02-05-2014, 04:19 PM
02-05-2014, 05:10 PM
One of the reasons is that the total land value in Beijing is about 60%+ of US GDP.
I wonder what is the total land value in Singapore. Is there anyway we get this number?
I wonder what is the total land value in Singapore. Is there anyway we get this number?
03-05-2014, 12:18 PM
Full transcript from Vanke's Mao Daqing translated into English using Google Translate. For Chinese readers kindly read the text from the link below, it will be the most accurate source since google translate is not 100% fool-proof. It is an interesting and i believe the most accurate view of China's housing market as Vanke is the biggest developer by market cap in China. http://finance.qq.com/a/20140502/005309.htm
In summary, i felt he was trying to say that 1st tier cities and the coastal cities will face downside risk in home prices in the short term but should be ok in the long term. The dangers are in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th tier cities where most are over-built to the extent of >24 months in housing supply.
[Financial Reuters recently , Mao Daqing , vice president of Vanke Sharon in his speech came on the building policy , which said the national real estate market differentiation , causing public concern.
After the speech is widely spread , the blue whale Financial Reporter @ Work platform Weibo said, " Mao Daqing phone off , and his men who verified . Confirmation ." @ Yi Peng in its micro-channel circle of friends said that when I check for Mao Daqing Mao denied that his speech. But now Mao Daqing not open himself to admit or deny .
Sharon Chen Huai , director of policy built man released microblogging , Sharon speech was leaked and misinterpreted angry , indirectly confirmed the authenticity of the speech . Chen Huai micro-Bo said : " The total net mass Vanke hair salon an internal speech , which impressed me just as I hosted , Mao talked about the key points total , one is sensitive to market price points , and second division in different cities . Third, some cities blind expansion. no exaggeration to talk the language of the recent market beyond . Given the participants do not appreciate this opportunity to exchange ideas , do not have this salon up ! "
Mao Daqing , vice president of Vanke text of speeches on the construction of Sharon's policy as follows :
This year's market . And Vanke , like all of you since the first quarter of the market , that are more complex , the first frank talk about the personal analysis of the market . At the end of last year , I had an interview , once it comes ,2013 -14 -year period , there may be a relatively large market differentiation , individuals had talked to a number of meetings from now on focus on the 50 city view, has obviously differentiated features 50 urban background : ( country since the 2003 implementation of the policy control, last year , a full 10 years , in 2014 there is no regulation to implement the policy in the past 10 years, strong policy control, total there are over 43 times the policy control, which issued more than 179 four ministries file, which documents 179 individuals affected by Ren ( microblogging ) greater impact, like analysis , individuals will find all 179 documents , and fight together read ( mock personal sick ) , found : 179 papers incoherently , there are many kinds of things did not implement ; but that 179 documents a revelation to me : once again confirms the Chinese real estate has a real estate problem areas , in this country there are more than four ministries beginning of the file , each file has a period he called to point to this file: from more than 30 cities in more than 70 cities , up to 50-60 cities are mentioned in the case , in fact , a closer look, the 50-60 cities more obvious signs of the Chinese real estate various features , long since Vanke , research institutes and institutions of our own research department analyzed more, in fact, 36-50 is the state between cities ) . This 50 cities from 13 -14 year end , there were two situations: one is represented by second-tier cities , there has been more obvious characteristics: due to excessive supply of land , brought about the future or the ability of the market to overdraft ability to sell these cities on behalf of the more obvious is that Shenyang , with a clear representative of some third-tier cities will not give up , such as: Yingkou , Anshan, Tangshan and the like . Cities like Shenyang, about 30 to one ( in 50 cities inside ) , basically due to the impact of market oversupply brought ; Second, there are some cities to Beijing as the representative of the market is still, pretty much demand but he fluctuations that land prices in the past year due to rising too fast , we have to represent the slope , the slope is very oblique 13 years , is the sum of the slope in the past several years has brought to the market price to rise overdraft , so basically two types of cities have appeared in the case of overdraft ; created a quarter of this year , coupled with the country for the loan , the bank's tightening policy , these three points ( two overdraft plus a tightening ) , making this year we have universal significance of the market there has been a negative , more wait and see, such a pessimistic state , might such a situation can cover most of the city.
Assist a disturbance factor is the anti-corruption ( Star River on behalf of the anti-corruption Xinghewan afternoon made a great impact ) , as our developers say that the anti-corruption impact on high-end real estate , in fact, still very large. For high-end disk anti-corruption effects , not least a number of corrupt officials , but a number of things with this connected , directly or indirectly , including industry , as well as a group of people to hold high-end real estate doubts psychology. Each city is different, such as Shanxi , we are also concerned about the Xinghewan this project, he affected the coal industry as a whole . We Vanke in Beijing 's high-end real estate, in the past three weeks , the reception only Procuratorate , Ji Jianwei , 14-15 times on the big , dense We cooperate with the investigation of a real estate (the price of 4,5 million per flat ) , other more expensive real estate developers are afraid to think about what was happening . So , at least in the recent period of time, the anti-corruption is still quite evident on the property of a disturbance factor .
Meanwhile , in Beijing 's second-hand housing market, a more honest feel the influence brought by , for example, and I love my family , the chain of home two second-hand stores mainstream communication , especially to get such a chain of family data , main ( Beijing Homelink basic accounting for more than half of the market ) , the amount of their single-day single- pending stores ( single-day volume is pending second-hand housing market is very important data ) from the original five houses, the sharp increase to 10 - 12 house, and a lot of pending single master , asking them to sell as soon as possible , to give a substantial discount , and even cut prices, showing that this house did not know how to , for example : where a prefecture-level city in province Public Security Bureau in Beijing selling a house ( this person has to go up ) , the Beijing market intermediaries , looking for a 44 stores to hang his house , he 's the number of houses in Beijing , in the 1-2 building, presumably to help him hang his people men , wife, mistress , etc., regardless of the cost when hanging , death-defying rejection . Bring serious consequences of rejection slowing sales of second-hand housing , this situation we can go to the store to see ( I am 13 years also sell a house, 100 square meters of the house , they can not sell , it is now getting increasingly sell, broker let me price, I told the broker that I sold at cost price , did not calculate the interest , the outcome is that I do not sell, rent received ) ;
Beijing also has a more complex factors : self- occupied housing , owner-occupied housing supply , for a number of buyers just need to give them a relatively cheap price , can buy a Built in the house , but in fact this expectation also quite unreal, his supply is very limited, Beijing Jinyu Ka Yip , two in Beijing have a better place to house about 5000 , I still have not started selling , queuing applicants , excluding repetitive, 5000 sets house , the number of families applying for the 250,000 ; does not eliminate repetitive, the number of households in 450,000 applications . So Beijing market is there, people are anxious to buy a house in a lot , but these people have not constitute support for high-end real estate . This is what I want to express the view that more than 90% of the market is still rigid demand, they are particularly sensitive to the critical point . Some time ago Vanke in Beijing to sell the house ( Zhuzong Vanke Vanke orange jointly developed projects 22,000 per square ) , caused an uproar in the market , the project is required Construction Committee reasonable price point lower, Vanke proposed shareholders , cooperation partners , can not sell , but still requires selling Construction Committee , asked us to take the lead . Cheap sell later, reporters wrote many articles , to collapse , and Vanke cut prices to take the lead , and that his son is currently the center of a Standing Committee from the United States to call me and asked me if I was really going down a house in Beijing , and I said that the government let me dry, you ask me. Case is four hours sold . Sold in the state : prices and Beijing 's almost the same as owner-occupied housing . However, we tested if we put another real estate prices to sell 2.8-2.9 million and decrease in the number of buyers immediately sold 30,000 , more obvious ; So now the price the market will bear visible space and the range is very clear . We have a Construction Committee approved a level of 36,000 per project , in Beijing Yizhuang , sold 40 percent after the opening bell , the amount left behind very slowly , and we can see that the 22,000 items 4 sale sold , 3.6 million project is very slow.
