I am not too worry on the performance of Singapore properties in Sim Lim Square + City Plaza. But it is a good practice to take a walk around there
IMO, the short-term focus should be the expansion into M'sia, both for apparel and properties businesses.
based on the AR 2011, they have 71 properties. only 1 property is in KL, Malaysia.
it will be interesting to see how they expand in Malaysia if they do
It seem SecondChance attracts major market players attention in the last few market days
The market price stay above $0.41, with multi-millions shares transacted.
The same for the two (2) warrants.
The new warrant (W170724) is valued @0.039, which mean the 3-years forward valuation of share is $0.439
Should be more than +0.039 to compensate for the volatility
(10-09-2012, 05:17 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ]The new warrant (W170724) is valued @0.039, which mean the 3-years forward valuation of share is $0.439
the closing stock price is 0.41
the warrant has a strike of 0.40. maturing 2017, if u assume a dividend rate of 5-10% and no stock splits,
the forward price is 0.29.
based on a close warrant price of 0.039, the implied volatility is ard 35%. which is pretty close to the 1y sampled realised volatility, but rather low compared to the 3y historical, so looks quite cheap actually.
i'm not sure how useful implied volatility analysis is for these warrants though - u dun get enougn contracts to do a spread
and unless borrowiing costs of scrips is cheap enough, u cannot really go short and trade the gamma either.
Hm... actually I sold my warrants in the market after they issued it and bought the mother shares instead. Personally I'd expect better returns from warrants instead of a straight out profit from the strike price + warrant price. That's why I assume the warrant buyers would think in the same way.... though they might just be gambling ;p volatility analysis is a little too much effort for me >.<" not that I have in depth knowledge on the topic.
From my understanding, 2nd Chance's retail business have not shown any signs of trouble, and the CEO have a good track record of profiting from buying/selling properties. They are also vested in AA REIT. Considering the rise in AA REIT pricing, 2nd Chance offers better yields with a good profitable retail business to continue their mortgages and other 'expenses' should there be a credit squeeze. Throw it in with the expected low interest rates, I'm willing to park my money there for awhile.
For the 2nd batch of warrants, does it get deposited into your
CDP acct automatically? If so, when?
I have been checking my CDP acct but I don't see any warrants in there.
(11-09-2012, 08:51 AM)changwk Wrote: [ -> ]For the 2nd batch of warrants, does it get deposited into your
CDP acct automatically? If so, when?
I have been checking my CDP acct but I don't see any warrants in there.
The bonus warrants already issued and credited to shareholders CDP since end Jul 2012. I assume you had missed the record date, and not entitled to the bonus warrants.
(11-09-2012, 10:03 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ] (11-09-2012, 08:51 AM)changwk Wrote: [ -> ]For the 2nd batch of warrants, does it get deposited into your
CDP acct automatically? If so, when?
I have been checking my CDP acct but I don't see any warrants in there.
The bonus warrants already issued and credited to shareholders CDP since end Jul 2012. I assume you had missed the record date, and not entitled to the bonus warrants.
Agree. i have even sold my 2nd 2017 warrrants. haha
(11-09-2012, 12:44 AM)piggo Wrote: [ -> ]Hm... actually I sold my warrants in the market after they issued it and bought the mother shares instead. Personally I'd expect better returns from warrants instead of a straight out profit from the strike price + warrant price. That's why I assume the warrant buyers would think in the same way.... though they might just be gambling ;p volatility analysis is a little too much effort for me >.<" not that I have in depth knowledge on the topic.
From my understanding, 2nd Chance's retail business have not shown any signs of trouble, and the CEO have a good track record of profiting from buying/selling properties. They are also vested in AA REIT. Considering the rise in AA REIT pricing, 2nd Chance offers better yields with a good profitable retail business to continue their mortgages and other 'expenses' should there be a credit squeeze. Throw it in with the expected low interest rates, I'm willing to park my money there for awhile.
Volatility analysis is too "chim" for me, and i assume it is little use for value investor
Rationally, In order to fully participate the long term growth story of the company, it is wise to keep the warrants, instead of just selling now with 3.9 cts for an immediate 10% profit
IMO, There is likely a high-growth period in the next 5 years. In order to achieve the vision statement of the company, it is likely a bonus share award in the next 3 years, and warrant strike price will be adjusted down accordingly. The warrant might return much more than 10% then.