in 2008 - 2009, stock market and property went down together.
who will say it will be different this time?
Read somewhere that properties cycle should lag behind equities by six months or so. But pls don't read too much into these cycles thingy. They tend to work only when all things are normal.
We are definitely living in unusual times.
Recall 51% of banks loans are of properties loans if I didn't remember wrongly.
Doubt any government esp. ours would want to crash the banks.
Personally, I rather hope to see a soft landing than a crash for many of our fellow citizens may be unable to take such a blow psychologically. Families will be broken and children will suffer most if such adverse scenario to erupt.
Cheers.
(16-01-2011, 12:38 AM)freedom Wrote: [ -> ]in 2008 - 2009, stock market and property went down together.
who will say it will be different this time?
property didnt really go down in 2009-2009 period, it was a extremely short-lived small decline..
i would say the last property burst was in the late 90s period
(16-01-2011, 02:30 AM)arthur Wrote: [ -> ]Read somewhere that properties cycle should lag behind equities by six months or so. But pls don't read too much into these cycles thingy. They tend to work only when all things are normal.
We are definitely living in unusual times.
Recall 51% of banks loans are of properties loans if I didn't remember wrongly.
Doubt any government esp. ours would want to crash the banks.
Personally, I rather hope to see a soft landing than a crash for many of our fellow citizens may be unable to take such a blow psychologically. Families will be broken and children will suffer most if such adverse scenario to erupt.
Cheers.
Arthur-san is very civic-minded. Impressed!
(16-01-2011, 02:30 AM)arthur Wrote: [ -> ]Personally, I rather hope to see a soft landing than a crash for many of our fellow citizens may be unable to take such a blow psychologically. Families will be broken and children will suffer most if such adverse scenario to erupt.
Haha, yes I'd agree too. But much as I share your sentiments on seeing a "soft" landing, sometimes external factors (beyond our control) may still work to crash the market, with or without Govt intervention.
My impression is that Singaporeans are mostly a wealthy bunch and those who can speculate in properties probably can afford some losses without losing sleep. Just witness the huge crowds at malls, IT fairs and gadget fairs and you can tell that many Singaporeans have the cash and are willing to spend it.
(14-01-2011, 01:59 PM)Musicwhiz Wrote: [ -> ]Somehow in Singapore, properties seem to be much more popular as investments compared to equities. Just read the "Me & My Money" interviews and you can detect this. Almost all those interviewed (perhaps about 99%) had >1 property and it was investment property. 
Haha MW, now is good time to pull this back. Property fever is diminishing and the talk is now about equity and businesses
> Somehow in Singapore, properties seem to be much more popular as investments compared to equities
U can touch and see hard assets and assess how things are happening for properties.
For stocks, not so easy unless easy businesses.
That's why people prefer to buy properties.
(16-01-2011, 02:30 AM)arthur Wrote: [ -> ]Read somewhere that properties cycle should lag behind equities by six months or so. But pls don't read too much into these cycles thingy. They tend to work only when all things are normal.
This NEVER happened in the 08 and 09 downturn. So every down cycle is different.
(16-01-2011, 11:28 PM)Contrarian Wrote: [ -> ]This NEVER happened in the 08 and 09 downturn. So every down cycle is different.
Relac Contrarian-san.
I am sure many of us observe this scenario in Singapore as well.
As I mentioned that these cycles only work in normal times. We aren't.
I personally would like to invest in the property market. Its a form of hard asset, a store of wealth, that could provide a return. At the right price and leverage, of course.
Investing in property here commonly means putting a lot of eggs in one basket and taking very good care of it. I like to invest in property as well, but consider it as higher risk in a sense. Minimal investment amount is needed and one wrong bet can wipe out a lot. It also has a higher barrier to entry as minimum investment needed for property is higher. However, i believe that the mitigating factor is that downside chances for property is less than stocks while any big gains have to come from appreciation rather than rental.