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Since two years ago when this thread was started, I have been negative on bread talk. Today my position is still the same. I am however, happy that fellow value buddies have enjoyed a tremendous capital appreciation from about 50 cents to 90 cents.  nevertheless, I find it incredulous how the share price is appreciating, given the fact that fundamentals has been more or less the same and isn't expected to improve.
Rent and labour will continue to keep a lid on profits. It is now more difficult than before to hire inexpensive labour as a result of foreign worker quota restrictions. This is the case that affects the entire f&b industry. And as most of bread talk group's outlets are in (REIT) malls, they will undoubtedly face continued cost pressure from landlords every time the mall is given a makeover.
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(08-03-2013, 10:11 PM)karlmarx Wrote: Since two years ago when this thread was started, I have been negative on bread talk. Today my position is still the same. I am however, happy that fellow value buddies have enjoyed a tremendous capital appreciation from about 50 cents to 90 cents. nevertheless, I find it incredulous how the share price is appreciating, given the fact that fundamentals has been more or less the same and isn't expected to improve.
Rent and labour will continue to keep a lid on profits. It is now more difficult than before to hire inexpensive labour as a result of foreign worker quota restrictions. This is the case that affects the entire f&b industry. And as most of bread talk group's outlets are in (REIT) malls, they will undoubtedly face continued cost pressure from landlords every time the mall is given a makeover.
I am agreeable as well.I was vested around sub 50 but got out quite awhile ago. It was a value play around sub 50 levels. However valuation got rich closing in on to 70c. At current valuation its too rich to be considered a value play.
Price is just a number. Those that are sitting on healthy profits. I am happy for all of you. But as valuation gets richer, margin of safety shrinks considerably.
Every individual has his or her valuation method and own margin of safety. There is no right or wrong just different angles and view on the same company.
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(08-03-2013, 09:18 PM)RBM Wrote: (07-03-2013, 07:50 PM)wozhaodaole Wrote: don't you guys think PE 20x for a small cap illiquid stock is just crazy and defies logic? and for a stock with earnings growth of 8-10%? it is definitely not a value stock!
what on earth is happening to our stock market....
I sense that my posting of yesterday evening regarding BreadTalk's Thursday share price performance caused some annoyance to some forummers.
Well I'm afraid this VB posting is going to be even more annoying ..........
Today BreadTalk's share price climbed a further 7.1/4% to close at S$ 0.89. I only saw a slight wobble during the mid-afternoon's trading at about the S$ 0.88 level but the counter ended the day strongly. Volume was a very decent ~ 1.3 Million shares (I do not believe recent BreadTalk trading volumes can be charachterised as "illiquid"). BreadTalk's share price has now gained ~ 13.4% in the last two SGX trading sessions.
I agree that key valuation metrics appear stretched, to say the least, e.g. Dividend Yield is ~ 1.5% and P/E is now ~ 21. This for a company which is fighting to keep margins up and recently reduced its FY dividend y-o-y. I can only conclude that stake-building is going on. So I'm hanging on for the time being.
Lest any forummer thinks I am gloating, I'm not - Cheung Woh, Olam Bonds, Q&M and Techcomp have all had a pretty tough time of late and regrettably I'm vested in all four. Darn sobering.
As an aside ........... this entire VB BreadTalk thread - from begining to where it stands today - makes for a fascinating read - and we are only 60 posts in, with possibly "the more interesting stuff" yet to come. One day some bright student youngster may use it as a basis for a case study, vis-a-vis the "physchology" of investing (and not investing). HaHa!
Vested
no la. nobody is annoyed at all. i don't think you are gloating too.
im making a reference to breadtalk, not you.
it's just my opinion that the valuation of these small caps are absolutely warped at the moment.
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............. and today BreadTalk's share price is down > 10% in volume just above 600,000 shares. May be BreadTalk's BoD should announce they are investigating the possibility of setting up a REIT !!!!
Vested
RBM, Retired Botanic MatSalleh
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Rich retail investor Sell Down... some kelong activity going on?
Vested.
