Perhaps some buddies can share their thoughts..
If we take indicators ( for example )like:
GDP
PMI
Tourist arrivals
Hotel occupany
Company financial results
And all the numbers point to a slowdown...
But,how long does it take for an economic slowdown to be visually obvious?
6 months
9 months
1 year
*some visually obvious examples:
- vehicles being repossesed using tow trucks
- increased shop space for rent
- less queues for famous food outlets
Visually Obvious - COE prices, no of house auctions, less crowd along orchard road
Not so obvious- High vacancy residential rates due to the sending back of foreign workers.
(20-02-2016, 11:32 PM)Porkbelly Wrote: [ -> ]Perhaps some buddies can share their thoughts..
If we take indicators ( for example )like:
GDP
PMI
Tourist arrivals
Hotel occupany
Company financial results
And all the numbers point to a slowdown...
But,how long does it take for an economic slowdown to be visually obvious?
6 months
9 months
1 year
*some visually obvious examples:
- vehicles being repossesed using tow trucks
- increased shop space for rent
- less queues for famous food outlets
Those visible signs are late ones - people put off changing their spending habits, companies do not repossess vehicles immediately, or close down their shops. So I would say about 9 months, typically.
The stock market is a good lead indicator - it moves first
Property prices are much slower to adjust
You know it is a big one, not just a blip, when:
The CPF contribution rates are cut, especially for employers
The MAS engineers a significant fall in the S$
But that only happens when the signs of a slowdown are all around you.
I am more sure of "audio"........When people around you keeps talking about it non-stop.....
Perhaps the attendance at new property launches is a good visual indicator too.
Yes if everyone talking about 'hang zheng pai' it probably indicates near the low.
For me if blue chips earnings down and you see STI index quarterly is just down down down is a good visual. Usually there will be a lag of maybe half year before it filters down to property, rental and consumer spending.
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I would say that the drop in traffic on this forum (very few new posts appearing on the main page) is a leading indicator for the market and broader economy
I still remember the carnage that happens during 2008-2009. Prices simply drop almost every week. Gurus here almost feel like giving up. I remember our guru dydx commented "When will the carnage ends". True enough, the following week, the carnage really ended
. STI stage a strong rebound after that.
(22-02-2016, 01:34 AM)frus Wrote: [ -> ]I would say that the drop in traffic on this forum (very few new posts appearing on the main page) is a leading indicator for the market and broader economy
VB activities, serve as one of the useful indicators? I reckon, it is more of a coincidence. Have other forums been behaving the same?
visual:
hotel rooms are easier to book a few days in advance, even during high seasons
MBS and RWS kept giving free room before Chinese New year...signs of low occupancy rate maybe.