08-09-2017, 10:27 AM
(07-09-2017, 11:24 AM)Ben Wrote: [ -> ](06-09-2017, 07:52 PM)Millionfaith Wrote: [ -> ]I refer to this ST article dated 5 Sept 2017
http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/tr...1504616898
The article said "the market is simply not big enough to support a taxi/private-hire fleet size of more than 70,000 - up from 28,000 cabs before Uber and Grab entered the fray in 2013". The author also did some workings based on assumption and worked out to 4.6 trips per day per private-hire car for the current over supply situation. However, it takes seven to 10 trips (average 10km/trip) to cover daily rental and fuel.
There is not enough passengers to go around. Eventually some drivers will quit and look for other income. I wonder if the private hire or taxi fare will come down to attract more passengers. Anyway, the industry will eventually find equilibrium, hopefully it does not take too long.
I dont quite understand the calculation in arriving at 4.6 trips per day, but I am very sure this number is not correct. I am a Uber driver for more than 2 years already. While it is true that more drivers are competing for passengers, but I can still comfortably get, on average, 5 trips in the morning from 7.30am to 10am. However, the average fare/trip has gone down over times, a sign that supply is increasing faster than demand. Also, it is a fact that Uber is losing competiton to Grab, and the gap between them seems to be widening. So, I believe CDG and Uber will try to make the marriage works, to fight the competition.
I read the article. IMO, the flaw is on the assumption of a re-distribution of demand. Disruptive means breaking the current norms, thus we need to stay open on new norms and new demands.
IMO, there is no over-supply. More un-met demand still available. LTA imposed peak time and minimum mileage for taxi years ago, taxi availability has gone up with higher utilisation rate. It indicated more demands met. While the taxi idling rate went up, but private hired car population went up many times more over the same period. IMO, it is to meet the real demand, rather than a illusion of growth.
https://www.lta.gov.sg/apps/news/page.as...17d4fb43bb
http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/tr...-by-a-mile
The situation is there is a shift of supply from taxies to private-hired cars. Is there an over-supply? I reckon, there is still un-met demand, based on the incentives to take more call, offered by all market players. The idling taxies, is just the outcome of competition, rather than market trend.
Is the current model sustainable? Definitely not. Business model wouldn't sustain without profit. Market players are trying various models, and new technologies are emerging. I am optimistic to see a success with probably two or more dominant players in near future.