20-09-2013, 09:53 PM
Asian shipbuilding sector poised for turnaround as order momentum improves
http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/News...e4719aaeb9
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But DBS Group cautioned against over-optimism on Asian shipbuilders. While the worst is probably over, the research house said the industry is still plagued with overcapacity issue, and any rebound may take some time.
JP Morgan Research went further to say that despite a recovery in new building orders, historical trends will not be a reliable guide to drivers going forward. Longer-term changes in the industry will be driven by an eco-ship replacement and this new cycle is still in a very early stage.
JP Morgan explained that the rising importance of fuel efficiency will change the Asian shipbuilding landscape in the medium to long term. It said there would be an unprecedented replacement cycle for ships over the next decade, driven by fuel efficiency. Most existing ships will become less useful and are likely to be scrapped much earlier than expected.
In this new cycle, labor cost will become less important, whereas technology and quality will be increasingly important amid tightening environmental regulations.
Based on such trend, JP Morgan expects South Korean yards to strengthen their first position thanks to newly designed eco-ships, and Japan will emerge as the second shipbuilding country, ahead of China, up to 2015 due to the diminishing productivity gaps and focus on fuel efficiency.
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It seems the "famine to feast" symdrome might be already creeping in
http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/News...e4719aaeb9
-----------------
But DBS Group cautioned against over-optimism on Asian shipbuilders. While the worst is probably over, the research house said the industry is still plagued with overcapacity issue, and any rebound may take some time.
JP Morgan Research went further to say that despite a recovery in new building orders, historical trends will not be a reliable guide to drivers going forward. Longer-term changes in the industry will be driven by an eco-ship replacement and this new cycle is still in a very early stage.
JP Morgan explained that the rising importance of fuel efficiency will change the Asian shipbuilding landscape in the medium to long term. It said there would be an unprecedented replacement cycle for ships over the next decade, driven by fuel efficiency. Most existing ships will become less useful and are likely to be scrapped much earlier than expected.
In this new cycle, labor cost will become less important, whereas technology and quality will be increasingly important amid tightening environmental regulations.
Based on such trend, JP Morgan expects South Korean yards to strengthen their first position thanks to newly designed eco-ships, and Japan will emerge as the second shipbuilding country, ahead of China, up to 2015 due to the diminishing productivity gaps and focus on fuel efficiency.
----------------------------
It seems the "famine to feast" symdrome might be already creeping in