BT - Hock Lock Siew Column

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#1
Out of the 3 counters only Ezion is liquidity. Sarin and Talkmed are both illiquid and Talkmed was listed via introduction with literally no free float in the hands of retail public...

HOCK LOCK SIEW

Talkmed, Sarin & Ezion: putting to rest the myth of non-performance

BY R SIVANITHY
sivan@sph.com.sg
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The stock did dip to 68 cents a few days later, and then on Feb 11 jumped to 85 cents, a gain of almost 20 per cent in one day that drew a query from the Singapore Exchange - PHOTO: REUTERS
application/pdf iconEasy on the eye
ONE of the criticisms commonly heard of the local stock market is that it is a perennial underperformer.
Though classified as a developed market within the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index, it tends to be lumped together with emerging markets in Asia, and this has adversely affected the market's liquidity and performance. So conventional wisdom is that it is almost impossible to find massive outperformers here, or "ten-baggers", as brokers like to call those that are the holy grail of investing.
Maybe so. For some investors, Singapore might not be as exciting as other markets, but as the saying goes, "look and ye shall find". There are actually many "ten-baggers" available if one looks hard enough.
Today, we present three of the local market's most stunning performers in recent times - one that has managed to more than quadruple in about 10 weeks since listing with no analyst coverage; another which has risen 30 times in five years with only three local houses covering it; and a third, whose gain of over 25 times, also over five years, has come with plenty of analyst coverage.
The first is medical oncology group Talkmed Group, which listed on Catalist at the end of January and offered 105.1 million shares all via placement at 20 cents each. Those shares now trade for 95 cents - an astounding 375 per cent gain in about nine weeks, making it possibly the best performing initial public offering in the history of the local market.
Also, Talkmed's first-day performance on Jan 31 was perhaps the most impressive we've ever seen - it closed at 82 cents, a 310 per cent debut premium. (Clearly, the book-building process the company referred to in its announcement under the Plan of Distribution section to determine a suitable offer price didn't really yield useful market intelligence, but that's a separate discussion).
The stock did dip to 68 cents a few days later, and then on Feb 11 jumped to 85 cents, a gain of almost 20 per cent in one day that drew a query from the Singapore Exchange. After replying that it did not know of reasons for the rise, the stock has headed north since.
Talkmed is profitable - for the year ended Dec 31, 2013, it reported $28.2 million in after-tax profit, which gives it a historic earnings per share of 4.3 cents, or a price-earnings multiple of 22. Unfortunately, there is no analyst coverage, according to Bloomberg, so forecasts are not available.
An earnings multiple of 22 might be considered rich by some; on the other hand, the demand for good quality medical services cannot be underestimated. With such outperformance and potential on offer, broking houses should perhaps take a closer look at the company with a view to initiating coverage.
Three houses here do cover our next featured stock, Israeli diamond firm Sarine Technology, which sank to just 8 cents five years ago in the wake of the US subprime crisis but has since risen a staggering 32 times to $2.57. The three brokers are Maybank Kim Eng, Macquarie and CIMB, all with "buy" recommendations with target prices of $3.09, $2.78 and $2.59, respectively.
This year alone, Sarine's shares have gained almost 40 per cent; in the past 12 months, the rise has been almost 90 per cent. At present levels, Bloomberg gives Sarine's historic PE as 28 and prospective as 22 - slightly stretched but there's not too much cause for concern yet.
Before proceeding to our third feature though, a word of caution is warranted. Talkmed and Sarine are not very liquid counters, with trades averaging a few hundred thousand shares per day. (In yesterday's session, Sarine traded 1.05 million shares but 750,000 came from two married deals.)
If for any reason there is forced selling of shares pledged as collateral, prices could plunge as it does not take a lot of selling (or buying for that matter) to effect large price changes. So, even though both companies appear well-supported by earnings, traders should bear this in mind.
Our third stock isn't afflicted by poor liquidity. Oil and gas play Ezion Holdings' shares are always actively traded. Its performance over the past five years is just behind Sarine's - the stock has slowly crept up from 8 cents in early 2009 to $2.10 today. It has been an active player in the local corporate scene. Barely a few months after its takeover bid for Ocean Sky failed to materialise, Ezion is now proposing to buy a controlling stake in Catalist's JK Tech that may eventually lead to a full-fledged takeover bid.
Although the news has helped JK Tech's shares to treble, it hasn't really had much of an impact on Ezion's shares, which have fallen slightly since the announcement. Still, with 11 houses covering the company and target prices as high as $3.26 (from DBS Vickers) and with several above $2.50, Ezion's outperformance could well continue.
Sceptics might argue that three swallows do not a summer make, but rest assured that there are many more to be found. For now, these three will have to suffice to make the point that when it comes to the local stock market, large outperformance is highly possible.
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#2
PUBLISHED MAY 23, 2014
HOCK LOCK SIEW

