Saizen REIT

[tanjm]

Well the NAV is about 104 Yen per share. If it a general offer, i don't think it can be lower than this amount. And their reports keep on saying that that official valuations lag actual valuations in a market that's on the way up.

I believe their last few sales sold at 10-20% above premium.

So generally speaking, for a general offer, I don't see how anything lower than 110 Yen per share can be attractive enough for shareholders to vote for it. Long term and substantial shareholders may want an even bigger premium.

On the other hand, if it is simply an offer to buy a block of assets, the price could be anything.

Even if not successful, it could lead to a re rating of the per share value by the general shareholding public.

I have been vested for a while and am happy to hold it long term. The replacement cost of the type of apartment buildings that Saizen holds is higher than the acquisition cost. If indeed it is true that the price of assets will continue to climb, why sell now? Unless they have a better capital allocation choice. Reminds me of decision tree analysis with at least 3 choices and 3 housing demand scenarios.

It is preferable to see Saizen maximising the occupancy of its assets and expanding its portfolio bigger through its own acquisitions.

 I belong to the group of "long term" shareholders myself and I probably would not vote for a sale at anything under 135 yen myself. 

But many regular shareholders would be glad to see it go at anything over the NAV. So it may depend on the significant shareholders.

Anyway, who knows, maybe it's not a general offer, nor a seriously high enough offer. It's all speculation.