When I was covering FELS in the 1990s, FPSOs was the game changing technology when there was absolutely kosong orders in the O&G sector. Shipyards were surviving on conversion...
(19-10-2014, 05:42 PM)Greenrookie Wrote: [ -> ]I was reading about the new "can do" ship that can explore and drill and "supposedly" reduce cost of production for oil and Gas.
I thought that might be a game changer. Although it is too small to make a impact when the tide turns but if it become a new industrial norm, maybe it will survive the down cycle better. Also, If I am not wrong, with the exception of bulk and containers shipping, down cycles are usually shorter than up cycles??
Just monitoring all the all players in O and G like Keppel and Sembcorp. Sorry for my Noobish thoughts
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companie...ill-strong
Keppel: Industry fundamentals still strong
Q3 profit falls 9.5% to S$414m; O&M segment helps offset lower contribution from property division
By
Malminderjit Singhmsingh@sph.com.sg@MalminderjitBT
BT_20141022_MSKEPPEL22NDHU_1331326.jpg MR LOH: Exploration and production investments have to increase to keep up with global oil demand.
22 Oct5:50 AM
Singapore
KEPPEL Corporation remains upbeat about its offshore and marine (O&M) business despite falling oil prices and oversupply in the jack-up market.
With sound fundamentals and a strong order book, Keppel is optimistic that demand for oil and jack-ups will remain strong in
Ggwp Singapore
Singapore loses out to China in jack-up rig construction market
Singapore: Singapore has been replaced by China as the world’s biggest builder of jack-up rigs, with 33% of the global orderbook compared to China’s 47%.
Between 2000 and 2010, yards in Singapore built 55% of global deliveries of jack-up rigs, according to research by Douglas-Westwood.
The research group said Chinese yards had secured their market share by offering clients highly attractive financing packages.
Singapore yards have countered this by pursuing higher value EPC contracts such as Keppel’s ‘CAN DO’ drillship project, which will be the most technically advanced asset of its kind.
The city-state has also secured high-value contracts for construction of floating LNG (FLNG) units for both Keppel and Sembcorp.
“We do not expect Singapore to completely retreat from the jack-up market. However, this focus on frontier EPC segments is both a clear reaction to the inevitable rise of China (in what was considered ‘their’ business) and a warning shot to South Korean dominance in both drillships and FLNG,” Douglas-Westwood said of the Singapore market in a release.
A tighter price environment has hit South Korean yards’ market share. Douglas-Westwood says that a shift away from heavy construction in the country seems likely, as suggested by Samsung Heavy Industry’s recently announced merger with Samsung Engineering. [21/10/14]
^^ ex Keppel project managers come out and set up their own project mgt companies at 5% contract value. Use Chinese shipyards with third party rig design. All these happening.
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>> Ex Keppel project managers come out and set up their own project mgt companies at 5% contract value. Use Chinese shipyards with third party rig design. All these happening.
Do you mean these Ex-Keppel PMs can clone the design and the project management / execution IP and help the Chinese yards narrow the gap with Keppel?
Can share your source of information?
One of the listed O&G company exec director at AGM.
Not clone design. Use third party design. There are offshore rig design companies.
Last time keppel build friede Goldman rig
also not theirs wat.
http://www.fng.com/designs
Project mgt skills got IP one meh??
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i say the value proposition is similar to the smartphone industry. with competition from low cost manufactuerers it means apple will 'surely die'
but apple survived because the customer segment is unique. and past year have shown that they are unique, unlike what the analysts think.
is keppel like apple. can project management skills differentiate? i guess it can but at some point others will improve that, and the differentiating factor reduces. then what gives? i guess the brand of Keppel that projects superior PM skills becomes paramount not to mention at the forefront of best processes.
Keppel Corporation: Well-positioned to capture quality growth
Keppel Corp (KEP) reported an 8.1% YoY rise in revenue to S$3.18b but saw a 9.5% decrease in net profit to S$414.2m in 3Q14, such that 9M14 net profit met 76% of our full year estimates, in line with expectations. Operating margin in the O&M division remained healthy in the quarter, at 14.9% in 3Q14 vs. 14.7% in 2Q14. The semi-submersibles for Sete Brasil are also on track. Though there have been jitters in the oil market recently, management believes that this has not altered the sound fundamentals of the industry. Still, KEP’s order flow YTD has been relatively slow, and we have lowered our new order win estimates to S$5.7b for FY14 and S$6b for FY15, compared to S$6.7b and S$6.5b earlier. Our fair value estimate correspondingly drops to S$11.75 (prev. S$12.31), but given the potential upside and forecasted dividend yield of ~4.8% on the stock, we maintain our BUY rating on KEP. (Low Pei Han)
I put my $ that the game is over for sometime to come. I do not rule out that there will be short term trading opportunities.
It would be good to note that Choo CB and Teo Soon Hoe have both stepped down from the glory days.
Old guards will go for good reasons especially long time veterans. They have stepped down at the peak.
It is now time for the new and younger generations to step up and be blooded...
KepCorp and SembMarine both have strong track record. Its the severe headwinds and the oversupply of existing fleet and new builts that is the main issue after a prolong extended run in the global offshore market that matters.
Catching a Falling Knife is Painful
Odd Lots Vested
GG
Interesting graph, since oil price is linked to capex