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(09-11-2014, 09:32 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: [ -> ]
(09-11-2014, 09:11 PM)GSG Wrote: [ -> ]Thanks! Read the link, I should say I am looking for growth stock.

Back to OSIM, May I ask what was your opinion on OSIM 1 year ago, before knowing their expansion plan to Russia, Turkey, before knowing this quarter's poor results, before knowing their new bond issue.

My opinion has always been that something fishy is going on and this stock is just a stock for playing/gambling/punting.

Even one year ago if you do this simple exercise...

Click on the link below
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=O23.SI
On the chart on the right side click max. Look at how FAST AND FURIOUS this stock has gone up and down for past 10 years.

$2 -> 5 cents -> $2

Now decide if you still want to be vested in this stock.

Thanks!
I had asked Mr. Sim a few questions at annual meeting, and try to feel whether something are fishy. Obviously, I am not experienced enough, and failed to conclude anything.

In 2014Q2 reports, words of positive outlook disappear all a sudden, unlike previous quarterly reports, which may imply a poor 2014Q3 results. This may be a signal to tell retail shareholders run for life.

Not confident to the company future, so, I have sold my shares when price drop.
Not necessary to sell at current level though... One may play both directions for trading.. At current level, a 'fair premium' may be established and should avoid further drop in short term... Punters may flock back.. Balancing of supply and demand is the key
Crabcrab is newbies ..... Enlighten me if any... :)
After a quick look at Osim's latest Q3 results and B/S…..
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/OSIMQ320...eID=320762
I have the following observations/questions:
(1) As at 30Sep14, there is a huge $182.8m balance (down from $189.9m as at 31Dec13) under Intangible Assets in the B/S. A closer examination of the FY13 AR (p115) reveals that there was a huge $172.2m increase in this balance related to the acquisition of a subsidiary (TWG Tea Company P/L, when Osim raised its stake from 35% to 53.7% in FY13) and comprised Franchise and development rights ($14.28m), brand & trademarks ($68.818m) and customer relationships ($89.061m). A further closer look into Osim's P&L indicates that as much as $42.055m of this increase was also captured as Other Income in FY13 (detailed in p133, with further explanation under Notes 11c and 12c). Discounting this, Osim's FY13 PBT would have been only $87.1m (vs. $129.2m as reported). Are these intangible assets related to TWG real, properly valued and recorded?

(2) Why did Osim choose to refinance its previous $120.0m CB issue (redeemed in Jul14) with a new and bigger $170.0m CB which closed in Sep14, even when the group had accumulated over $250.0m in cash as at 31Dec14 ready for the CB redemption?

(3) Osim chose to walk away from its 55.56%-owned U.S. subsidiary Brookstone - recorded as a j-v in Osim's B/S by virtue of a certain partnership agreement - which in Apr14 filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. and since has been acquired by a Chinese consortium in Jun14…..
http://online.wsj.com/articles/brookston...1402081967
The funny thing is that Osim didn't even say much about these events.

I suppose it is quite understandable that some big shareholders of Osim, after noted any the above, had decided to sell their shares as early as 27Aug, and this and other sellers who followed in Oct/Nov14 have turned the tide of this stock..
http://infopub.sgx.com/Apps?A=COW_CorpAn...GCQDqCwrqB

Daily share buyback: 1.2M shares at $1.797.

Sent from my D5503 using Tapatalk
(10-11-2014, 06:15 PM)thor666 Wrote: [ -> ]http://infopub.sgx.com/Apps?A=COW_CorpAn...GCQDqCwrqB

Daily share buyback: 1.2M shares at $1.797.

Sent from my D5503 using Tapatalk

That is a cool $2.17m spent in just one day to buy back its own shares! What would have happened to the share price if the company didn't do share buy back, or bought back fewer shares? Isn't Ron Sim using the company's cash resources (including the $170.0m raised from the recent CB issue) to try to support the share price of Osim - a company he had a total (direct + deemed) 70.73% interest as at 3Mar14 (per the latest FY13 AR)?

The average price paid today of $1.797/share for the buyback is equivalent to approx. 3.3x the latest (30Sep14) NAV/share of $0.55. Considering Osim's latest equity position is supported by $182.8m (or approx. 38%) in Intangible Assets, I suppose the current active share buyback spree does not look like a bottom-fishing or value-driven operation.
(10-11-2014, 07:16 PM)dydx Wrote: [ -> ]
(10-11-2014, 06:15 PM)thor666 Wrote: [ -> ]http://infopub.sgx.com/Apps?A=COW_CorpAn...GCQDqCwrqB

Daily share buyback: 1.2M shares at $1.797.

Sent from my D5503 using Tapatalk

That is a cool $2.17m spent in just one day to buy back its own shares! What would have happened to the share price if the company didn't do share buy back, or bought back fewer shares? Isn't Ron Sim using the company's cash resources (including the $170.0m raised from the recent CB issue) to try to support the share price of Osim - a company he had a total (direct + deemed) 70.73% interest as at 3Mar14 (per the latest FY13 AR)?

The average price paid today of $1.797/share for the buyback is equivalent to approx. 3.3x the latest (30Sep14) NAV/share of $0.55. Considering Osim's latest equity position is supported by $182.8m (or approx. 38%) in Intangible Assets, I suppose the current active share buyback spree does not look like a bottom-fishing or value-driven operation.

O SIM... looks like better O Siam...

Very good analysis on your part... frankly if Osim is confident, he should be buying back Osim shares on market instead of using company's $ to do share buyback... The confidence level is different...

