Property prices won't burst just because elections are over imo. More to do with what happens after the elections. The government won't do much to rock the boat atm. I'm looking forward to seeing the aftermath of this elections though. Esp if the leading party begins losing their majority. That would make things interesting...
I think interest rate will rise after the election to curb the escalating price.
My take:
1. Rental gradually taper down, due to implementation of harsh 16% SSD, those that bot now cannot sell their ppty for the next 4 yrs...they are taking a high risk cos within 4 yrs, many things could happen...currently, more and more ppty are putting up for rent. Hence, supply more than demand.
2. Interest rate is sure to rise by end of this year, at wat percentile, maybe moderate increase, my guess..but again anything could happen...e.g. Papies lose 1/3 majority, swee! foreign fund mass exit, ppty market crash.not likely to happen but i wish it will, hehe...my ppty drop by 30% also nber mind.
Agree with the demand supply imbalance.
There are far too many properties being completed for the next few years and reality will start to sink in slowly.
Koh52, kudos to you. Your political will is stronger than your own financial interests. (or maybe you have been keeping a lot of cash/gold?)
In any case, you have history on your side. Where there is too much concentrated power, the dynasty will eventually fail.
The western political system calls for check and balance / power sharing and is a proven, more sustainable system(despite the screw-ups they had).
(10-04-2011, 01:08 AM)Big Toe Wrote: [ -> ]The western political system calls for check and balance / power sharing and is a proven, more sustainable system(despite the screw-ups they had).
The power sharing model has an inherent weakness - the lack of political will to do the right thing and the tendency to yield to wishes of the majority even though it is detrimental to the future of the country.
The right model is somewhere in between.
Other than that, the ridiculous amount of time and money that are devoted to election campaign.
I still prefer the lightning fast election of Singapore and the party can go into the governing mode asap. Short and Sharp...
(08-04-2011, 10:06 PM)koh_52 Wrote: [ -> ]My take:
1. Rental gradually taper down, due to implementation of harsh 16% SSD, those that bot now cannot sell their ppty for the next 4 yrs...they are taking a high risk cos within 4 yrs, many things could happen...currently, more and more ppty are putting up for rent. Hence, supply more than demand.
2. Interest rate is sure to rise by end of this year, at wat percentile, maybe moderate increase, my guess..but again anything could happen...e.g. Papies lose 1/3 majority, swee! foreign fund mass exit, ppty market crash.not likely to happen but i wish it will, hehe...my ppty drop by 30% also nber mind.
1. I remember our govt wants our population to become 6.5 million and currently its only 5 million? A recent survey conducted shows alot of people from China and India are very interested to make Spore their 2nd home.
2. Yes, rate will increase but i seriously doubt it will increase to more than 3.5% within the next 4 years. In 2006 when the global economy was at its peak, Spore loan rate was only 4%?
Those who bought properties during the last recession period are very safe imo. Now, dont think its cheap to buy property since Property Price Index is > than the median per capital Spore GDP.
1. Rental gradually taper down, due to implementation of harsh 16% SSD, those that bot now cannot sell their ppty for the next 4 yrs...they are taking a high risk cos within 4 yrs, many things could happen
2. Currently, more and more ppty are putting up for rent. Hence, supply more than demand.
Very logical deduction.
Problem is all the buyers are comparing against 0.5% interest. They dont know 5% yield stocks that are safer bets (certainly NOT REITs), always insists brick and mortar safer bet....
I don't quite agree a 5% yield stock is safer bet to property. At current low interest rate, it is very easy to get strong free cash flow from property rental. Even if interest rate rises such that net cash flow from rental becomes 0, property value has been known to rise with inflation and economic growth and the past 20 years at an average rate of 6%.
(11-04-2011, 10:39 PM)Bibi Wrote: [ -> ]I don't quite agree a 5% yield stock is safer bet to property. At current low interest rate, it is very easy to get strong free cash flow from property rental. Even if interest rate rises such that net cash flow from rental becomes 0, property value has been known to rise with inflation and economic growth and the past 20 years at an average rate of 6%.
U can go ahead to buy a condo at today's prices, esp the suburban market
(12-04-2011, 09:39 AM)Contrarian Wrote: [ -> ][quote='Bibi' pid='8082' dateline='1302532778']
I don't quite agree a 5% yield stock is safer bet to property. At current low interest rate, it is very easy to get strong free cash flow from property rental. Even if interest rate rises such that net cash flow from rental becomes 0, property value has been known to rise with inflation and economic growth and the past 20 years at an average rate of 6%.
U can go ahead to buy a condo at today's prices, esp the suburban market
/quote]
Being a value investor, i seek to buy things with margin of safety. Just like i wont buy property at currenty prices, neither will i buy a 5% dividend share at current share prices be it kingsmen, adampak , sph etc..
But if i have to choose to invest my money now, i rather put it with property, high end luxury type. I will only change my mind if banks can loan me money at current loan rates for leveraging to buy shares.