I think Jim Rogers was alluding to the fact that governments have leveraged up significantly to alleviate the problems of the last crisis.
Thus they are running out of ammunition if a downturn hits.
You can't keep printing money forever before people lose faith in the currency.
Regards,
theasiareport.com
"When you have so much stabilty, particulatly at very low yields, what everyone does is they reach for yield, and they take on riskier and riskier positions. When something causes the balloon to blow up, then you're in real trouble," said Mr Goodhart.
The consultancy cast doubt over the official rate of non-performing loans in the chinese banking system, which is close to zero. "It's pretty ugly," said Mr Gabay. "The peak in the Japanese banking crisis saw NPLs at around 20pc of gross domestic product (GDP). Our estimate is that China is at around 17pc."
(That's why Chinese banks trade below book value)
Global economy one shock away from another crisis
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econo...risis.html
The part about businesses reaching for yield is true.
There are quite a few small business owners I spoke to who did not know what to do with excess cash.
They are reaching for projects with low yields with relatively high risk or going into new areas of business which they are not 100% familiar with. They want to put their money to use and didnt want it to be stuck in FD which yields next to nothing.
Property was the favorite place to invest on but with the current market stuck in neutral and likely to turn negative, no savvy business man in the right mind would be investing now in property.(especially residential or industrial property)
Personally I think it's time to generally do nothing. or be very selective about what to invest in, there are still very small pockets of opportunities in the stock market(US).
(05-08-2014, 10:21 PM)Behappyalways Wrote: [ -> ]"When you have so much stabilty, particulatly at very low yields, what everyone does is they reach for yield, and they take on riskier and riskier positions. When something causes the balloon to blow up, then you're in real trouble," said Mr Goodhart.
The consultancy cast doubt over the official rate of non-performing loans in the chinese banking system, which is close to zero. "It's pretty ugly," said Mr Gabay. "The peak in the Japanese banking crisis saw NPLs at around 20pc of gross domestic product (GDP). Our estimate is that China is at around 17pc."
(That's why Chinese banks trade below book value)
Global economy one shock away from another crisis
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econo...risis.html
One more estimation of "true" China bank NPL, i.e. 17%. A nice input.
My estimation has wider range, falls between 5% - 30%. The 17% fall nicely in the middle of the range...
(06-08-2014, 02:51 AM)Big Toe Wrote: [ -> ]The part about businesses reaching for yield is true.
There are quite a few small business owners I spoke to who did not know what to do with excess cash.
They are reaching for projects with low yields with relatively high risk or going into new areas of business which they are not 100% familiar with. They want to put their money to use and didnt want it to be stuck in FD which yields next to nothing.
Property was the favorite place to invest on but with the current market stuck in neutral and likely to turn negative, no savvy business man in the right mind would be investing now in property.(especially residential or industrial property)
Personally I think it's time to generally do nothing. or be very selective about what to invest in, there are still very small pockets of opportunities in the stock market(US).
Good advice sifu, I like to follow your postings since wallstraits times
This is the result of QE asset bubble deflating stage...
Gold is plunging down...what next?