The current situation is a good point in Beijing and Shanghai , including Guangzhou and Shenzhen and other cities , the market is not good. I simply digitally Description: We examined changes in 24 key cities of turnover , the 2013 and 2014 1,2,3 month , down : January 13 % February 21 %, 30 % in March , as In April, we think better where to go . Changes in consumer deposit ratio of 24 key cities is quite large, of course, sealed off the bank , the customer sentiment increased this change.
There are a few of the more important data, we divided 100 billion of the city, divided into: Beijing , Tianjin , Shenyang, Qingdao ( northern cities as a model ) , 100 billion urban housing supply area , down , Beijing is 23% ( a lot of companies do not sell now , the government has not granted limit ) ; Tianjin rose by 106% qoq , rose 8% ; Shenyang rose 205 percent , rose 78 percent , above all rose ; Qingdao is also on the rise ;
Commercial housing turnover , the total amount , Beijing fell 37% , a 35% decrease in Tianjin , Qingdao, down 45 % to 40% drop in Dalian , Jinan dropped 43 percent , 66 percent decline in Taiyuan , has decreased significantly ;
Wholesale than a lot of cities are greater than 1 , Beijing is 1.2 , 1.9 , Qingdao , Yantai and 1.4 , these data seem on the deteriorating state.
We also saw the listing of real estate , compared to turnover of the area in terms of land , if less than 1 , it means that a large number of transactions into the ground , but did not enter the market , such as Tianjin , Shenyang, Qingdao, Dalian and so on , all less than one , as evidenced by siltation of land in the hands of developers or big amount , but these cities approved the sale of real estate than what it is , it is more than 1 , indicating that part already listed backlog , such as Tianjin , real estate transactions listed land of contrasts is 0.65 , but the ratio has approved the sale of real estate to 1.48 , indicating that the ground is not completely listed, but approved the sale of the house has begun a backlog ;
We look at premium prices is poor, we judge , if less than 5,000 yuan , it is difficult to have a profit margin , we cited a dozen cities , there are 10,824 yuan only Beijing and Tianjin are 8419 yuan, 4847 yuan Shenyang (Shenyang now want money is hard enough ) , Qingdao 7,000 yuan, 8,000 yuan in Dalian , Jinan, 6,000 yuan, 5,000 yuan Changchun , Tangshan 4,800 yuan , 4,900 yuan , Anshan , Fushun, 3500.
3 -year inventory of new consumer deposit ratio , the majority of the city , only new stock had reached more than enough to sell 1 -year, 3 -year inventory of consumer deposit ratio , the more serious , such as: 17 in Tianjin , Shenyang, 7 , 16 in Qingdao , Yantai 38 , Anshan 20 , 22 , etc. Tangshan ; Tangshan is a relatively vivid example , Vanke and China Resources in Tangshan is a relatively large, whatever the outcome, many companies did not go in , go have stuck to, Tangshan, Hebei Province, the first GDP city , even higher than the Shijiazhuang lot more than three years of urban construction import almost no population growth , the city's industrial structure is the basic iron and steel , coal , cement , ceramics, the majority of these companies are government -owned monopoly and , rarely several large mines and government Gouzhuo also investigate Tangshan many rich people , but again, found that the rich are not Tangshan buy a house, buy a house in Beijing, basically . Key middle schools did not, three hospitals on two , is a very traditional northern city economic structure, the government monopoly economy, private capital and private enterprises are almost no developed , plus engage in environmental protection, to be pushed to a variety of furnaces Vanke in Tangshan has turn no stop condition. Few such cities in the country , with the government defying land , basically only the land is the only source of government finances , in this case , the sale of these cities , since the past six months , is in a sharp deterioration in the basic rate of state .
Now the question is actually quite inventory sharp , Vanke also made statistics with previous years in March to speed up different technology , 27 major cities , the majority of consumer deposit ratio rose 21 cities in more than 12 months, nine cities in more than 24 months , such as: Guangzhou-Shenzhen area , Shanghai area , Beijing region , Chengdu regional perspective, Shenzhen elimination than 29 months deposit , Changsha 24 months ( mean 21 months we are a risk cordon Yes, but different views of each company , the management of his company Vanke , China Vanke is the basic rate of income were Daosuan our shareholders in accordance with the cost of each source of funds and our company , we eliminate the memory of a city than to the much later stand higher than the later would be in danger ) , algorithms and measure each company is different, Wuxi in Shanghai area, 57 months, very serious, Ningbo, 36 months, 33 months , Hangzhou , Shanghai 33 months, Tianjin 39 month, Tangshan 28 months ( calculated together the entire city of Tangshan , has more than 100 months, 28 months is the city where ) , Shenyang 23 months, 30 months , Xi'an , Zhengzhou 23 months.
The overall situation in the real estate supply chain rose sharply , but the turnover rebound fatigue, total inventory increases, rising consumer deposit than most of the city, not really feel the taste of Indian summer . Tier cities land transaction , in addition to Beijing , Shanghai and one of the few places , other cities have entered into a land deal in the downstream channel , is quite obvious. Only people very difficult to understand is Beijing , there is a market for the insurance , but in fact , yesterday afternoon ( refer Evergrande (03333.HK) Masahiro Properties Ltd. a subsidiary of Beijing total price of 4.16 billion yuan , with the construction of 36,800 square meters and 15,700 square meters of housing from the housing price conditions to win the Daxing District Huangcun DX00-0101-0201 block premium rate as high as 179.95% . , same day transfer of Daxing District HUANGCUN DX00-0101-0801 , etc. block C2 commercial and financial sites , and no live auction , to be Vanke (000002.SZ/200002.SZ) and the first of the Commonwealth to 763 million yuan scored highest offer online premium rate was 0.53%. floor price of 8048.85 . yuan / square meter, far below the Hengda obtained huangcun plots ) , two pieces of land across the street , I do not know how to sell Hengda ; but because each fast out , there is a first pick out of such enterprises , making the Beijing market, the state outline is : prices are still rising fast . But now look at the structure of the land auction , participation structure has undergone significant changes , originally listed companies , large companies and the central rate and a group of famous enterprises with competition, competitiveness is very real, both in placards . But now the situation is different, the number of companies have now basically Registration rapid decay , but there is always such a business , people do not give up , they are still held , has been fight to the end, so every time a pair of lovers emerge to Finally , no matter how the two companies cited , but the price is high , so the overall look , from the tender , sign up to get to , in fact, have this serious decay , like some of the more mature in Beijing for a long time in Beijing the development of the enterprise, for example, the first initiative , construction, live in total , Vanke , etc., is now basically are relatively mild condition.
Currently it can be said in addition to these cities , the whole of which are in the downlink , emphasizing the policy now in transition , turning to the classification regulation and control from a strong administrative intervention to weaken the administration, return to the market , on the way back into the market , the continued tightening of credit , plus downside risks to the macroeconomic , leading to lack of confidence in the market is now more obvious phenomenon .
