Scary Read.
Well, an alternative way to make the Index figure looks good is to devalue ... Yuan ... instead.
"Chinese equity valuations are still among the most expensive in the world. The median stock on mainland bourses traded at 72 times reported earnings on Monday, higher than any of the 10 largest markets. It was 68 at the peak of China’s equity bubble in 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg."
There are conflicting reports on China stock market valuation. On one side, fund managers are saying low valuation, while some reports are saying over-valuation. Which is which?
I reckon, one is referring to Shanghai Ex, while the other one is referring to Shenzhen Ex. Shanghai Ex average PE is 18.62, while Shenzhen Ex PE is 49.23, after the recent dive.
Depending on the story line needed, one of them has been chosen, I guess.
Shenzhen Ex
http://www.szse.cn/main/en/MarketStatist...tOverview/
Shanghai Ex
http://english.sse.com.cn/
As china economy contracts, earnings will topple and suddenly PE will look so high and market will look so expensive.
Besides can really trust china company reported earnings??
Gov intervention will be futile when the underlying fundamentals are going to the ground. Dem commies are the last ones we should trust...
sent from my Galaxy Tab S
(27-04-2015, 09:48 AM)corydorus Wrote: [ -> ]I got this feeling is going to burst. This is not sustainable. I hope we will not be implicated when it does.
(08-07-2015, 10:33 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: [ -> ] (08-07-2015, 09:32 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ] (08-07-2015, 06:17 PM)corydorus Wrote: [ -> ] (27-04-2015, 10:17 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ] (27-04-2015, 09:48 AM)corydorus Wrote: [ -> ]I got this feeling is going to burst. This is not sustainable. I hope we will not be implicated when it does.
Up to the latest info, the HKEX's average PE is 12.5, and the respective B-Share PE for Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges are 21.6 and 16.0 respectively.
Bubble? probably not yet. Going to become one? May be, and still need more time to reach the boundary. May be as Mr. specuvestor estimation, 1.5 years down the road...
Source: http://www.hkex.com.hk/eng/csm/highlight...angCode=en
My Feeling Won ?
I am not sure. One month ago at peak, I might feel winning, but now you won. How about few months later?
IMO, bubble or not, should be concluded from fundamentals. If market PE >30, it is a bubble, even after -30+% correction, tio bu?
Just watch the drama... free show and we can be wiser... no complains... beyond every crisis, there will be more solutions and more problems...
Unfortunately we are implicated by China. With World market beaten up by China slow down. My worst fear is here ...
If u are cashed up u will be fine. Hunting season officially open...
sent from my Galaxy Tab S
(24-08-2015, 11:14 AM)BlueKelah Wrote: [ -> ]If u are cashed up u will be fine. Hunting season officially open...
sent from my Galaxy Tab S
Over the years, WB has used many vivid terms to describe this situation:
The more recent one: loading up the elephant gun
The older classics: kid in a candy store, over-XXXed teen in a wXXXe house
In his words as well, for some of us whom bought call options (aka CASH) all this time, is it time to exercise the option now?
(24-08-2015, 03:19 PM)weijian Wrote: [ -> ] (24-08-2015, 11:14 AM)BlueKelah Wrote: [ -> ]If u are cashed up u will be fine. Hunting season officially open...
sent from my Galaxy Tab S
Over the years, WB has used many vivid terms to describe this situation:
The more recent one: loading up the elephant gun
The older classics: kid in a candy store, over-XXXed teen in a wXXXe house
In his words as well, for some of us whom bought call options (aka CASH) all this time, is it time to exercise the option now?
its hard to call a time, but would say it is time to start hunting. though officially the guru buffett has been selling his energy companies and going into cash. So far he is only shooting one aerospace elephant for $30+billion so maybe things are not so cheap yet. Probably when he starts shooting a lot more it could be an indicator things are cheap and we can join in a much bigger fashion too.
I do think winter is finally come around for SGX and we can start stocking up on straw hats (this one not WB saying
)
(24-08-2015, 03:19 PM)weijian Wrote: [ -> ] (24-08-2015, 11:14 AM)BlueKelah Wrote: [ -> ]If u are cashed up u will be fine. Hunting season officially open...
sent from my Galaxy Tab S
Over the years, WB has used many vivid terms to describe this situation:
The more recent one: loading up the elephant gun
The older classics: kid in a candy store, over-XXXed teen in a wXXXe house
In his words as well, for some of us whom bought call options (aka CASH) all this time, is it time to exercise the option now?
Tan Teng Boo, the guy full of white hair in the value buddies' advertising banner above, is sometimes quoted as Warren Buffet of the East by some pp. He say he will only be interested in KepCorp at S$3.50 and below. O&G counters have drop so much yet KepCorp is still way above $3.50. So do you think its time to load the elephant gun?