Odd Lots Vested
Uinfinity Fully Vested
GG
OSIM International Ltd - Why build a war chest when there is no acquisition forthcoming?
Investor Central
By Kiran Rameshchandra | Investor Central – Fri, Oct 24, 2014 4:00 PM SGT
Why build a war chest when there is no acquisition forthcoming?


24/10/2014 – OSIM International Ltd had no explanation for 9.8% decline in share price between October 7 and October 8, when it was queried by the surveillance department of the Singapore Exchange.

It clarified that there are currently no ongoing discussions regarding any joint ventures, mergers, acquisitions or purchases or sales of any significant assets.

Its trading volume jumped from 1.9 mln on October 3 to 3.2 mln on October 7 and 8.4 mln on October 8.

On September 18, OSIM completed the proposed issue of S$170 mln zero-coupon unsecured convertible bonds due on September 18, 2019.

The bonds have an initial conversion price of S$3.525 per new share, which represents a 25% premium over its closing price of S$2.82 prior to the announcement.

However, since then its share price has fallen about 17% to S$2.36 because it didn’t say where it was going to invest one-third of the proceeds, earmarked for acquisitions.

It announces earnings on October 28.

CIMB Research has maintained an ADD rating with target price lowered to S$4.29 to factor in dilution from convertible bonds.

It believes OSIM’s current valuation of 15 times price-to-earnings multiple of calendar year 2015 is not stretched compared to other brand owners.

Maybank Research continues to forecast average 19% earnings growth for FY14 to FY16.

Hence, it maintained BUY rating with a target price of S$3.50.

The analyst says sales growth in Q3 FY14 has been steady while its new sofa chair, uDiva, is being progressively rolled out in China, to steady sales.

TWG is focusing on North Asian expansion, now that OSIM owns 88% of TWG North Asia, its JV with TWG.

There will be greater international expansion of its franchise business for chairs and TWG Tea in H2 FY14 and FY15.

Investor Central. We keep your investments honest.

Question 1. Why build a war chest when there is no acquisition forthcoming?

OSIM has a strong financial position, with a net cash balance of S$238.5 mln as at June 2014.

It will use 35% of the net proceeds to enhance its well-being and lifestyle business in Asia and beyond, 35% to finance acquisitions and 30% for working capital purposes.

Maybank Research says OSIM may not have a specific target for acquisitions but it is very clear what kind of companies it wants to buy.

They must be positioned at the mid-to-upper end of the well-being and lifestyle market, have a promising brand, can be scaled up rapidly, and is already in China or heading there.

Question 2. Which companies is OSIM eyeing?

According to CIMB Research, OSIM highlighted that its two closest competitors have recently been sold, suggesting that their previous owners found it difficult to compete with OSIM.

Last year in September 2013, Ogawa was sold to Xiamen Comfort Science & Technology Group Co.

Ogawa’s last full-year profit was RM14.4 mln in FY13.

This year, OTO’s major shareholder also disposed of its shares to new shareholders.

OTO’s last full-year profit was HK$8.7 mln.

(Read the full story to get all 5 questions)

We have invited the company to an on-camera interview, and/or to reply to our questions in writing.

At the time of publication we have not received a reply (which is why you are seeing this message).

We will update this report if we do.
(10-11-2014, 08:13 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: [ -> ]
(10-11-2014, 07:16 PM)dydx Wrote: [ -> ]
(10-11-2014, 06:15 PM)thor666 Wrote: [ -> ]http://infopub.sgx.com/Apps?A=COW_CorpAn...GCQDqCwrqB

Daily share buyback: 1.2M shares at $1.797.

Sent from my D5503 using Tapatalk

That is a cool $2.17m spent in just one day to buy back its own shares! What would have happened to the share price if the company didn't do share buy back, or bought back fewer shares? Isn't Ron Sim using the company's cash resources (including the $170.0m raised from the recent CB issue) to try to support the share price of Osim - a company he had a total (direct + deemed) 70.73% interest as at 3Mar14 (per the latest FY13 AR)?

The average price paid today of $1.797/share for the buyback is equivalent to approx. 3.3x the latest (30Sep14) NAV/share of $0.55. Considering Osim's latest equity position is supported by $182.8m (or approx. 38%) in Intangible Assets, I suppose the current active share buyback spree does not look like a bottom-fishing or value-driven operation.

O SIM... looks like better O Siam...

Very good analysis on your part... frankly if Osim is confident, he should be buying back Osim shares on market instead of using company's $ to do share buyback... The confidence level is different...

Odd Lots Vested
Uinfinity Fully Vested
GG
I have 2 points. Not necessarily true but for a different perspective:
1. Ron Sim may be personally financiallystretched by his own commitment to Perennial (Osim is not involved as of the last news)
2. Ron Sim would not sell Osim on the cheap. I do not think he has given any indication that he wants to cash out. Forummers may be right, the 3 pillars of Osim business may be much harder to grow than on paper.
3. I don't see any issue with Osim building a warchest. Apple does it, and I think it is astute to be relatively cash rich to redeploy as necessary.

Sent from my D5503 using Tapatalk
actually, they issued S$170 mln zero-coupon unsecured convertible bonds due 2019 with a conversion price of SGD3.525. Now, the stock price has fallen to SGD 1.80, and they are doing share buybacks.

Didnt they just made a bargain???? If marked to market, the bonds would be worth lower, meaning 'gains on the debt'..
seen another way, isnt it like selling shares at SGD 3.525 and buying back at SGD 1.80 using interest free debt borrowings.
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