04-07-2019, 04:12 PM
(04-07-2019, 11:10 AM)AQ. Wrote: [ -> ](28-06-2019, 08:26 PM)Sumeria Wrote: [ -> ]There has always been talk about KSH being a target of shorting, and a big one at that. I am not sure how true that is, but if true, perhaps the launch and good sales at GBD will force a short covering.
Since Mar19, the share price has declined from 51c to 41.5c
In this period, ~40mio shares were transacted, out of which only 500k were shorts. So the first conclusion should be that the price declines were not really due to shorts.
Something strange happened ard Jun21 - 12mio shares (i.e. 30% of total volume for past 4mths) were transacted during 20-25Jun (KSH has an average volume of 120k for the past 1y). It's quite clear that some bloke were out to to do something to a certain number of shares (e.g. QAF, Lian Beng, HLF, SBS etc) but I'm not sure what. KSH does not seem to be part of the FTSE or MSCI index so i doubt its rebalancing of these index nor triple witching. So there's certainly some strategy at work, but i'm not sure what.
Fundamentally, I think the price action is quite simple. KSH has always hung ard 40+c until Mar17 when analysts broke Gaobeidian and it rallied to 66c, and it rallied further. But as news of clampdown on property speculation in China, prop cooling in Sg, and then finally China-US trade war hit, all those who bot from 40+ to 90+c started to take profit wherever possible to lock-in gains, and thus spirals all the way back to where it started.
When the herd reverses, everyone rushes to the single exit.
Thank you for the detailed analysis... v insightful...
witching or wizard of oz is all beyond me...
roadside sources say the unexplained big movements in the small caps u mentioned is pertaining to obsecure FTSE index rebalancing... the unpublished ones so peasants like us will never understand and hence all the speculation...
main question now - is the total reversal in the price? Are we getting a previously touted gold mine for free? In the price? The herd flushed into sewerage? What is the outlook from here?
GG