This year the bank is particularly interesting , and I put in a quarter of intensity more than 20 governors , and they talk , in the end how the bank , the bank basically did not find this year's task , not the task of a quarter of the mortgage , there are tasks before but this does not , this is the top to the bank to sign a share, the bank can put the put , you can not put the hold, nobody put no blame you , this is a relatively strange phenomenon this year ; second , like everyone I do not know when the Bank of China , Industrial and Commercial Bank of China , Bank of Communications , CITIC Bank, these banks which have set up a department, the department is looking for the people inside to come from the market and real estate development people have done to it in the future , they begin to analyze , for example: China CITIC Bank Beijing began to analyze : Recently took 20 , a mortgage which projects they want to track their target to aim at what items to the mortgage, as before, previously a branch of Bank of Beijing , the direct discharge on the right, but now it is a piece of analysis , such as why the land of his 30,000 , you 8,000 ( alluding Vanke and Evergrande projects across the way ) , and then say the project blacklisted risk that they people in the bank to analyze mortgage , a first : banks with market-oriented vision began to look at the project , but now he is in the analysis , thought a bit like a trust ; after the second stating that they do not lend task , no task , they want to put some good , he picked .
On the debt ratio , Vanke also recently studied , according to Orient Securities Analysis , 2012 to develop the real estate business class net debt ratio is 65% , the average debt ratio is 43% of leading enterprises , the proportion of cash in general are low ; debt ratio , from the past year , the cities of developers , especially developers, high debt ratio urban land prices have to rise very serious phenomenon . Such as Beijing took place more fierce , like Taihe , very high debt ratio ; addition, these companies get to play there one that is expensive to get to later, went to gold master to borrow money , the money borrowed , Built mortgage options available, there are a number of projects have been developed to actually get to the real business of equity has dropped to the point where only a few , have a lot of options in gold master 's hands. But a lot of money to gold master are very expensive , very high, so these items can not withstand the test of slow sales is a big problem in the future.
So there is a conclusion , macro- control, the real estate market in 2014 , does have a larger change in government since 2014 , but also a lot of ideas , a lot of pressure steady growth , tight credit , rising financing costs , the entire Chinese economy difficult to recover , in fact, with the uncertainty , then another , in the past year , heavy volume of land , especially as Beijing , Shanghai listed real estate owner-occupied land , triggering short-term customers wait for the market to form a virtual supply image. Making short-term rigid requirements are crawling on goods from the housing , do not move, is also a feature , but from Beijing , Shanghai now, supply and demand are still not immediately eased demand for rigid demand is still very large . Here also said that under China Vanke Beijing market by the end of this year and early next year a judgment : because I also participated in a number of municipalities will be roughly the end of 2014 , beginning of 2015 , that is to take place in 2013, these are relatively your land , it will be listed , Beijing probably will be 42 real estate 50 000 -12 square between the floor price , the location of which more than 40 real estate distribution , there are, but there is a phenomenon virtually no one in five loops inside , copy number based on the volume rate estimates , roughly between 40,000 -50,000 copy number, but which does not include re live , if you take a piece of land Hengda recently to re live it, there are a large number of houses to the market, because Beijing in 2013 to sell the land , there are already more than half of the residential land , commercial land , commercial land , but these companies took basically wanted nothing commercial, are seeking suppliers change lives , and if so , it is necessary together with a number of residential market, and these re live floor price lower than residential , so at the end of 2014, Beijing , there will be a group of 4-5 million homes , very representative of the line, whether it is mainstream , not tell. The price range of the house , will be a fairly large one batch on the market . I have these houses, I myself was holding a relatively pessimistic , because I think , Beijing canceled the purchase , almost hopeless , following a large study came, personally formulated the future direction of Beijing , Beijing is basically a severe restriction policy, I do not think in the next 3-5 years, Beijing might cancel the purchase ; If you can not cancel the purchase , plus so many houses flooded the market , coupled with the anti-corruption , I, as a practitioner , is a very high value . In Beijing, the situation now is good , 7-8 million units a year , with second-hand housing ,13 -14 million units , about the 200,000 units, such as a stable figure. Thus, if all of a sudden came running in this market are more than 50,000 sets of 5 million house, I do not know just what people need , arrived in the floor price is 50,000 people, I feel that I have not just ( refer to Mao Daqing I ) , so just do not know who would , in how many people do feel that the price of $ 50,000 is easy ( there are a lot of people laugh at the venue ) , I personally believe the company 's employees, in real estate circles revenue OK, I do not see what people can afford to buy such a house , these are the current analysis of the market .
Here is another one of my view, for the future of China's real estate , there are some places worth careful ( individuals inside Vanke has always been a disadvantage and risk analysis ) , one point of view: the housing supply is not yet a serious shortage of the past years , we have been studying , for that matter , there are a number of developed countries , a stable real estate market in the city of 1.1 sets per household , per capita between 1.1 , it means that the market is relatively stable. The household and per capita , per capita urban population does not mean , per capita refers to the resident population . Such laws are in view, Beijing apparently still insufficient , but many cities, the current inventory are counted , in fact, already is enough , this is a worthwhile observation data . This data is then used a ruler to what amount of it, we now have a ruler , called copy number in thousands of cities , which represents residential market supply capacity levels and infer that it is an important indicator to measure the international ( not a business venue with this ruler to measure ) . In this give you points below: China thousands of construction copy number, in accordance with the completion of view ,2009- 2011 caliber , we completed the whole area of social housing , the average annual 1.85 billion square feet , equivalent to an average annual construction 16.27 million units , the construction of thousands of copy number 12.1 units ; same period in the housing area per capita average of 905 million square meters , equivalent copy number of 8.01 million units, 12 units for thousands of people , according to the completion of caliber , in recent years, China 's equivalent to the peak levels of thousands of copy number of other countries, have peaked , but acceptable , this conclusion does not ignore two considerations: the completion of a currently operating far below , a large number of illegal housing, housing units , a small property room , private housing does not keep statistics on in the data , we looked through the major countries , the United States , Canada, Germany, Australia , Britain, Japan , South Korea , Sweden, even in the height of the process of urbanization among the highest , or global real estate boom years , in addition to South Korea, Japan , generally no more than 12 , and all countries have no more than 14 ; follow housing starts caliber , China construction thousands of copy number in this century , in fact, rising from the beginning of the century, 5 ( 2000 5 ) to 2011 has exceeded 20 in recent years, the security room , if added together , were started in about ten million units, still not considered in the construction of illegal housing, housing units , a small property room , private housing , and so on , in 2011 China construction of thousands of copy number has reached 35 units, which is unprecedented in human history there have been high , indicating that the amount of our construction and future reinvestment source from the amount of speaking, is quite considerable.
From the point of view of urban types , first-tier cities is still relatively reasonable , relatively speaking , a relatively reasonable level 10-15 ; trends in the third and fourth tier cities is relatively similar to the national average rate , the biggest problem is actually in second-tier cities , to 2011 , thousands of people started units only commodity housing , has reached 30 , the situation is more severe . We made a list of the cities , there are more serious Hohhot , the average of the past three years has reached 70 , 49 , Shenyang , Xi'an, 38 , 37 , etc. are among the best in Guiyang city , the first 10 rows of the second-tier cities Hefei , Guiyang , Chongqing, Changchun, Dalian, Kunming ; commodity housing thousands of people started units 26 three- , four- tier cities in 2006 only half of the more than 15 , to 2012 , and nearly three years on average , almost all higher than 15 , in addition to Foshan , Quanzhou, Wenzhou, no more than 15 , the other all higher than 15 , one of the most horrible of a city called Yingkou , thousands of frenzied growth started units , up nearly three-year average 93.3 average , has been to the extent incomprehensible . So from the perspective of autonomy , if the house is not fried , not to the real estate promoter, and shift the house for the purpose of the case, the national housing supply shortage situation , in fact, have begun turning point from the year 2009 , the past three years, China has created a housing high human history . The ability to attract new investment immigration and immigrants in the city , commodity housing starts in 1000 20 ---- 25 copy number is still safe , first-tier cities in the beginning of this century, generally at this level, the individual second-tier cities and even long-term over 30 40 , can not but be highly vigilant , the degree of overdraft second-tier cities are the most noteworthy , may be more than three or four cities , but the lack of capacity and investment capacity to attract three or four -tier cities , second-tier cities is better oriented capabilities , more than a few two points.
