Buy and hold - but not for too long

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#17
(28-08-2011, 05:34 PM)orang Wrote:
(28-08-2011, 02:38 PM)weijian Wrote:
(23-08-2011, 08:16 AM)orang Wrote:
(22-08-2011, 09:20 PM)Behappyalways Wrote: One should monitor the flow of funds. If funds are coming in, general stock market will rally and your individual stock counter will most likely to follow. And vice versa. When general market comes crashing down, most stocks will fall no matter how fundamentally sound or whatever term you name it.
Sounds like a sure winner, an answer to every retail investor's search to make money in equities.

Seems easy enough just following the flow of funds.
How does one go about following the the flow of funds?
Anyone can help in this?
Behappyalways's method is called 'following the smart money'. I do not know of any free source that gives such information. But i would like to think that 'following the smart money' is self destructive - ie. the more ppl get onto it, the harder it is to use it to make $ anymore..

Personally as a long term investor, i use the VIX index (fear indicator) to gauge the general mood of the market (when to buy). I also gauge the mood of amateur investors around me to understand when there is exburance (when not to buy)
Thanks Weijian for responding.

I am inclined to go along with the thinking that 'following the smart money' may not be a smart thing at all. More because of the dependence on such source of information as some sort of crystal ball to decide 'when to buy' and 'when to sell'. The thought itself frightens.

Is not the use of VIX index the same as following smart money?

At the end of the day I would probably stick to a no-brainer system of just getting a decent returns on my money like buying Singtel when the dividend yield is say around five percent (when to buy).

The yield at the moment is around 4.5%. Most people would agree it is not time to sell.





(28-08-2011, 04:32 PM)Temperament Wrote: When i started investing in 1988, i adopted an investment principle of buying in the Bear market and selling in the Bull market. And i intend to follow this Bear/ Bull cycle of investing with my whole life. i called this my life's cycle investing. i have no choice because i am not smart at reading Company's Annual Reports. i also always have my doubts about GAAP type of Company's report. Companies have to much "freedom" in this accrual type of reports.
So i am not sure whether my investment style is considered "BUY & HOLD" or "HIT & RUN". i suppose it depends on the period of each BEAR/Bull cycle.
i only know this cycle is getting very much shorter, lately.
i am not sure, this is beneficial to me or not?

Please comment, we are all here to share.
Thanks.Big Grin
Very focused. Very simple.
Maybe can name your style as UPHILL & DOWNHILL, yah?
Any landmarks along the way to indicate the momentum?

Landmark:-

Well, we all know most people consider the beginning of a Bear Market, when DOW JONES IDX. drops below 20% from the most recent high. i use to start average down when my current portfolio is only about 30-40% of my investment $fund. From experience, i always found i average down too early.
Now, i think i will start buying only from 25% - 30% onwards. i usually average down all the way till all my investment fund is used. And the proverbial falling knife still has some distance to fall.
This time, i am going to try average up. Or more accurate and picturesque-pyramid-up. Which most financial books recommend and disapprove of pyramid-down. Besides, pyramid up is "safer" :- 4-3-2-1 instead of 1-2-3-4. The tricky part is when to start pyramid-up.
WB:-

1) Rule # 1, do not lose money.
2) Rule # 2, refer to # 1.
3) Not until you can manage your emotions, you can manage your money.

Truism of Investments.
A) Buying a security is buying RISK not Return
B) You can control RISK (to a certain level, hopefully only.) But definitely not the outcome of the Return.

NB:-
My signature is meant for psychoing myself. No offence to anyone. i am trying not to lose money unnecessary anymore.
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Messages In This Thread
RE: Buy and hold - but not for too long - by RBM - 21-08-2011, 12:22 PM
RE: Buy and hold - but not for too long - by wee - 21-08-2011, 04:24 PM
RE: Buy and hold - but not for too long - by john - 06-09-2011, 06:31 PM

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