Jardine Matheson Holdings Limited

[gzbkel]

Henry Keswick, taipan who took Jardine Matheson back to China, 1938-2024
https://www.ft.com/content/78a26c3d-c991...f4010dbe75

[Shrivathsa]

Looking at JMH over the year, the bottom seems to have been Sep 5, had one huge run up after that from SKGD 35 to SKGD 40, due to the China stimulus measures probably,      .

The stimulus disappointment saw a retracement all the way back to SGD 36.6 on Oct 29
   

The run up after that seems to be due to Hong Kong Land announcement that it may inject its assets into a REIT.
   

The latest run up on Friday is likely due to Mandarin Oriental spiking up on Friday
    which is due to debt deleveraging from USD 225 million to USD 26 million 

In short, the factors for JMH seem to be 

a) China recovery
b) Value Unlock from HKL property investment  and
c) Debt reduction
 
It is always interesting to see what actually moves share prices up as sometimes price action reveals a lot more than analyst reports.

[weijian]

Hi Shrivathsa,

I don't really comment on share price movements but I think you may have some mis-conclusions and I keep myself short below:

(1) In the long(er) run, JMH's share price is relatively correlated to its child Jardine C&C's share price. And Jardine C&C's share price is correlated to Astra International's share price. In recent times, HKL's deterioration has indeed decoupled the JMH-Astra relationship though.

(2) Mandarin Oriental International is peanuts to JMH. The "spike up" in MOI share price is due to a block trade (~3%) done in 1 day and no surprise who the buyer is. But since MOI is not primarily listed here, it does not have to follow the disclosure rules and so it will only be officially announced when JMH publishes results next year. The reduction of debt from MOI is already expected as the Paris hotel/retail site sales were announced much earlier.

[weijian]

Jardine old hand John Witt will be gone before the end of the year and a PE (focused on AP) partner is replacing him as the new CEO of JMH. Together with the NED changes at BOD levels which "purged" all ex Jardine employees/insiders/Kewicks over the last 1-2years, the transformation at board and executive level is truly complete at JMH as well.

In the past decade, unless you bought at covid lows, OPMIs' TSRs from holding Jardine companies are anything but superior. So it is comforting to see that they are setting "challenging financial objectives to drive future growth and deliver superior TSR".

Some of the worst hit portfolio companies - HKL and DFI Retail have demonstrated tangible progress in the last 6-12months and their market values have recovered from earlier lows. 3-5years from now, will we see a Jardine comeback?

Jardine Matheson Holdings Limited Results for the Six Months ended 30 June 2025

We have set challenging financial objectives to drive future growth and deliver superior TSR.

As recently announced by DFI, a special dividend will be paid in the second half of the year, to be funded from the proceeds of business disposals by DFI as part of the simplification of its portfolio. The Company will use the dividend to reduce its net debt, in line with our intention, communicated at the full year, of prioritising the paying down of debt in order to provide investment flexibility for the future.

Following resilient performance over the past few years, Astra’s management is currently undertaking a comprehensive portfolio review to identify and assess initiatives that can be taken to enable the continued delivery of future growth and value in changing market conditions. The outputs from this review are expected in the first half of 2026. Jardines continues to view both Indonesia and Astra as strategic growth drivers and core long-term components of the Group’s portfolio.

In line with JC&C’s focus as an engaged investor, JC&C is currently working with its portfolio companies to review business strategy, priorities and initiatives to deliver future growth and improve returns. The process is expected to complete by the first half of 2026.

https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/JMH.ashx?...eID=853959

[specuvestor]

Hi Weijian

Interesting I've taken note as well but what do you mean the "purge" of Keswick?

Seems like Ben Keswick is the driver behind this after Henry Keswick passed the chair in 2018 and Adam Keswick still ED of the board

https://www.ft.com/content/d617d57e-a7db...6f19b05c7b

Jardine old hand John Witt will be gone before the end of the year and a PE (focused on AP) partner is replacing him as the new CEO of JMH. Together with the NED changes at BOD levels which "purged" all ex Jardine employees/insiders/Kewicks over the last 1-2years, the transformation at board and executive level is truly complete at JMH as well.

[weijian]

Hi Weijian

Interesting I've taken note as well but what do you mean the "purge" of Keswick?

Seems like Ben Keswick is the driver behind this after Henry Keswick passed the chair in 2018 and Adam Keswick still ED of the board

https://www.ft.com/content/d617d57e-a7db...6f19b05c7b

Jardine old hand John Witt will be gone before the end of the year and a PE (focused on AP) partner is replacing him as the new CEO of JMH. Together with the NED changes at BOD levels which "purged" all ex Jardine employees/insiders/Kewicks over the last 1-2years, the transformation at board and executive level is truly complete at JMH as well.

hi specuvestor,

The "purge" (with inverted commas) is just a tongue in cheek.  (And probably because I just recently re-watched a movie with the same name...)