Overall, the Chinese commercial new construction has reached its limit , the future is still able to maintain growth in the city's main eastern city with some of the three or four -tier cities , we believe there is potential for the growth of him . As housing prices are still up space for a high proportion of inventory , backlog high city, in recent years, do not see the possibility of rising again unless the country introduced a few trillion. From the first-tier cities, the prices of the world, the city center median prices of the top 10 Hong Kong, Singapore , London, Taipei , Sydney , New York, Tokyo , Beijing , Munich , Seoul, Shanghai , Moscow, Beijing and Shanghai has entered the highest in the world , and even parts of Beijing and Shanghai housing prices have gone beyond the tokyo and New York. We see this in the United States , in fact, the United States is still very cost houses , Tokyo house price in about 6-7 million yuan.
Look at the total value of the land , is an important indicator to monitor estate bubble , with the sharp rise in land prices , we look at the real estate bubble in Japan in the past, in fact, he occupies a total land value of the ratio between the GDP, we are into the analysis, 1990 , the value of tokyo land $ 4.1 trillion ( there is a formula to calculate the value of land ) , and the United States the country's considerable land value , accounting for 63.3% of GDP in the United States over the same period ; 1997 land values in the $ 5.7 trillion in Hong Kong , accounting for 66.3 percent of GDP in the United States over the same period ; 2012 Beijing land value of about $ 10 trillion , accounting for 61.6% of GDP in the United States over the same period , so this is a very scary number.
As house prices to income ratio , do not say that China does not belong to low . So from many point of view, China's housing prices rose sharply in a short space of reason for existence is not sufficient , on the contrary there is a lot of data show that in 2013 China real estate market and Japan, Hong Kong bubble similar characteristics ; then from the price earnings ratio, the ratio of rental prices data, Beijing , Shanghai climbed speed has reached levels at or near the date tokyo , Hong Kong, bubble period. Because real estate is a very obvious cyclical industry , the occurrence of historical events on developed economies , it is possible to reproduce in China in the future , it is necessary to understand their data in a logical relationship between the occurrence of bubble period, for us to circumvent we may arise situations.
Finally, I would say the relationship between economic background and the real estate industry , as well as noteworthy structural and demographic point of view, a learning and Lee , attitudes are now taking economic solutions, I personally think that political reform and economic measures from two terms they make out the means and methods of 10 years ago or even compared to previous years , there may be a fundamental farewell , or simply cut off. It's obvious that the problem of corruption in terms of attitude , to change the way the economic measures are basically a farewell attitude can not say break , but at least the attitude is to cut off the relationship , this attitude is obvious, or that has clearly expressed. Meaning that the past 10 years or a little longer time , economic means basically M2 or monetary stimulus as the leading means of this means we do not have to be coupled with proper guidance in the field of innovation or investment guidance , making a lot of money are back to the land and real estate , of course, including infrastructure investment and investment in fixed assets , etc. but these things are not the future of the industry to create value , are sometimes happy industry , the state , and I think all of our real estate industry practitioners who we enjoyed in the past so happy, but that does not mean that the state of health of the individual is considered such a problem . China such a state, we are drowsily , like the state of the drug after eating this , of course, is to eat the addiction addictive , so it constantly stimulated , they continue to get money , and constantly made money , have continued to get land finance . It has a particularly strange phenomenon, such a situation , banks have high profits , which actually has a lot of potential economic bubble in it, and the thing you want to say goodbye , take a disciplined , have the financial means to restrict , or a financial measures indulgence , to which we have a lot of economists say there is a great national infrastructure investment to GDP this to tell you that there is a strong driving force , but the fault lies in the fact the country has been on investment in fixed assets and infrastructure major efforts , but in fact far from supporting creative enterprises, the development of private enterprises and SMEs , the efficiency of social investment , the efficiency of this investment is the worst ; for state-owned enterprises, monopolies, fixed asset investment for this investment does not produce the most effect on future revenue , if you private enterprises , independent innovation enterprises to invest , then a whole other situation , these industries will find his own future living space , it 's very creative , so , is not this generation to take firm and decisive measures at this point , only to see him today tightened in crowded bubble, but still do not see what he was above to encourage and develop , so this is still a tail number .
The second is that China is now facing a problem very anxious that we rapidly changing demographics rapidly in the past year , we made a study of the real estate industry and Vanke and seemingly nothing , we pick up a topic , we 7 Ph.D. , pick up a subject , to a central authority , in front of the Third Plenary Shiba Jie nearly a year , when the population studied structural change in China , the seven individuals are seven industries , were made 7 report , the final summary together, so I finally got quite a thrilling figures , sharing a few numbers here , one is in the 2028-2033 years, our country 's population aged over 60 will reach 3.9 --- 440 000 000 , we take Tarsus 400 million , the population over the age of 60 , at around 2033 there will be around , with 270 million population is dependent , that is, 670 million was brought large numbers of people, this time in China, the dependency ratio will be close to the real 1:1 states , of which 270 million population, 40 million of the 230 million people with disabilities and minors ; then we then study the remaining population of over 700 million , which means that we have 700 million people want to 6.7 custody million population is dependent dependents , which 700 million people, we have made a more detailed classification of the population , and then take a coefficient of 0.6 ( that is, a person can raise a person and more capability ) , that the future will faced with over 500 million population of 900 million people dependent situation , today's China is about 900 million people to raise 500 million people of the situation , so in 18 years, this figure will have a clear reversal , after this reverse, will bring What serious problems , all the dependency ratio approaching or exceeding 1:1 countries around has several characteristics: rapid economic growth slowed , reducing jobs , national burden, with the extension of the retirement age to delay caused by pressure on the country 's social welfare further brings enterprise seniority , so the phenomenon of young people did not rise channel , innovation greatly weakened. And China is probably the most apt Japan, which raised tens of millions of thousands of people in Japan in 1997 after entering the dependency ratio in this state , the economy began to slow down quickly , and today are not freed , but Japan 20 not many years of economic growth, but the quality of life of the people and have declined in 1991 because of his age he was when Japan's economic structure reasonable than many of today's China , Japan, in 1991 , when GDP grew ten factors of pulling power , 60% of science and technology into productive forces brought GDP growth, therefore , essentially the Japanese in the 1990s into an aging design , after the economic slowdown , Japan's economic structure is far superior to today's China . We made a model , almost afraid to imagine GDP growth in 2030 was generated by the technology into productivity , if not , the country will be more trouble. Therefore, the Chinese real estate ceilings fact in this 18 -year period , it must be achieved , not fantasy sustainable development to 2030 , prices can go up forever .
Finally, to say that I feel a hint of coolness, for some cities , this is a non-policy regulation of the real estate recession , there may be a long time to bring the city's real estate rebound in a difficult situation , it is possible for a long time will
In summary, i felt he was trying to say that 1st tier cities and the coastal cities will face downside risk in home prices in the short term but should be ok in the long term. The dangers are in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th tier cities where most are over-built to the extent of >24 months in housing supply.
[Financial Reuters recently , Mao Daqing , vice president of Vanke Sharon in his speech came on the building policy , which said the national real estate market differentiation , causing public concern.
