(18-08-2013, 06:00 PM)kazukirai Wrote: [ -> ] (18-08-2013, 01:08 PM)yeokiwi Wrote: [ -> ]Either a high interest rate or mass exodus of foreigners will drive down the price. But either way, most of us will not be better off.
Thanks Yeo-san for the links. Highly informative.
I can't imagine what would happen if there is a double whammy- i/r shoot up together with mass exodus (due to recession) or political posturing.
I think there would be at least two groups that are better off-
1) home buyers (live-in property) that haven't over-extended themselves. This group will be indifferent to a large extent since they aren't concerned about property valuation. Sure it sucks to have your property value fall while you pay a higher mortgage rate but since you aren't looking to sell and aren't over-extended, then it shouldn't be so bad.
2) those looking to buy their first home.
Over-leveraging is a no-no no matter in what kind of society, country or economy growth.
There are simply too many extraordinary events that can happen that will screw up the financial status of any person.
For every successful person that was interviewed by Me & My Money, there are probably many others that had gotten into troubles of overspending.
Just like buying stocks, protecting the downside is more important than the possible profit.
(18-08-2013, 09:07 PM)kichialo Wrote: [ -> ]The AFC was nothing compared to the 1987 recession.
Was there an '87 recession? You're referring to '87 PanEl triggered stock mkt crash? It didn't affect me as I had not started investing in stocks.
I can only remember the recession in '85 - '86. I don't remember it was as severe as the AFC one. Perhaps, mainly factories closure and the majority who'd lost their jobs were the low wage workers? If factories, that means mainly Malaysians and females, as most were in factory jobs.
IIRC, it was around this time that BG Lee gained political prominence with the job of bringing Singapore out of recession... The rest, as they say, is history...
PS. I always thought that the '85 - '86 recession was self-inflicted to force Singapore out of labour intensive to Capital Intensive industries, but recently, I read that it wasn't true... funny... must be getting old and memories becoming fuzzy...
Did some checking, PanEl was also in '85, not sure what happened in '87...
(18-08-2013, 10:27 PM)KopiKat Wrote: [ -> ] (18-08-2013, 09:07 PM)kichialo Wrote: [ -> ]The AFC was nothing compared to the 1987 recession.
Was there an '87 recession? You're referring to '87 PanEl triggered stock mkt crash? It didn't affect me as I had not started investing in stocks.
I can only remember the recession in '85 - '86. I don't remember it was as severe as the AFC one. Perhaps, mainly factories closure and the majority who'd lost their jobs were the low wage workers? If factories, that means mainly Malaysians and females, as most were in factory jobs.
IIRC, it was around this time that BG Lee gained political prominence with the job of bringing Singapore out of recession... The rest, as they say, is history...
PS. I always thought that the '85 - '86 recession was self-inflicted to force Singapore out of labour intensive to Capital Intensive industries, but recently, I read that it wasn't true... funny... must be getting old and memories becoming fuzzy...
Did some checking, PanEl was also in '85, not sure what happened in '87...
There was a Black Monday in 1987.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987)
(18-08-2013, 08:27 PM)KopiKat Wrote: [ -> ]IMO, 911, SARS, GFC doesn't seem as bad compared to AFC.
IMHO a market crash due to a terrorist strike, pestilence or natural or manmade disaster is usually relatively short in duration and often offers excellent buying opportunities. Eg. the plunge due the Bombay terrorist strike of some years ago and the 2nd Bali bombing were mere intraday affairs.
In contrast a market crash due to a credit crunch is much more severe and longer. The GFC probably doesn't seem as bad to those of us who had gone thru the AFC before.
Quote:I think we'll see ghost towns or at least blocks of flats
Another reason we may see ghost towns or blocks here
http://boingboing.net/2013/04/05/how-the...-have.html
(18-08-2013, 01:08 PM)yeokiwi Wrote: [ -> ]Lastly, an interesting interactive chart from economists
http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychar...use-prices
This is a very interesting interactive chart. Notice that from 1975, the house price index of Australia and UK have gone up about as much as Singapore, while that of South Africa and Spain are much higher. Even though Singapore is a city state as you pointed out earlier, while these other countries have a great deal more land mass.
(19-08-2013, 12:22 AM)Dividend Warrior Wrote: [ -> ] (18-08-2013, 10:27 PM)KopiKat Wrote: [ -> ] (18-08-2013, 09:07 PM)kichialo Wrote: [ -> ]The AFC was nothing compared to the 1987 recession.
Was there an '87 recession? You're referring to '87 PanEl triggered stock mkt crash? It didn't affect me as I had not started investing in stocks.
I can only remember the recession in '85 - '86. I don't remember it was as severe as the AFC one. Perhaps, mainly factories closure and the majority who'd lost their jobs were the low wage workers? If factories, that means mainly Malaysians and females, as most were in factory jobs.
IIRC, it was around this time that BG Lee gained political prominence with the job of bringing Singapore out of recession... The rest, as they say, is history...
PS. I always thought that the '85 - '86 recession was self-inflicted to force Singapore out of labour intensive to Capital Intensive industries, but recently, I read that it wasn't true... funny... must be getting old and memories becoming fuzzy...
