Musicwhiz,
Very comprehensive coverage on Kingsmen. Well done. This stock is in my radar as well, but I've got two questions.
1. The stock does not seem to be very liquid. As such, it is hard to buy it at lower price than the bid price, unless I buy it at ask price. What do you think?
2. How do you calculate the FCF? As far as I know, there are two ways
a) FCF = Operating Cashflow - Capital Expenditure
b) FCF = Net income after tax + depreciation/amortisation - capital expenditure - change in working capital
Which method did you use?
The new order was down yoy basis:
S$61M compared to S$70M.
(11-05-2012, 06:43 AM)valuestalker Wrote: [ -> ]The new order was down yoy basis:
S$61M compared to S$70M.
Hi, I refer to 1Q 2011 results released May 6, 2011, Page 15, Note 10. It says "As at 5 May 2011, we have been awarded contracts of approximately $154m." For 1Q 2012 results Page 14, Note 10, it mentions that as at May 9, 2012, $167m worth of contracts had been awarded. This is an increase of $13m worth of contracts (+8.4%).
(11-05-2012, 01:09 AM)Some-one Wrote: [ -> ]Musicwhiz,
Very comprehensive coverage on Kingsmen. Well done. This stock is in my radar as well, but I've got two questions.
1. The stock does not seem to be very liquid. As such, it is hard to buy it at lower price than the bid price, unless I buy it at ask price. What do you think?
2. How do you calculate the FCF? As far as I know, there are two ways
a) FCF = Operating Cashflow - Capital Expenditure
b) FCF = Net income after tax + depreciation/amortisation - capital expenditure - change in working capital
Which method did you use?
Hi Some-one,
Yes it's not very liquid because many people are buying to keep, not buying for a quick trade. This may explain the low turnover.
As for the two formulae above for FCF, note that (NPAT + depreciation/amort - changes in working capital) = OCF! So in actual fact both formulae are the same!
Hi,
Correct me if my calculation is wrong:
As per 21 Feb 2011: $84
5 May 2011: $154
New orders (73days): $70
As per 25 Feb 2012: $106
9 May 2012: $167
New orders (74days): $61
Kingsmen did mentioned lack of manpower for projects.
This could be the reason on the small gain on new projects
(11-05-2012, 07:25 AM)Musicwhiz Wrote: [ -> ] (11-05-2012, 06:43 AM)valuestalker Wrote: [ -> ]The new order was down yoy basis:
S$61M compared to S$70M.
Hi, I refer to 1Q 2011 results released May 6, 2011, Page 15, Note 10. It says "As at 5 May 2011, we have been awarded contracts of approximately $154m." For 1Q 2012 results Page 14, Note 10, it mentions that as at May 9, 2012, $167m worth of contracts had been awarded. This is an increase of $13m worth of contracts (+8.4%).
(11-05-2012, 01:09 AM)Some-one Wrote: [ -> ]Musicwhiz,
Very comprehensive coverage on Kingsmen. Well done. This stock is in my radar as well, but I've got two questions.
1. The stock does not seem to be very liquid. As such, it is hard to buy it at lower price than the bid price, unless I buy it at ask price. What do you think?
2. How do you calculate the FCF? As far as I know, there are two ways
a) FCF = Operating Cashflow - Capital Expenditure
b) FCF = Net income after tax + depreciation/amortisation - capital expenditure - change in working capital
Which method did you use?
Hi Some-one,
Yes it's not very liquid because many people are buying to keep, not buying for a quick trade. This may explain the low turnover.
As for the two formulae above for FCF, note that (NPAT + depreciation/amort - changes in working capital) = OCF! So in actual fact both formulae are the same!
I thought the two methods are not the same.
Correct me if i am wrong.
The first method includes write-off,impairement,provision,interest income/expenses (accrual basis) and etc which is not found in method 2.
(11-05-2012, 07:55 AM)valuestalker Wrote: [ -> ]Hi,
Correct me if my calculation is wrong:
As per 21 Feb 2011: $84
5 May 2011: $154
New orders (73days): $70
As per 25 Feb 2012: $106
9 May 2012: $167
New orders (74days): $61
Hi valuestalker,
Your calculation is absolutely correct, no worries.
I was more coming from the perspective of a higher level of revenues to be recognized for FY 2012 against FY 2011. The new orders gained and reported every quarter are subject to timing differences as these are contracts which are awarded as and when clients require fit-out works or when there are events.
Hi camelking,
yeah my understanding is when there are such items to be net off, then the formula is slightly different. But in general those items should suffice in coming up with OCF.
Hi Mw,
Notice the lumpiness of orders.
Jst highlighting as i track the orders very closely.
imo, it will pretty much tell the next few quarters revenue.
And for me to watch the orders trend as well.
Having said that, i am not too concern about a quarter down order but rather as a flag to watch.
(11-05-2012, 01:42 PM)valuestalker Wrote: [ -> ]Hi Mw,
Notice the lumpiness of orders.
Jst highlighting as i track the orders very closely.
imo, it will pretty much tell the next few quarters revenue.
And for me to watch the orders trend as well.
Having said that, i am not too concern about a quarter down order but rather as a flag to watch.
Yeah, thanks. Perhaps I'd just like to add that I am not trying to be overly optimistic about Kingsmen's prospects (tough considering I am vested), but am trying to analyze the numbers in an objective manner and making conclusions and forecasts based on historical trends and numbers, as well as basing it on the business model.
I acknowledge the lumpiness in terms of revenues and earnings recognition, but ultimately if you dislike the lumpiness then compare full year numbers instead of quarterlies. I think that will help to smooth out any lumpiness.
Cheers!
Latest research on Kingsmen by DMG, as attached.