![[Image: BT%252020130311%2520VolDist%2520Retail%2...ercent.png]](https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-1eIT-j8T0sE/UT287y4gqcI/AAAAAAAAAxk/sYKSKGAeetY/s400/BT%252020130311%2520VolDist%2520Retail%2520Sell%2520Price%2520down%252010%2520percent.png)
(11-03-2013, 05:20 PM)RBM Wrote: ............. and today BreadTalk's share price is down > 10% in volume just above 600,000 shares. May be BreadTalk's BoD should announce they are investigating the possibility of setting up a REIT !!!!
Vested
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KimEng analyst report dated 27Mar2013.
Have a MINT, Have a BreadTalk
A prized jewel to be swept up.
Primacy Investment, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Minor International (MINT) in Thailand, surfaced as a shareholder in January and purchased an additional 2.58% last week at an average of SGD0.83 a share, reaffirming our suspicions that Minor may just be getting started. As one of the largest hospitality and leisure companies in Asia, MINT has a track record of acquiring established restaurant brands, namely Coffee Club and Thai Express in Singapore.
With BreadTalk’s premium reputation as a bread operator, and entrenched position in Asia, this could be the prized jewel which Minor has been waiting for.
Who is Minor International (MINT)?
MINT is a hospitality business headquartered in Thailand. It operates over 1,300 restaurants and 80
hotels and resorts in Asia, the Middle East and Africa, and also has 200 retail outlets for lifestyle brands. In recent years, MINT has been steadily building up its restaurant brand portfolio, and recently acquired Riverside & Courtyard restaurant in China in Dec 2012 and Thai Express in Dec 2011.
Highly desirable brands all packaged into one. In our view, BreadTalk offers MINT an excellent portal to extend its cross-selling channels, as well as an opportunity to strengthen and add prominent brands to its growing overseas portfolio. BreadTalk is a leading bakery chain in Singapore, which has restaurants and cafes also figuring prominently in its portfolio. In China, it has acquired a reputation as a premium bakery operator and is poised to take advantage of the country’s rising affluence. BreadTalk’s established ties with local businessmen through franchising and JV agreements have also helped spur its growth in China and facilitate access to domestic resources.
What Minor could offer to BreadTalk in return.
We believe if BreadTalk wants to achieve greater success in China, it may have to join hands with large F&B conglomerates. The support of strong parent companies offers leverage and better expansion opportunities for bakery chains. For example, Saint Honore Holdings was privatised by Convenience Retail Asia (CRA), one of Li & Fung’s subsidiaries, for 15.6x 2006 PER. Maxim Caterers Hong Kong, an equally strong competitor, is 50% owned by Dairy Farm International.
Deserving of more premium valuations.
Current valuations of BreadTalk are below peers with a forward consensus P/E of 15.6x against 16.5x. Granted BreadTalk’s valuation is not too far off its peers.
One reason may be MINT believed that BreadTalk’s profits are understated by its expansion costs and the stock will look cheap once the expansion phase slows. We believe BreadTalk deserves a more premium valuation for its multi-country success in growing its bakery chain.
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BT hits $1.00 today with married deal of 3,225 lots strike on $0.95.
This bread is talking... 
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(01-04-2013, 11:11 AM)Ray168 Wrote: BT hits $1.00 today with married deal of 3,225 lots strike on $0.95.
This bread is talking... Indeed its been another good trading day for BreadTalk shares - i.e. up ~ 6.3% to S$ 1.005, yet another record closing high, in volume of just under 4.8 Million shares. That is an 18% rise in the last four SGX trading sessions and a 60% rise in the last four months, i.e. since 1 December 2012.
The last Primacy/MINT disclosure notice I read, dated 22 March 2013, was that they had built a 8.85% stake, or just under 25 Million BreadTalk shares. It will be interesting to see if Primacy/MINT have picked up any more BreadTalk shares today or last Thursday. With BreadTalk now trading on a P/E of ~ 24, it is difficult to believe that anything other than stakebuilding is propelling BreadTalk's share price. IMHO.
Vested
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Most likely they are buying to put the businesses into a listed company eventually. A collection of asia's leading brands.
Else why pay so much???
Totally no logic, got out at 90cts...
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Today another new high... close @ $1.07 or up 6.5%.
Infact, the share price increase 26% for the last 5 trading days.
There are increasing trend of retailers like us jumping into the band wagen. Bubble in the making?
(01-04-2013, 11:11 AM)Ray168 Wrote: BT hits $1.00 today with married deal of 3,225 lots strike on $0.95.
This bread is talking...
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