was about to say that I can sense we are already in mild recession
(Bloomberg) --
Singapore’s economy contracted in the third quarter from the previous three months, according to an advanced estimate from the government, more signs that the Southeast Asian financial and trading hub is struggling in the face of a global slowdown.
Key Points
Gross domestic product fell an annualized 4.1 percent on a quarter-on-quarter basis, compared with a revised 0.2 percent expansion in the second quarter, the Ministry of Trade and Industry said in a statement Friday.
The median estimate of 14 economists in a Bloomberg survey was for zero gains in GDP
Compared with a year earlier, GDP rose 0.6 percent in the third quarter, slower than the 1.7 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 20 economists
-snip-
If you look at company on SGX a lot are making losses. Those making profit mostly are also experiencing "earnings recession". Not many are actually growing their earnings.
STI is also down 20% from peak and sideways for long time liao.
Two common things that show recession setting in is usually property sales and COE prices. It seems both have been coming down since peaking in 2013/2014. Actually reminds me of when things started going downhill in 2007 for 2 years till the GFC time.
I'd say we are already in the starting of recession, most people just don't know it yet.
1) COE price can tweak one...
MOT/LTA will just reduce the supply quotas...
https://www.lta.gov.sg/apps/news/page.as...7c11f1a561
MOT/LTA's Scholar's planned tax % for COE is based on S$50K range sir.
2) Property, just wait for MAS to take away some cooling measures, as the signal..
waiting for u... waiting for u....
the problem with recession is, everyone knows it's here, but no one wants to admit it... gov still chanting 1-2% GDP growth... :O?????
Lets get ahead of official data and make our own guess estimates
In my opinion, the govt is contributing to the economy significantly through its high government expenditure. FY 2015 was the first time we had a primary deficit in budget due to a higher development expenditure - 50% increase YoY.
What I am inferring is that the private sector is contracting and the govt is picking the slack. The main reason is due to oil crisis which is affecting us badly. O&G companies dwindling activity is having a ripple effect through our economy. My own "MTI" estimates is that we will register a 1- 1.5% growth this year. It is likely next year will be negative growth because our government is prudent in its finances and will not continue massive expenditure.
Not very encouraging...
CNA - Singapore exports down 4.8% in September after flat growth in August
SINGAPORE: Exports in Singapore fell a disappointing 4.8 per cent in September, after flat growth the previous month, according to latest figures released by International Enterprise (IE) Singapore on Monday (Oct 17).
Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) were hit by a decline in both electronic and non-electronic exports.
Electronic shipments fell 6.6 per cent, following a 6 per cent decline the previous month. The contraction was largely due to ICs (-6.3 per cent), disk drives (-55 per cent) and parts of PCs (-22.4 per cent), IE Singapore said.
So we have SPH cutting headcount, but that is expected as are unable to compete effectively in the new media space.
Print media is on the decline. Google/facebook provides much better value for advertisers in terms of reach and more accurate targeting.
We have the GDP down, housing prices/rentals down, wholesale and retail trade down for consecutive quarters.
We also have the office rents down significantly in Q3.
Down on all fronts, looking like it's more than than just a hiccup. The only thing holding up are car prices which are still sky high.
But that too may likely drop in the coming months if the economy continue its downward trend.