As for the "purge", was also referring only to the NED roles. My guess is that 1-2 Keswicks (besides Ben) will be a permanent presence at parent or child level. The batton has to pass on to the next generation of Keswicks, as it has done for close to 200 years now. So the new generation will need some runway before they can soar.  As for ex staff, they may need to find another place to get their pension.

Just a few years ago, Ben Keswick was still chairman of all the child companies. Maybe there are reasons beyond been a superman for him to chair so many companies. Nonetheless, he is more focused now, only taking roles at JMH (as executive chairman) and MOI/Astra (NED roles). Old hand John Witt has replaced him as the chairman in the other child companies (besides MOI).

[weijian]

This article was written 5 months ago and has a good summary of the major actions taken by JMH and its listed subsidiaries in the past few years. 

Since then, more has happened - (1) HKL selling MCL Land to Sunway Group for ~570mil USD, (2) Mandarin Oriental monetizing top half of One Causeway Bay to Alibaba for ~935mil USD, (3) JMH privatizing Mandarin Oriental and if successful, will still have 250mil USD to spare coming from the special dividend, (4) JMH announcing a 250mil USD SBB at the start of Nov (Background context: Company has been conducting regular SBB for the last 5-7years and cancelling them), (5) Astra will undergo a "strategic review" and recently together with United Tractors, just announced a 120mil USD SBB each.

Jardine Matheson

Ben Keswick, great-great-great-grandson of Thomas Keswick took over as Executive Chairman in 2019. In 2021 he was finally able to unwind the cross holding structure, fully acquiring sister company Jardine Strategic.

As a family member taking over, there is only so much you can do without stepping on toes. However his Uncle Sir Henry Keswick, who had long been Chairman of the group between 1972 and 2018, and latterly had an (in theory) honorary title of Chairman Emeritus, died in November 2024. Then the following month Ben’s cousin Percy (Keswick) Weatherall stepped down from the board. The 68 year old had worked in the group since 1976 and been CEO for much of the 2000s.

German physicist Max Planck is paraphrased as saying that science progresses one funeral at a time, and sometimes reform of family companies is similar. It appears that Ben has consolidated his control and now has a freer rein to overhaul the group.

And most recently, in April 2025, the group announced it will sell the top 9 floors of its flagship One Exchange Square office tower to the Hong Kong stock exchange for $800m, and will use part of the proceeds to buy back its own stock. This is notable not just because it is an asset disposal realizing value, but also because Exchange Square is the company’s crown jewel, the asset they nearly lost the company betting on in the 1980s. The fact they are willing to sell it is indicative that there are no sacred cows and that the group is serious about unlocking value. One Exchange Square has a further 41 floors of office space which JM continue to own as well as a further 51 floors across the road at tower Two. By my calculations this transaction seems to imply a 4% cap rate.

o 2023: sold their UK car dealership business with $2bn of sales.
o 2023: Dairy Farm sold its Malaysian grocery business.
o 2023: sold their 28% stake in packaging company Greatview Aseptic for $130m.
o Jan 2024: sold their half of the baggage handling operation at Hong Kong airport.
o Apr 2024: Dairy Farm divested Hero Supermarkets, its Indonesian grocery chain.
o Aug 2024: Cycle & Carriage sold their minority stake in Siam City Cement.
o Oct 2024: Jardine Schindler sold its Taiwanese business.
o 2024: JM increased its stake in Cycle & Carriage by nearly 7% to 85%. It seems likely they will buyout minorities removing a layer of complexity.
o Feb 2025: Dairy Farm sold its 30% stake in Chinese grocer Yonghui Supermarkets for $900m.
o Mar 2025: Dairy Farm announced the sale of its Singapore grocery store business for $125m.
o May 2025: Dairy Farm sold its 22% stake in Filipino retailer Robinsons Retail for $150m.

In association with Dairy Farm’s sales of businesses in Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia the group disposed of over $250m of property assets in 2023-24. With these disposals and the Yonghui cash the Dairy Farm balance sheet will be considerably net cash (ex leases) and with a 22% free float they could easily take this private also. Incidentally the CEO who has been tasked with executing this strategy at Dairy Farm was CEO of Wal-Mart Asia and immediately prior to that had senior roles at UPS International, a business that runs a very asset light model. JM also increased its stake in Mandarin Oriental in 2024 by nearly 8% (to 88%) and this could be another buyout target.

https://cayucoscapital.substack.com/p/jardine-matheson