advised young investors to research and think for themselves: "You got to be able to buy things that other people don't want to buy. You got to be able to sell short things that everybody loves. Being a successful investor is not easy ... you got to do the homework.""
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/premium/...s-20140804
PUBLISHED AUGUST 04, 2014
Next crisis will be worse: Rogers
World's debts are up to the ceiling now, seminar told
BYCAI YONG
caiyong@sph.com.sg
[SINGAPORE] Investment guru Jim Rogers says the next global financial crisis may not be around the corner but, when it comes, it will be worse than ever.
The signs of a crisis building up are already there, he said on Saturday at a seminar that was part of the Investment Fair Singapore 2014 exhibition. Global debts are already "up to the ceiling now".
"We had an economic problem in the world in 2008," Mr Rogers warned. "It was much worse than before because debt was so much higher than in world history. The next time it happens, it's going to be worse still."
He said this is not going to happen in the next several months, or even in a year or two, because central banks remain ready to step in at the first sign of trouble.
I was actually at his talk and I agree with him actually.
Its obvious simply because most of what works in investing is really rational and not that hard to apply. It's the way approach investing that's irrational... and this is the approach most people choose to take.
It's all about hard work, buying when people are afraid, and sticking to what you know. Those are the same principles that Ben Graham taught us way starting in 1930.
It hasn't changed a bit.
Regards,
theasiareport.com
(04-08-2014, 06:08 AM)greengiraffe Wrote: [ -> ]I think he is stating the obvious simply because he is Jim... please tell us something that we dunno...
"Pre-empting any request for hot tips, Mr Rogers advised young investors to research and think for themselves: "You got to be able to buy things that other people don't want to buy. You got to be able to sell short things that everybody loves. Being a successful investor is not easy ... you got to do the homework.""
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/premium/...s-20140804
It is meaningless to predict a worse next crisis. When is next crisis? What is "next" crisis? What if next crisis is not worse? does it count? there is always more "next" if it does not count.
There is never really a real crisis. What is a crisis to someone may be be an opportunity of windfall for the others.
(04-08-2014, 09:22 AM)freedom Wrote: [ -> ]It is meaningless to predict a worse next crisis. When is next crisis? What is "next" crisis? What if next crisis is not worse? does it count? there is always more "next" if it does not count.
Agree. Unless you can roughly pinpoint a timeline a stopped clock is also right, not once but TWICE a day
If we are always concern about black swan, we will do nothing. As per my posts, we have to keep in mind black swans and the environment we are in, but we can manage our risks. I know we are in an asset bubble say in UK and Australia, but we will not know when it will burst, how one navigate and position becomes important because the world is ALWAYS uncertain. If say UK can deflate the bubble as China and HK are attempting, then the analysis changes.
Govts are obviously overleveraged and household are leveraged by asset bubbles, but corporate balance sheets are in general fine. How policy makers try to solve these issues will affect the analysis. the world is dynamic
Predict crisis? Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
i think is very risky to act based on what he says. For many who have not been in the market for 5 years is an extended CRISIS too amid a personal one.
What we do know is that there is plenty of cash and regulations to control the mayhem. So i personally feel we are far from crisis. Correction yes which comes on/off.
(04-08-2014, 10:19 AM)specuvestor Wrote: [ -> ] (04-08-2014, 09:22 AM)freedom Wrote: [ -> ]It is meaningless to predict a worse next crisis. When is next crisis? What is "next" crisis? What if next crisis is not worse? does it count? there is always more "next" if it does not count.
Agree. Unless you can roughly pinpoint a timeline a stopped clock is also right, not once but TWICE a day
If we are always concern about black swan, we will do nothing. As per my posts, we have to keep in mind black swans and the environment we are in, but we can manage our risks. I know we are in an asset bubble say in UK and Australia, but we will not know when it will burst, how one navigate and position becomes important because the world is ALWAYS uncertain. If say UK can deflate the bubble as China and HK are attempting, then the analysis changes.
Govts are obviously overleveraged and household are leveraged by asset bubbles, but corporate balance sheets are in general fine. How policy makers try to solve these issues will affect the analysis. the world is dynamic
I don't agree that government has high leverage. One is how to define government leverage. The other is that government can monetize its local currency debt. As far as local currency debt is concerned, government has no limit on leverage.
As for household, I don't see any significant leverage increase in Singapore households. liabilities/asset is still around 20%. For US households, their leverage is very low in a long long period. Aggregate, the US household holds 95 trillion in asset and less than 14 trillion in liabilities.
Singapore household balance sheet:
www.singstat.gov.sg/statistics/browse_by_theme/economy/time_series/hhldbalance1q14.xls
www.singstat.gov.sg/publications/publications_and_papers/reference/yearbook_2014/excel/topic17.xls
US household balance sheet:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z.../z1r-5.pdf
You can see how low the leverage of the US household since the financial crisis.
Bear market doesn't always happens because suddenly there is a Black Swan or crisis. Though it usually does because of it. i say the most important thing, regardless of why and when, is when it happens, what we are doing at that time determines our investment fortune. That's for better or for worse. Remember if we do nothing, we will definitely miss something. And may be poorer because of it.
Don't take it as market timing because you know surely it's going to happen in just a matter of one day.
Have you made some sort of preparation for it?
Maybe you have a different perspective or outlook.
That's O. K. if don't lose money.
non brainer headline. next crisis won't be called one if it is not worse..