More punch for SGX's queries, trade with caution warnings

BYR SIVANITHY
sivan@sph.com.sg @RSivanithyBT

IT is slightly more than two months since Singapore Exchange (SGX) introduced its "Trade With Caution" (TWC) warning notifications, which are sometimes issued when companies are unable to explain odd activity in their shares.
The number of TWCs handed out in recent weeks has dropped off sharply from the early days, suggesting that the exchange has become more circumspect when wielding its new regulatory tool. This is welcome because too many TWCs in circulation would dilute their usefulness.
However, if the entire querying/TWC warning mechanism is to serve its intended purpose of improving disclosure governance and discipline, the process should be improved. As it stands now, unusual activity typically triggers a query, followed by a reply which may or may not convey explanatory information, followed sometimes by a TWC and then the matter ends there.
Visible action
Is this good enough? Or should there be follow-up action, visible to the entire market, that would ensure that companies properly discharge their duties and responsibilities as required by a disclosure-based regime?
Consider, for example, companies that reply after SGX queries with possible explanations. In the past week there have been two such instances - Stats ChipPac and RH Petrogas. Both were asked to account for their share price movements and both said a possible explanation could be that they might be involved in takeovers.
Here, the next logical question for which the market would like an answer would be exactly when their takeover notifications were received. If it was early in the day of the activity or in the day(s) before, then more questions are possible, such as why trading was not halted and why no announcement was made.
By the same token, consider the example of companies who say they have no knowledge when approached by SGX, yet a few weeks later either make a material announcement or are the beneficiaries of a significant industry makeover.
In the latter category are transport companies such as SMRT, which a month ago was asked by the exchange to account for a sudden surge in its share price and replied that it did not know of any possible reasons for the move.
This was immediately followed by SGX issuing a TWC on trading of SMRT's shares. If the intention was to warn the public to exercise caution, it didn't work - the rail operator's shares continued rising, jumping sharply again earlier this week before the government on Wednesday announced landmark changes to the transport industry that would clearly benefit SMRT. In all, the stock has risen just under 50 per cent in about a month.
In a similar vein to cases where companies offer possible explanations, more questions are possible. For example, who were the main buyers throughout the past four weeks? When exactly was the company informed of the changes to the transport landscape?
It is possible that SGX's account managers in its regulatory and supervisory departments, whose task it is to oversee these companies, are asking precisely these questions but rather than keep the answers/findings private, they should be shared with the public.
To ensure greater transparency, the exchange should consider setting up a Queries/TWC (QT) watchlist, much like its present Watchlist. The latter contains names of loss-making companies who are in danger of losing their listing status, and the former should carry names of companies who have been queried and may or may not have TWCs issued.
QT list
There should be a QT icon on the exchange's homepage on its website that shows the QT list every day. Like short-selling data, weekly summaries can be compiled to help the market keep track of which companies are being queried, whether they have answered and what those answers were.
The current practice is to lump queries together with all sorts of company announcements every day, making it very difficult for investors to sift through this information.
The QT list should also give details of follow-up action if warranted, in the case of companies who reply only after a query with material information, or if they had replied in the negative but later made a significant announcement.
TWC was a decent addition to the exchange's signalling mechanism but details of follow-ups would be even more welcome.
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#3
Quote:
Quote:In a similar vein to cases where companies offer possible explanations, more questions are possible. For example, who were the main buyers throughout the past four weeks? When exactly was the company informed of the changes to the transport landscape?
It is possible that SGX's account managers in its regulatory and supervisory departments, whose task it is to oversee these companies, are asking precisely these questions but rather than keep the answers/findings private, they should be shared with the public.