After the speech is widely spread , the blue whale Financial Reporter @ Work platform Weibo said, " Mao Daqing phone off , and his men who verified . Confirmation ." @ Yi Peng in its micro-channel circle of friends said that when I check for Mao Daqing Mao denied that his speech. But now Mao Daqing not open himself to admit or deny .
Sharon Chen Huai , director of policy built man released microblogging , Sharon speech was leaked and misinterpreted angry , indirectly confirmed the authenticity of the speech . Chen Huai micro-Bo said : " The total net mass Vanke hair salon an internal speech , which impressed me just as I hosted , Mao talked about the key points total , one is sensitive to market price points , and second division in different cities . Third, some cities blind expansion. no exaggeration to talk the language of the recent market beyond . Given the participants do not appreciate this opportunity to exchange ideas , do not have this salon up ! "
Mao Daqing , vice president of Vanke text of speeches on the construction of Sharon's policy as follows :
This year's market . And Vanke , like all of you since the first quarter of the market , that are more complex , the first frank talk about the personal analysis of the market . At the end of last year , I had an interview , once it comes ,2013 -14 -year period , there may be a relatively large market differentiation , individuals had talked to a number of meetings from now on focus on the 50 city view, has obviously differentiated features 50 urban background : ( country since the 2003 implementation of the policy control, last year , a full 10 years , in 2014 there is no regulation to implement the policy in the past 10 years, strong policy control, total there are over 43 times the policy control, which issued more than 179 four ministries file, which documents 179 individuals affected by Ren ( microblogging ) greater impact, like analysis , individuals will find all 179 documents , and fight together read ( mock personal sick ) , found : 179 papers incoherently , there are many kinds of things did not implement ; but that 179 documents a revelation to me : once again confirms the Chinese real estate has a real estate problem areas , in this country there are more than four ministries beginning of the file , each file has a period he called to point to this file: from more than 30 cities in more than 70 cities , up to 50-60 cities are mentioned in the case , in fact , a closer look, the 50-60 cities more obvious signs of the Chinese real estate various features , long since Vanke , research institutes and institutions of our own research department analyzed more, in fact, 36-50 is the state between cities ) . This 50 cities from 13 -14 year end , there were two situations: one is represented by second-tier cities , there has been more obvious characteristics: due to excessive supply of land , brought about the future or the ability of the market to overdraft ability to sell these cities on behalf of the more obvious is that Shenyang , with a clear representative of some third-tier cities will not give up , such as: Yingkou , Anshan, Tangshan and the like . Cities like Shenyang, about 30 to one ( in 50 cities inside ) , basically due to the impact of market oversupply brought ; Second, there are some cities to Beijing as the representative of the market is still, pretty much demand but he fluctuations that land prices in the past year due to rising too fast , we have to represent the slope , the slope is very oblique 13 years , is the sum of the slope in the past several years has brought to the market price to rise overdraft , so basically two types of cities have appeared in the case of overdraft ; created a quarter of this year , coupled with the country for the loan , the bank's tightening policy , these three points ( two overdraft plus a tightening ) , making this year we have universal significance of the market there has been a negative , more wait and see, such a pessimistic state , might such a situation can cover most of the city.
Assist a disturbance factor is the anti-corruption ( Star River on behalf of the anti-corruption Xinghewan afternoon made a great impact ) , as our developers say that the anti-corruption impact on high-end real estate , in fact, still very large. For high-end disk anti-corruption effects , not least a number of corrupt officials , but a number of things with this connected , directly or indirectly , including industry , as well as a group of people to hold high-end real estate doubts psychology. Each city is different, such as Shanxi , we are also concerned about the Xinghewan this project, he affected the coal industry as a whole . We Vanke in Beijing 's high-end real estate, in the past three weeks , the reception only Procuratorate , Ji Jianwei , 14-15 times on the big , dense We cooperate with the investigation of a real estate (the price of 4,5 million per flat ) , other more expensive real estate developers are afraid to think about what was happening . So , at least in the recent period of time, the anti-corruption is still quite evident on the property of a disturbance factor .
Meanwhile , in Beijing 's second-hand housing market, a more honest feel the influence brought by , for example, and I love my family , the chain of home two second-hand stores mainstream communication , especially to get such a chain of family data , main ( Beijing Homelink basic accounting for more than half of the market ) , the amount of their single-day single- pending stores ( single-day volume is pending second-hand housing market is very important data ) from the original five houses, the sharp increase to 10 - 12 house, and a lot of pending single master , asking them to sell as soon as possible , to give a substantial discount , and even cut prices, showing that this house did not know how to , for example : where a prefecture-level city in province Public Security Bureau in Beijing selling a house ( this person has to go up ) , the Beijing market intermediaries , looking for a 44 stores to hang his house , he 's the number of houses in Beijing , in the 1-2 building, presumably to help him hang his people men , wife, mistress , etc., regardless of the cost when hanging , death-defying rejection . Bring serious consequences of rejection slowing sales of second-hand housing , this situation we can go to the store to see ( I am 13 years also sell a house, 100 square meters of the house , they can not sell , it is now getting increasingly sell, broker let me price, I told the broker that I sold at cost price , did not calculate the interest , the outcome is that I do not sell, rent received ) ;
Beijing also has a more complex factors : self- occupied housing , owner-occupied housing supply , for a number of buyers just need to give them a relatively cheap price , can buy a Built in the house , but in fact this expectation also quite unreal, his supply is very limited, Beijing Jinyu Ka Yip , two in Beijing have a better place to house about 5000 , I still have not started selling , queuing applicants , excluding repetitive, 5000 sets house , the number of families applying for the 250,000 ; does not eliminate repetitive, the number of households in 450,000 applications . So Beijing market is there, people are anxious to buy a house in a lot , but these people have not constitute support for high-end real estate . This is what I want to express the view that more than 90% of the market is still rigid demand, they are particularly sensitive to the critical point . Some time ago Vanke in Beijing to sell the house ( Zhuzong Vanke Vanke orange jointly developed projects 22,000 per square ) , caused an uproar in the market , the project is required Construction Committee reasonable price point lower, Vanke proposed shareholders , cooperation partners , can not sell , but still requires selling Construction Committee , asked us to take the lead . Cheap sell later, reporters wrote many articles , to collapse , and Vanke cut prices to take the lead , and that his son is currently the center of a Standing Committee from the United States to call me and asked me if I was really going down a house in Beijing , and I said that the government let me dry, you ask me. Case is four hours sold . Sold in the state : prices and Beijing 's almost the same as owner-occupied housing . However, we tested if we put another real estate prices to sell 2.8-2.9 million and decrease in the number of buyers immediately sold 30,000 , more obvious ; So now the price the market will bear visible space and the range is very clear . We have a Construction Committee approved a level of 36,000 per project , in Beijing Yizhuang , sold 40 percent after the opening bell , the amount left behind very slowly , and we can see that the 22,000 items 4 sale sold , 3.6 million project is very slow.
The current situation is a good point in Beijing and Shanghai , including Guangzhou and Shenzhen and other cities , the market is not good. I simply digitally Description: We examined changes in 24 key cities of turnover , the 2013 and 2014 1,2,3 month , down : January 13 % February 21 %, 30 % in March , as In April, we think better where to go . Changes in consumer deposit ratio of 24 key cities is quite large, of course, sealed off the bank , the customer sentiment increased this change.