Did some checking, PanEl was also in '85, not sure what happened in '87...
There was a Black Monday in 1987.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987)
yup 87 black monday and Alan Greenspan came to save the day. Stock investors got burnt but any recession IIRC was mild where our MRT plan was escalated. Then the desert shield started in 1990.
PanEl was bad but most people yet to invest in stock market. I would think the AFC is the worst financial crisis we Singaporeans have experienced past 30 years
Compared to the prior 2 great wars, Spanish flu, Great Depression, Cuban nuclear crisis, oil crisis, Vietnam war and subsequent red terror and Khmer Rouge domino theory... I'm glad I had it relatively good as not sure how I'll survive those.
(19-08-2013, 12:37 PM)specuvestor Wrote: [ -> ] (19-08-2013, 12:22 AM)Dividend Warrior Wrote: [ -> ] (18-08-2013, 10:27 PM)KopiKat Wrote: [ -> ] (18-08-2013, 09:07 PM)kichialo Wrote: [ -> ]The AFC was nothing compared to the 1987 recession.
Was there an '87 recession? You're referring to '87 PanEl triggered stock mkt crash? It didn't affect me as I had not started investing in stocks.
I can only remember the recession in '85 - '86. I don't remember it was as severe as the AFC one. Perhaps, mainly factories closure and the majority who'd lost their jobs were the low wage workers? If factories, that means mainly Malaysians and females, as most were in factory jobs.
IIRC, it was around this time that BG Lee gained political prominence with the job of bringing Singapore out of recession... The rest, as they say, is history...
PS. I always thought that the '85 - '86 recession was self-inflicted to force Singapore out of labour intensive to Capital Intensive industries, but recently, I read that it wasn't true... funny... must be getting old and memories becoming fuzzy...
Did some checking, PanEl was also in '85, not sure what happened in '87...
There was a Black Monday in 1987.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987)
yup 87 black monday and Alan Greenspan came to save the day. Stock investors got burnt but any recession IIRC was mild where our MRT plan was escalated. Then the desert shield started in 1990.
PanEl was bad but most people yet to invest in stock market. I would think the AFC is the worst we have experienced past 30 years
Compared to the prior 2 great wars, Spanish flu, Great Depression, Cuban nuclear crisis, oil crisis, Vietnam war and subsequent red terror and Khmer Rouge domino theory... I'm glad I had it relatively good as not sure how I'll survive those.
Ya!
i started to invest in 1988 when my son was born till now. i also don't know how i survive & prosper through all the difficult years.
As no investment is 100 %, no matter how much you do or know, i only can say, "Thanks to God, or thanks your Lucky Star or no Lucky Star, then thanks to yourself. i thank GOD but that doesn't mean i don't lose quite a lot of money sometimes.
Shalom.
(19-08-2013, 12:50 PM)Temperament Wrote: [ -> ]Ya!
i started to invest in 1988 when my son was born till now. i also don't know how i survive & prosper through all the difficult years.
As no investment is 100 %, no matter how much you do or know, i only can say, "Thanks to God, or thanks your Lucky Star or no Lucky Star, then thanks to yourself. i thank GOD but that doesn't mean i don't lose quite a lot of money sometimes.
Shalom.
That's why I count my blessings everyday.
(19-08-2013, 07:27 PM)Dividend Warrior Wrote: [ -> ]That's why I count my blessings everyday.
You continue to make such meaningless posting everyday despite repeated reminders from fellow members not to do so. Your intention in this forum is questionable. May I suggest to the Moderator to bar member who has clock a certain number of negative points from posting. Obviously, such members are not in sync with the majority of the others.
(19-08-2013, 08:40 PM)Ben Wrote: [ -> ] (19-08-2013, 07:27 PM)Dividend Warrior Wrote: [ -> ]That's why I count my blessings everyday.
You continue to make such meaningless posting everyday despite repeated reminders from fellow members not to do so. Your intention in this forum is questionable. May I suggest to the Moderator to bar member who has clock a certain number of negative points from posting. Obviously, such members are not in sync with the majority of the others.
I admit my postings are not gonna win any "Analysis of the year" award.
Sure. If the moderators, CityFarmer, Cyclone & Kazukirai think that I am posting
totally meaningless and pointless comments
everyday, I am sure they will ban me. They can check my posting history.
I have never posted any offensive, inappropriate or rude remarks to any members here.
If CityFarmer, Cyclone and Kazukirai think I deserve any form punishment, I am willing to receive it.
"I admit my postings are not gonna win any "Analysis of the year" award. Smile
Sure. If the moderators, CityFarmer, Cyclone & Kazukirai think that I am posting totally meaningless and pointless comments everyday, I am sure they will ban me. They can check my posting history.
I have never posted any offensive, inappropriate or rude remarks to any members here.
If CityFarmer, Cyclone and Kazukirai think I deserve any form punishment, I am willing to receive it. "
Unquote:-
i think i have not posted anything deserving an award too. Does that means i should be banned too. Or have i offended someone just because i have a different opinion? i know some blogs need you to be "somebody" before you can join. The blogs even have a qualifying tests for you. If you fail the tests you can not join. Oh i hope this blog not going to be like that soon.