Kencana Agri

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#18
I think history may be instructive but we dont drive forward looking in the rear view mirror.

Odds are very good that the next few years, prices will be higher then current level. If we take current price as current level of equilibrium, we can examine the demand and supply factors to see if there are strong reasons that prices will move either to higher or lower level.

Supply side
1. new plantings in Indo and Malaysia have slowed drastically since 3 years ago.
2. both authorities seem to be reluctant to hand out new permits now due to environmental pressures.
3. malaysia palm trees are reaching their end of useful life faster than they are being replaced. age of plantations means that yields are on the cusp of experiencing a downtrend.
4. there is shortage of plantation workers in malaysia because wage level in the country has risen so much; this has already placed negative pressure on yields in recent years and look set to continue.
5. the price level a few months ago was already reaching the running cost of production for small holders(30%-40% of all producers). there are reports that small holders have cut back on application of fertilizers during those months. it may even have reached closed to the all in cost for some plantation companies.


demand side
1.demographic trends: growing population in indonesia india china.
2.economic trends: higher income, more consumption of palm oil per capita. positive in developing countries and to a smaller extent developed countries.

note: palm oil is used in more than half of products found in a typical supermarket.

Lower supply growth(or even stagnating), higher demand growth will lead to a new equilibrium.
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Messages In This Thread
Kencana Agri - by Stockerman - 05-08-2013, 04:08 PM
RE: Kencana Agri Limited - by Stockerman - 10-08-2013, 11:28 AM
RE: Kencana Agri - by kagemusha - 19-06-2014, 11:37 AM
RE: Kencana Agri - by BlueKelah - 19-06-2014, 03:08 PM
RE: Kencana Agri - by Curiousparty - 06-12-2014, 11:38 PM
RE: Kencana Agri - by johnnydash - 08-12-2014, 05:26 PM
RE: Kencana Agri - by Curiousparty - 13-12-2014, 11:13 PM
RE: Kencana Agri - by johnnydash - 14-12-2014, 07:41 PM
RE: Kencana Agri - by Curiousparty - 14-12-2014, 07:53 PM
RE: Kencana Agri - by BlueKelah - 14-12-2014, 08:48 PM
RE: Kencana Agri - by johnnydash - 15-12-2014, 06:16 AM
RE: Kencana Agri - by jjlim84 - 15-12-2014, 07:52 AM
RE: Kencana Agri - by johnnydash - 24-12-2014, 11:06 AM
RE: Kencana Agri - by Curiousparty - 15-05-2015, 03:38 PM
RE: Kencana Agri - by johnnydash - 15-05-2015, 04:23 PM
Kencana Agri - by opmi - 24-12-2014, 01:15 PM
RE: Kencana Agri - by johnnydash - 24-12-2014, 06:21 PM
RE: Kencana Agri - by johnnydash - 24-12-2014, 06:34 PM
RE: Kencana Agri - by BlueKelah - 25-12-2014, 07:37 AM
RE: Kencana Agri - by johnnydash - 09-01-2015, 11:41 AM
RE: Kencana Agri - by Curiousparty - 22-02-2015, 08:49 PM
RE: Kencana Agri - by vesfreq - 25-02-2015, 12:11 AM
RE: Kencana Agri - by Curiousparty - 24-02-2015, 10:03 PM
RE: Kencana Agri - by Curiousparty - 24-02-2015, 10:11 PM
RE: Kencana Agri - by Curiousparty - 30-04-2015, 09:20 AM
RE: Kencana Agri - by Curiousparty - 15-05-2015, 11:27 PM
RE: Kencana Agri - by Curiousparty - 16-05-2015, 11:15 AM
RE: Kencana Agri - by Curiousparty - 16-05-2015, 11:35 PM
RE: Kencana Agri - by Curiousparty - 18-05-2015, 12:29 PM
RE: Kencana Agri - by Curiousparty - 19-05-2015, 08:55 AM
RE: Kencana Agri - by vesfreq - 29-05-2015, 02:10 AM
RE: Kencana Agri - by jjlim84 - 29-05-2015, 08:03 AM
RE: Kencana Agri - by vesfreq - 29-05-2015, 08:29 AM
RE: Kencana Agri - by Curiousparty - 01-06-2015, 10:37 PM
RE: Kencana Agri - by vesfreq - 02-06-2015, 06:46 AM
RE: Kencana Agri - by jjlim84 - 02-06-2015, 08:03 AM
RE: Kencana Agri - by Curiousparty - 02-06-2015, 08:50 AM
RE: Kencana Agri - by vesfreq - 02-06-2015, 04:19 PM
RE: Kencana Agri - by BlueKelah - 02-06-2015, 05:11 PM
RE: Kencana Agri - by Curiousparty - 03-06-2015, 10:57 PM
RE: Kencana Agri - by morten - 04-06-2015, 02:24 PM
RE: Kencana Agri - by vesfreq - 04-06-2015, 03:35 PM
RE: Kencana Agri - by Curiousparty - 04-06-2015, 11:23 PM
RE: Kencana Agri - by vesfreq - 05-06-2015, 09:49 AM
RE: Kencana Agri - by vesfreq - 07-06-2015, 06:51 PM
RE: Kencana Agri - by Curiousparty - 16-06-2015, 12:56 PM
RE: Kencana Agri - by vesfreq - 17-06-2015, 12:17 AM
RE: Kencana Agri - by Curiousparty - 17-06-2015, 12:55 AM
RE: Kencana Agri - by vesfreq - 17-06-2015, 01:47 PM
RE: Kencana Agri - by vesfreq - 20-06-2015, 05:58 PM
RE: Kencana Agri - by butcher - 15-10-2015, 10:43 AM
RE: Kencana Agri - by butcher - 05-11-2015, 12:10 AM
RE: Kencana Agri - by butcher - 29-02-2016, 09:53 PM
RE: Kencana Agri - by Curiousparty - 22-03-2016, 07:38 PM
RE: Kencana Agri - by butcher - 22-03-2016, 08:25 PM
RE: Kencana Agri - by Raks - 22-03-2016, 10:39 PM
RE: Kencana Agri - by butcher - 22-03-2016, 11:30 PM
RE: Kencana Agri - by Raks - 23-03-2016, 10:04 PM

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