Yes, like i posted very simply but more or less the same, "Who is /are the main buyers? (aka are there any "National Service" companies involved in the sudden jump in prices? 40 to 50% in matter of weeks?)
It's very hard to believe the main buyers are OPMI. during the last few weeks. Even now i dare not buy (to each his own idea).
WB:-

1) Rule # 1, do not lose money.
2) Rule # 2, refer to # 1.
3) Not until you can manage your emotions, you can manage your money.

Truism of Investments.
A) Buying a security is buying RISK not Return
B) You can control RISK (to a certain level, hopefully only.) But definitely not the outcome of the Return.

NB:-
My signature is meant for psychoing myself. No offence to anyone. i am trying not to lose money unnecessary anymore.
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#4
Many times is better not to be greedy. It cost nothing for missed opportunity. Is a big dent if you hit a landmine.

Just my Diary
corylogics.blogspot.com/


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#5
(24-05-2014, 11:29 AM)corydorus Wrote: Many times is better not to be greedy. It cost nothing for missed opportunity.

Exactly how I operate.
(but many Value Buddies will argue against-opportunity cost blar blar blar)

I frequently watch my GEM zoom pass without blinking my eyes.
For I a simple reason that I don't Iike to buy share.
Instead, I prefers others to sell to me.

So long as I got what I wanted, those "Missed" one, so be it.

我得,我辛。不得,我命。
如此而已。

Life is great!




Live with Passion, Lead with Compassion
感恩 26 April 2019 Straco AGM ppt  https://valuebuddies.com/thread-2915-pos...#pid152450
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#6
(24-05-2014, 11:53 AM)chialc88 Wrote:
(24-05-2014, 11:29 AM)corydorus Wrote: Many times is better not to be greedy. It cost nothing for missed opportunity.

Exactly how I operate.
(but many Value Buddies will argue against-opportunity cost blar blar blar)

I frequently watch my GEM zoom pass without blinking my eyes.
For I a simple reason that I don't Iike to buy share.
Instead, I prefers others to sell to me.

So long as I got what I wanted, those "Missed" one, so be it.

我得,我辛。不得,我命。
如此而已。

Life is great!




Live with Passion, Lead with Compassion

Well said.

Both are words of widom.

Thank you.
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#7
(24-05-2014, 01:45 PM)gutman Wrote:
(24-05-2014, 11:53 AM)chialc88 Wrote:
(24-05-2014, 11:29 AM)corydorus Wrote: Many times is better not to be greedy. It cost nothing for missed opportunity.

Exactly how I operate.
(but many Value Buddies will argue against-opportunity cost blar blar blar)

I frequently watch my GEM zoom pass without blinking my eyes.
For I a simple reason that I don't Iike to buy share.
Instead, I prefers others to sell to me.

So long as I got what I wanted, those "Missed" one, so be it.

我得,我辛。不得,我命。
如此而已。

Life is great!




Live with Passion, Lead with Compassion

Well said.

Both are words of widom.

Thank you.

Albeit Empress 舞折天 (was able to tackle a country's finance and) also did a lot of good things for her country.
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#8
Quote:Albeit Empress 武折天 (was able to tackle a country's finance and) also did a lot of good things for her country.

Should be 武则天。
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#9
(24-05-2014, 11:29 AM)corydorus Wrote: Many times is better not to be greedy. It cost nothing for missed opportunity. Is a big dent if you hit a landmine.
Well put.
Have you hit landmine before?
i had.
Not once but twice.
Once was i was a green horn.
Then the China Syndrome.
But this time i admit i K. K.
i think i was some Guru or what?
So now you know why i believe in NO 1 and No 2 rules of WB.
But it is still not easy to follow.
WB:-

1) Rule # 1, do not lose money.
2) Rule # 2, refer to # 1.
3) Not until you can manage your emotions, you can manage your money.

Truism of Investments.
A) Buying a security is buying RISK not Return
B) You can control RISK (to a certain level, hopefully only.) But definitely not the outcome of the Return.

NB:-
My signature is meant for psychoing myself. No offence to anyone. i am trying not to lose money unnecessary anymore.
Reply
#10
Quote:i think i was some Guru or what?
So now you know why i believe in NO 1 and No 2 rules of WB.
But it is still not easy to follow.

T,
I have a simple suggestion:
Just buy those stocks that goes up.
If they don't go up, resist the temptation to buy.

ok?



Live with Passion, Lead with Compassion
感恩 26 April 2019 Straco AGM ppt  https://valuebuddies.com/thread-2915-pos...#pid152450
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