I know many are confuse. Will this cause the market to crash? I think it will initially. But as we know market always come back. So if we are holding solid counters. I think we will just leave them alone, and it got spare cash, do some cherry picking at one of the bottom.
One of my buddy, suggest to sell half, as we are in doubt. So as the profit from the panic, and if it does not come about, the most he buy back and losses broker fees.
I think there is chance that these ruthless young politician may take a bet and default.
But if they (Greece) default, the next day they wake up will find themselves in the toilet for the next 20 yrs, and whatever currency they took on will be like toilet paper. I believe mostly the poor will suffer the most. The rich long time has already transfer their asset out of the country to safety.
Better for them to take bitter medicines then to go hungry. After years of living on borrow money, what else to expect, it is pay back time.
(21-02-2015, 10:20 AM)yewkim Wrote: [ -> ]Kick the can down the road for 4 months.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102441980
Give us time to prepare what to do. Good. Stock will soar.
Looks like most of the forummers who voted was right!
Yes they will have to keep kicking the can down the road. So long as Germans can they will just keep getting interest paid. Greece will be indebted fora very very long time.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2...-austerity
This article tells us how hard it will be for Greece to even slash its debts to 60% of GDP. IMO, its impossible for Greece to maintain the above 5% surplus to slash debt. For SG/norway case, the reason why they have maintained an above 5% surplus is because they have very big (x3) sovereign wealth funds whose investment returns are added to govt revenue. Greece does not even have a sovereign fund. Singapore's reserves contribute 12% of our govt revenue in the most recent years; without it, we would have been running deficits for a very long time
If we see Greece from the point of view of a business, one way is to grant a haircut. A lower debt principal means lesser interests accured; Only then will Greece be able to repay full interest and part principal to pay down debts to 60% of GDP. At this juncture, Greece is struggling to pay the interest accrued from its large debts. If banks and top brass are still adamant not to reduce the debt principal amount, the interest will kill the Greek govt. Its simple business sense which unfortunately many ppl do not wish to see.
The alternative method is that bondholders have to agree to give Greece no interest debts to tide them over. This is like what happens in our credit counselling social services, where they negotiate for debtors zero or very low interest debts owed to finance companies since the individual is already struggling to pay the interest from credit card debts/personal loans
Greek Debt Swap at 95% After Bondholders Forced to Join
think they already made the lenders take a hair cut last time.
Germany may be just trying to squeeze whatever they can and drag things on until greece defaults or gets "owned" by them. Either way its not going to end well.
they could probably do massive quantitative easing to reduce the value of the debt, using USA theory of outgrowing the debt. Refinancing their debt would also help but more important are austerity measures. It will create a leaner gov and wake up those people who just depends on welfare. Economy might have short term shock, but longer term will be fundamentally stronger.
But their biggest problem with austerity are the people who have for many years depend too much on the state for easy welfare money and as demonstrated, any pro austerity gov will be voted OUT.
I search the net and found Greece has early retirement age of 57. So I think Euro and Germany have been very fair to them.
Maybe Greeks have to go through a phase of realization themselves.
Look like it is a good set up to a big showdown as they kick the can down the road. By then we will have Spain come on stage.
Good show is always save for the finale. LOL
But in the mean time, stock will soar higher.
(21-02-2015, 09:25 PM)corydorus Wrote: [ -> ]I search the net and found Greece has early retirement age of 57. So I think Euro and Germany have been very fair to them.
Maybe Greeks have to go through a phase of realization themselves.
The rest of EU can't afford to be too harsh on Greece, over this debt issue. The new elected greek government has various obligations to the population and one of which were the promises made regarding the austerity measures. Should they fail to fulfill those promises, there will be potential social unrest. Not a very good thing to happen at this point in time, especially when the government is this new. More frightening for NATO and EU to have to manage the problem of potential spillover social unrest and riots. More money and time again...
This reminds me of the history when Hitler got into power and he propagated a new "dynasty" which will last dunno-how-many years. Needless to say he got into power quite readily, leveraging upon the "desperation" of the common folk and well thought out "promises". Sounds like a very familiar way to gain political power and support. History repeats itself and so do the folly of man (and woman, if applicable).
I am more inclined to believe that both Greece and EU will hit an in-between agreement, such that default will not occur and creditors still get their money back somehow. End of the day, this is very bad for greek government credibility.
The debt crisis in greece is like flu. One down and the rest may (and will likely) get flu themselves too.
Also, going to another point from one analyst. This is "too big to fail". Sounds very cliche in modern global economics.
PS: Perhaps, our MIW should go over and promote retirement age at 67 instead... and "promote productivity" plus "lifelong learning".