There are a few of the more important data, we divided 100 billion of the city, divided into: Beijing , Tianjin , Shenyang, Qingdao ( northern cities as a model ) , 100 billion urban housing supply area , down , Beijing is 23% ( a lot of companies do not sell now , the government has not granted limit ) ; Tianjin rose by 106% qoq , rose 8% ; Shenyang rose 205 percent , rose 78 percent , above all rose ; Qingdao is also on the rise ;
Commercial housing turnover , the total amount , Beijing fell 37% , a 35% decrease in Tianjin , Qingdao, down 45 % to 40% drop in Dalian , Jinan dropped 43 percent , 66 percent decline in Taiyuan , has decreased significantly ;
Wholesale than a lot of cities are greater than 1 , Beijing is 1.2 , 1.9 , Qingdao , Yantai and 1.4 , these data seem on the deteriorating state.
We also saw the listing of real estate , compared to turnover of the area in terms of land , if less than 1 , it means that a large number of transactions into the ground , but did not enter the market , such as Tianjin , Shenyang, Qingdao, Dalian and so on , all less than one , as evidenced by siltation of land in the hands of developers or big amount , but these cities approved the sale of real estate than what it is , it is more than 1 , indicating that part already listed backlog , such as Tianjin , real estate transactions listed land of contrasts is 0.65 , but the ratio has approved the sale of real estate to 1.48 , indicating that the ground is not completely listed, but approved the sale of the house has begun a backlog ;
We look at premium prices is poor, we judge , if less than 5,000 yuan , it is difficult to have a profit margin , we cited a dozen cities , there are 10,824 yuan only Beijing and Tianjin are 8419 yuan, 4847 yuan Shenyang (Shenyang now want money is hard enough ) , Qingdao 7,000 yuan, 8,000 yuan in Dalian , Jinan, 6,000 yuan, 5,000 yuan Changchun , Tangshan 4,800 yuan , 4,900 yuan , Anshan , Fushun, 3500.
3 -year inventory of new consumer deposit ratio , the majority of the city , only new stock had reached more than enough to sell 1 -year, 3 -year inventory of consumer deposit ratio , the more serious , such as: 17 in Tianjin , Shenyang, 7 , 16 in Qingdao , Yantai 38 , Anshan 20 , 22 , etc. Tangshan ; Tangshan is a relatively vivid example , Vanke and China Resources in Tangshan is a relatively large, whatever the outcome, many companies did not go in , go have stuck to, Tangshan, Hebei Province, the first GDP city , even higher than the Shijiazhuang lot more than three years of urban construction import almost no population growth , the city's industrial structure is the basic iron and steel , coal , cement , ceramics, the majority of these companies are government -owned monopoly and , rarely several large mines and government Gouzhuo also investigate Tangshan many rich people , but again, found that the rich are not Tangshan buy a house, buy a house in Beijing, basically . Key middle schools did not, three hospitals on two , is a very traditional northern city economic structure, the government monopoly economy, private capital and private enterprises are almost no developed , plus engage in environmental protection, to be pushed to a variety of furnaces Vanke in Tangshan has turn no stop condition. Few such cities in the country , with the government defying land , basically only the land is the only source of government finances , in this case , the sale of these cities , since the past six months , is in a sharp deterioration in the basic rate of state .
Now the question is actually quite inventory sharp , Vanke also made statistics with previous years in March to speed up different technology , 27 major cities , the majority of consumer deposit ratio rose 21 cities in more than 12 months, nine cities in more than 24 months , such as: Guangzhou-Shenzhen area , Shanghai area , Beijing region , Chengdu regional perspective, Shenzhen elimination than 29 months deposit , Changsha 24 months ( mean 21 months we are a risk cordon Yes, but different views of each company , the management of his company Vanke , China Vanke is the basic rate of income were Daosuan our shareholders in accordance with the cost of each source of funds and our company , we eliminate the memory of a city than to the much later stand higher than the later would be in danger ) , algorithms and measure each company is different, Wuxi in Shanghai area, 57 months, very serious, Ningbo, 36 months, 33 months , Hangzhou , Shanghai 33 months, Tianjin 39 month, Tangshan 28 months ( calculated together the entire city of Tangshan , has more than 100 months, 28 months is the city where ) , Shenyang 23 months, 30 months , Xi'an , Zhengzhou 23 months.
The overall situation in the real estate supply chain rose sharply , but the turnover rebound fatigue, total inventory increases, rising consumer deposit than most of the city, not really feel the taste of Indian summer . Tier cities land transaction , in addition to Beijing , Shanghai and one of the few places , other cities have entered into a land deal in the downstream channel , is quite obvious. Only people very difficult to understand is Beijing , there is a market for the insurance , but in fact , yesterday afternoon ( refer Evergrande (03333.HK) Masahiro Properties Ltd. a subsidiary of Beijing total price of 4.16 billion yuan , with the construction of 36,800 square meters and 15,700 square meters of housing from the housing price conditions to win the Daxing District Huangcun DX00-0101-0201 block premium rate as high as 179.95% . , same day transfer of Daxing District HUANGCUN DX00-0101-0801 , etc. block C2 commercial and financial sites , and no live auction , to be Vanke (000002.SZ/200002.SZ) and the first of the Commonwealth to 763 million yuan scored highest offer online premium rate was 0.53%. floor price of 8048.85 . yuan / square meter, far below the Hengda obtained huangcun plots ) , two pieces of land across the street , I do not know how to sell Hengda ; but because each fast out , there is a first pick out of such enterprises , making the Beijing market, the state outline is : prices are still rising fast . But now look at the structure of the land auction , participation structure has undergone significant changes , originally listed companies , large companies and the central rate and a group of famous enterprises with competition, competitiveness is very real, both in placards . But now the situation is different, the number of companies have now basically Registration rapid decay , but there is always such a business , people do not give up , they are still held , has been fight to the end, so every time a pair of lovers emerge to Finally , no matter how the two companies cited , but the price is high , so the overall look , from the tender , sign up to get to , in fact, have this serious decay , like some of the more mature in Beijing for a long time in Beijing the development of the enterprise, for example, the first initiative , construction, live in total , Vanke , etc., is now basically are relatively mild condition.
Currently it can be said in addition to these cities , the whole of which are in the downlink , emphasizing the policy now in transition , turning to the classification regulation and control from a strong administrative intervention to weaken the administration, return to the market , on the way back into the market , the continued tightening of credit , plus downside risks to the macroeconomic , leading to lack of confidence in the market is now more obvious phenomenon .
This year the bank is particularly interesting , and I put in a quarter of intensity more than 20 governors , and they talk , in the end how the bank , the bank basically did not find this year's task , not the task of a quarter of the mortgage , there are tasks before but this does not , this is the top to the bank to sign a share, the bank can put the put , you can not put the hold, nobody put no blame you , this is a relatively strange phenomenon this year ; second , like everyone I do not know when the Bank of China , Industrial and Commercial Bank of China , Bank of Communications , CITIC Bank, these banks which have set up a department, the department is looking for the people inside to come from the market and real estate development people have done to it in the future , they begin to analyze , for example: China CITIC Bank Beijing began to analyze : Recently took 20 , a mortgage which projects they want to track their target to aim at what items to the mortgage, as before, previously a branch of Bank of Beijing , the direct discharge on the right, but now it is a piece of analysis , such as why the land of his 30,000 , you 8,000 ( alluding Vanke and Evergrande projects across the way ) , and then say the project blacklisted risk that they people in the bank to analyze mortgage , a first : banks with market-oriented vision began to look at the project , but now he is in the analysis , thought a bit like a trust ; after the second stating that they do not lend task , no task , they want to put some good , he picked .
On the debt ratio , Vanke also recently studied , according to Orient Securities Analysis , 2012 to develop the real estate business class net debt ratio is 65% , the average debt ratio is 43% of leading enterprises , the proportion of cash in general are low ; debt ratio , from the past year , the cities of developers , especially developers, high debt ratio urban land prices have to rise very serious phenomenon . Such as Beijing took place more fierce , like Taihe , very high debt ratio ; addition, these companies get to play there one that is expensive to get to later, went to gold master to borrow money , the money borrowed , Built mortgage options available, there are a number of projects have been developed to actually get to the real business of equity has dropped to the point where only a few , have a lot of options in gold master 's hands. But a lot of money to gold master are very expensive , very high, so these items can not withstand the test of slow sales is a big problem in the future.
So there is a conclusion , macro- control, the real estate market in 2014 , does have a larger change in government since 2014 , but also a lot of ideas , a lot of pressure steady growth , tight credit , rising financing costs , the entire Chinese economy difficult to recover , in fact, with the uncertainty , then another , in the past year , heavy volume of land , especially as Beijing , Shanghai listed real estate owner-occupied land , triggering short-term customers wait for the market to form a virtual supply image. Making short-term rigid requirements are crawling on goods from the housing , do not move, is also a feature , but from Beijing , Shanghai now, supply and demand are still not immediately eased demand for rigid demand is still very large . Here also said that under China Vanke Beijing market by the end of this year and early next year a judgment : because I also participated in a number of municipalities will be roughly the end of 2014 , beginning of 2015 , that is to take place in 2013, these are relatively your land , it will be listed , Beijing probably will be 42 real estate 50 000 -12 square between the floor price , the location of which more than 40 real estate distribution , there are, but there is a phenomenon virtually no one in five loops inside , copy number based on the volume rate estimates , roughly between 40,000 -50,000 copy number, but which does not include re live , if you take a piece of land Hengda recently to re live it, there are a large number of houses to the market, because Beijing in 2013 to sell the land , there are already more than half of the residential land , commercial land , commercial land , but these companies took basically wanted nothing commercial, are seeking suppliers change lives , and if so , it is necessary together with a number of residential market, and these re live floor price lower than residential , so at the end of 2014, Beijing , there will be a group of 4-5 million homes , very representative of the line, whether it is mainstream , not tell. The price range of the house , will be a fairly large one batch on the market . I have these houses, I myself was holding a relatively pessimistic , because I think , Beijing canceled the purchase , almost hopeless , following a large study came, personally formulated the future direction of Beijing , Beijing is basically a severe restriction policy, I do not think in the next 3-5 years, Beijing might cancel the purchase ; If you can not cancel the purchase , plus so many houses flooded the market , coupled with the anti-corruption , I, as a practitioner , is a very high value . In Beijing, the situation now is good , 7-8 million units a year , with second-hand housing ,13 -14 million units , about the 200,000 units, such as a stable figure. Thus, if all of a sudden came running in this market are more than 50,000 sets of 5 million house, I do not know just what people need , arrived in the floor price is 50,000 people, I feel that I have not just ( refer to Mao Daqing I ) , so just do not know who would , in how many people do feel that the price of $ 50,000 is easy ( there are a lot of people laugh at the venue ) , I personally believe the company 's employees, in real estate circles revenue OK, I do not see what people can afford to buy such a house , these are the current analysis of the market .
Here is another one of my view, for the future of China's real estate , there are some places worth careful ( individuals inside Vanke has always been a disadvantage and risk analysis ) , one point of view: the housing supply is not yet a serious shortage of the past years , we have been studying , for that matter , there are a number of developed countries , a stable real estate market in the city of 1.1 sets per household , per capita between 1.1 , it means that the market is relatively stable. The household and per capita , per capita urban population does not mean , per capita refers to the resident population . Such laws are in view, Beijing apparently still insufficient , but many cities, the current inventory are counted , in fact, already is enough , this is a worthwhile observation data . This data is then used a ruler to what amount of it, we now have a ruler , called copy number in thousands of cities , which represents residential market supply capacity levels and infer that it is an important indicator to measure the international ( not a business venue with this ruler to measure ) . In this give you points below: China thousands of construction copy number, in accordance with the completion of view ,2009- 2011 caliber , we completed the whole area of social housing , the average annual 1.85 billion square feet , equivalent to an average annual construction 16.27 million units , the construction of thousands of copy number 12.1 units ; same period in the housing area per capita average of 905 million square meters , equivalent copy number of 8.01 million units, 12 units for thousands of people , according to the completion of caliber , in recent years, China 's equivalent to the peak levels of thousands of copy number of other countries, have peaked , but acceptable , this conclusion does not ignore two considerations: the completion of a currently operating far below , a large number of illegal housing, housing units , a small property room , private housing does not keep statistics on in the data , we looked through the major countries , the United States , Canada, Germany, Australia , Britain, Japan , South Korea , Sweden, even in the height of the process of urbanization among the highest , or global real estate boom years , in addition to South Korea, Japan , generally no more than 12 , and all countries have no more than 14 ; follow housing starts caliber , China construction thousands of copy number in this century , in fact, rising from the beginning of the century, 5 ( 2000 5 ) to 2011 has exceeded 20 in recent years, the security room , if added together , were started in about ten million units, still not considered in the construction of illegal housing, housing units , a small property room , private housing , and so on , in 2011 China construction of thousands of copy number has reached 35 units, which is unprecedented in human history there have been high , indicating that the amount of our construction and future reinvestment source from the amount of speaking, is quite considerable.
From the point of view of urban types , first-tier cities is still relatively reasonable , relatively speaking , a relatively reasonable level 10-15 ; trends in the third and fourth tier cities is relatively similar to the national average rate , the biggest problem is actually in second-tier cities , to 2011 , thousands of people started units only commodity housing , has reached 30 , the situation is more severe . We made a list of the cities , there are more serious Hohhot , the average of the past three years has reached 70 , 49 , Shenyang , Xi'an, 38 , 37 , etc. are among the best in Guiyang city , the first 10 rows of the second-tier cities Hefei , Guiyang , Chongqing, Changchun, Dalian, Kunming ; commodity housing thousands of people started units 26 three- , four- tier cities in 2006 only half of the more than 15 , to 2012 , and nearly three years on average , almost all higher than 15 , in addition to Foshan , Quanzhou, Wenzhou, no more than 15 , the other all higher than 15 , one of the most horrible of a city called Yingkou , thousands of frenzied growth started units , up nearly three-year average 93.3 average , has been to the extent incomprehensible . So from the perspective of autonomy , if the house is not fried , not to the real estate promoter, and shift the house for the purpose of the case, the national housing supply shortage situation , in fact, have begun turning point from the year 2009 , the past three years, China has created a housing high human history . The ability to attract new investment immigration and immigrants in the city , commodity housing starts in 1000 20 ---- 25 copy number is still safe , first-tier cities in the beginning of this century, generally at this level, the individual second-tier cities and even long-term over 30 40 , can not but be highly vigilant , the degree of overdraft second-tier cities are the most noteworthy , may be more than three or four cities , but the lack of capacity and investment capacity to attract three or four -tier cities , second-tier cities is better oriented capabilities , more than a few two points.
Overall, the Chinese commercial new construction has reached its limit , the future is still able to maintain growth in the city's main eastern city with some of the three or four -tier cities , we believe there is potential for the growth of him . As housing prices are still up space for a high proportion of inventory , backlog high city, in recent years, do not see the possibility of rising again unless the country introduced a few trillion. From the first-tier cities, the prices of the world, the city center median prices of the top 10 Hong Kong, Singapore , London, Taipei , Sydney , New York, Tokyo , Beijing , Munich , Seoul, Shanghai , Moscow, Beijing and Shanghai has entered the highest in the world , and even parts of Beijing and Shanghai housing prices have gone beyond the tokyo and New York. We see this in the United States , in fact, the United States is still very cost houses , Tokyo house price in about 6-7 million yuan.
Look at the total value of the land , is an important indicator to monitor estate bubble , with the sharp rise in land prices , we look at the real estate bubble in Japan in the past, in fact, he occupies a total land value of the ratio between the GDP, we are into the analysis, 1990 , the value of tokyo land $ 4.1 trillion ( there is a formula to calculate the value of land ) , and the United States the country's considerable land value , accounting for 63.3% of GDP in the United States over the same period ; 1997 land values in the $ 5.7 trillion in Hong Kong , accounting for 66.3 percent of GDP in the United States over the same period ; 2012 Beijing land value of about $ 10 trillion , accounting for 61.6% of GDP in the United States over the same period , so this is a very scary number.
As house prices to income ratio , do not say that China does not belong to low . So from many point of view, China's housing prices rose sharply in a short space of reason for existence is not sufficient , on the contrary there is a lot of data show that in 2013 China real estate market and Japan, Hong Kong bubble similar characteristics ; then from the price earnings ratio, the ratio of rental prices data, Beijing , Shanghai climbed speed has reached levels at or near the date tokyo , Hong Kong, bubble period. Because real estate is a very obvious cyclical industry , the occurrence of historical events on developed economies , it is possible to reproduce in China in the future , it is necessary to understand their data in a logical relationship between the occurrence of bubble period, for us to circumvent we may arise situations.
Finally, I would say the relationship between economic background and the real estate industry , as well as noteworthy structural and demographic point of view, a learning and Lee , attitudes are now taking economic solutions, I personally think that political reform and economic measures from two terms they make out the means and methods of 10 years ago or even compared to previous years , there may be a fundamental farewell , or simply cut off. It's obvious that the problem of corruption in terms of attitude , to change the way the economic measures are basically a farewell attitude can not say break , but at least the attitude is to cut off the relationship , this attitude is obvious, or that has clearly expressed. Meaning that the past 10 years or a little longer time , economic means basically M2 or monetary stimulus as the leading means of this means we do not have to be coupled with proper guidance in the field of innovation or investment guidance , making a lot of money are back to the land and real estate , of course, including infrastructure investment and investment in fixed assets , etc. but these things are not the future of the industry to create value , are sometimes happy industry , the state , and I think all of our real estate industry practitioners who we enjoyed in the past so happy, but that does not mean that the state of health of the individual is considered such a problem . China such a state, we are drowsily , like the state of the drug after eating this , of course, is to eat the addiction addictive , so it constantly stimulated , they continue to get money , and constantly made money , have continued to get land finance . It has a particularly strange phenomenon, such a situation , banks have high profits , which actually has a lot of potential economic bubble in it, and the thing you want to say goodbye , take a disciplined , have the financial means to restrict , or a financial measures indulgence , to which we have a lot of economists say there is a great national infrastructure investment to GDP this to tell you that there is a strong driving force , but the fault lies in the fact the country has been on investment in fixed assets and infrastructure major efforts , but in fact far from supporting creative enterprises, the development of private enterprises and SMEs , the efficiency of social investment , the efficiency of this investment is the worst ; for state-owned enterprises, monopolies, fixed asset investment for this investment does not produce the most effect on future revenue , if you private enterprises , independent innovation enterprises to invest , then a whole other situation , these industries will find his own future living space , it 's very creative , so , is not this generation to take firm and decisive measures at this point , only to see him today tightened in crowded bubble, but still do not see what he was above to encourage and develop , so this is still a tail number .
The second is that China is now facing a problem very anxious that we rapidly changing demographics rapidly in the past year , we made a study of the real estate industry and Vanke and seemingly nothing , we pick up a topic , we 7 Ph.D. , pick up a subject , to a central authority , in front of the Third Plenary Shiba Jie nearly a year , when the population studied structural change in China , the seven individuals are seven industries , were made 7 report , the final summary together, so I finally got quite a thrilling figures , sharing a few numbers here , one is in the 2028-2033 years, our country 's population aged over 60 will reach 3.9 --- 440 000 000 , we take Tarsus 400 million , the population over the age of 60 , at around 2033 there will be around , with 270 million population is dependent , that is, 670 million was brought large numbers of people, this time in China, the dependency ratio will be close to the real 1:1 states , of which 270 million population, 40 million of the 230 million people with disabilities and minors ; then we then study the remaining population of over 700 million , which means that we have 700 million people want to 6.7 custody million population is dependent dependents , which 700 million people, we have made a more detailed classification of the population , and then take a coefficient of 0.6 ( that is, a person can raise a person and more capability ) , that the future will faced with over 500 million population of 900 million people dependent situation , today's China is about 900 million people to raise 500 million people of the situation , so in 18 years, this figure will have a clear reversal , after this reverse, will bring What serious problems , all the dependency ratio approaching or exceeding 1:1 countries around has several characteristics: rapid economic growth slowed , reducing jobs , national burden, with the extension of the retirement age to delay caused by pressure on the country 's social welfare further brings enterprise seniority , so the phenomenon of young people did not rise channel , innovation greatly weakened. And China is probably the most apt Japan, which raised tens of millions of thousands of people in Japan in 1997 after entering the dependency ratio in this state , the economy began to slow down quickly , and today are not freed , but Japan 20 not many years of economic growth, but the quality of life of the people and have declined in 1991 because of his age he was when Japan's economic structure reasonable than many of today's China , Japan, in 1991 , when GDP grew ten factors of pulling power , 60% of science and technology into productive forces brought GDP growth, therefore , essentially the Japanese in the 1990s into an aging design , after the economic slowdown , Japan's economic structure is far superior to today's China . We made a model , almost afraid to imagine GDP growth in 2030 was generated by the technology into productivity , if not , the country will be more trouble. Therefore, the Chinese real estate ceilings fact in this 18 -year period , it must be achieved , not fantasy sustainable development to 2030 , prices can go up forever .
Finally, to say that I feel a hint of coolness, for some cities , this is a non-policy regulation of the real estate recession , there may be a long time to bring the city's real estate rebound in a difficult situation , it is possible for a long time will
03-05-2014, 04:46 PM
"Tokyo’s total land value in 1990, prior to the property bust there, was equal to 63.3% of U.S. GDP in 1990, he said. During the Hong Kong bubble in 1997, land values there reached 66.3% of U.S. GDP
In 2012, the total land value in Beijing was 61.6% of U.S. GDP, “which is a scary number”, Mr Mao said."
Likely coincidence. Not logical to tie US GDP to other nation property collapse. There are many property collapse all over the world from small nation like us to ireland, greece etc and likely most do not have the 60%. Infact with such a big nation like China and key global player, more than 100% of US GDP is possible.
In 2012, the total land value in Beijing was 61.6% of U.S. GDP, “which is a scary number”, Mr Mao said."
Likely coincidence. Not logical to tie US GDP to other nation property collapse. There are many property collapse all over the world from small nation like us to ireland, greece etc and likely most do not have the 60%. Infact with such a big nation like China and key global player, more than 100% of US GDP is possible.
03-05-2014, 05:08 PM
Mr Mao said China’s house production per 1,000 head of population reached 35 in 2011. The figure is below 12 in most developed economies “even when the housing market is hot; no country has a figure of greater than 14”.
Chinese anatomy of a property boom on its last legs
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/amb...last-legs/
《央视财经评论》 20140430 房价下跌 市场要说话！
http://jingji.cntv.cn/2014/04/30/VIDE139...5292.shtml
http://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.p...&start=200
Chinese anatomy of a property boom on its last legs
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/amb...last-legs/
《央视财经评论》 20140430 房价下跌 市场要说话！
http://jingji.cntv.cn/2014/04/30/VIDE139...5292.shtml
http://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.p...&start=200