16-08-2015, 05:54 PM
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16-08-2015, 06:00 PM
Bad news to those who are still holding this stock .
16-08-2015, 06:53 PM
Institutions are probably out. Its the retail - mentality seldom change... cheap will average down until bullets run dry... 
(16-08-2015, 06:00 PM)cfa Wrote: [ -> ]Bad news to those who are still holding this stock .
17-08-2015, 08:05 AM
The bluest of the blue oso singing Blues... can conveniently set Noble aside...
Glencore profits to dive as commodity price rout hits
DANNY FORTSON THE TIMES AUGUST 17, 2015 12:00AM
Glencore is set to reveal a calamitous plunge in profits as the world’s largest commodity trader comes under unprecedented pressure from the price rout in raw materials.
Shares in the company plunged 15 per cent to a record low last week after chief executive Ivan Glasenberg revealed asset sales and $US800m ($1.08bn) of fresh spending cuts in a desperate effort to protect the balance sheet. The stock closed on Friday at 172p, capping a 42 per cent drop since the start of the year — making it the worst performer in the FTSE 100 index of top public companies.
The fall highlights the stark loss of investor confidence in the £22.8bn ($48.3bn) company, which has had a devoted following since pulling off the biggest ever float on the London market in 2011. Its shares are worth just a third of the 530p float price.
Meanwhile, one of the US’s most influential activist investors has secretly amassed a stake in Glencore. The Daily Telegraph in London reported Harris Associates has built a £250m position in a move likely to pile further pressure on Mr Glasenberg.
The newspaper reported David Herro, the investment chief at the Chigaco-based fund with $US135bn under management, had an impressive track record against ambitious bosses, and could prove a formidable taskmaster for the combative Mr Glasenberg as he formulates a plan to turn around Glencore’s declining fortunes.
Glencore has been hit hard by the slide in prices of its main products — copper, coal and oil. Ill-timed acquisitions and a $US30bn net debt load have also unnerved investors.
On Wednesday, Glasenberg will disclose the financial results for the first half of the year. Analysts expect the company to reveal net income of $US780m, down nearly two-thirds on the $US2bn it made in the same period last year.
The City will be most interested, however, in the performance of the trading arm, which last year brought in 42 per cent of net earnings. Glencore differs from other big miners because it also has a trading operation, which buys and sells everything from wheat to zinc as well as oil and takes a cut from each deal. The division is able to make money regardless of price swings.
Yet the City is betting on a serious stumble, which could undermine the theory that Glencore is more insulated from commodity price falls than its rivals. Glasenberg had promised that trading would generate at least $US2.7bn of earnings for the year, before expenses.
Analysts, however, expect it to have brought in just $US1.1bn during the first six months, putting it on track to fall well short of the chief’s prediction.
Glencore is the world’s biggest supplier of seaborne thermal coal, which has been hit by a price drop of nearly 50 per cent since 2012. Copper, which last year accounted for a third of the company’s earnings, has fallen 20 per cent this year and the price of crude oil has halved since last summer.
At the same time, the economy of China, Glencore’s biggest customer, appears to be slowing more rapidly than expected.
Dominic O’Kane, an analyst at the investment bank JPMorgan Cazenove, said that without a commodities rally Glencore would lose money in 2017.
He suggested that Glasenberg could slash the company’s $US2.4bn annual dividend to protect its credit rating, which is vital to the debt-dependent trading arm.
The Sunday Times
Glencore profits to dive as commodity price rout hits
DANNY FORTSON THE TIMES AUGUST 17, 2015 12:00AM
Glencore is set to reveal a calamitous plunge in profits as the world’s largest commodity trader comes under unprecedented pressure from the price rout in raw materials.
Shares in the company plunged 15 per cent to a record low last week after chief executive Ivan Glasenberg revealed asset sales and $US800m ($1.08bn) of fresh spending cuts in a desperate effort to protect the balance sheet. The stock closed on Friday at 172p, capping a 42 per cent drop since the start of the year — making it the worst performer in the FTSE 100 index of top public companies.
The fall highlights the stark loss of investor confidence in the £22.8bn ($48.3bn) company, which has had a devoted following since pulling off the biggest ever float on the London market in 2011. Its shares are worth just a third of the 530p float price.
Meanwhile, one of the US’s most influential activist investors has secretly amassed a stake in Glencore. The Daily Telegraph in London reported Harris Associates has built a £250m position in a move likely to pile further pressure on Mr Glasenberg.
The newspaper reported David Herro, the investment chief at the Chigaco-based fund with $US135bn under management, had an impressive track record against ambitious bosses, and could prove a formidable taskmaster for the combative Mr Glasenberg as he formulates a plan to turn around Glencore’s declining fortunes.
Glencore has been hit hard by the slide in prices of its main products — copper, coal and oil. Ill-timed acquisitions and a $US30bn net debt load have also unnerved investors.
On Wednesday, Glasenberg will disclose the financial results for the first half of the year. Analysts expect the company to reveal net income of $US780m, down nearly two-thirds on the $US2bn it made in the same period last year.
The City will be most interested, however, in the performance of the trading arm, which last year brought in 42 per cent of net earnings. Glencore differs from other big miners because it also has a trading operation, which buys and sells everything from wheat to zinc as well as oil and takes a cut from each deal. The division is able to make money regardless of price swings.
Yet the City is betting on a serious stumble, which could undermine the theory that Glencore is more insulated from commodity price falls than its rivals. Glasenberg had promised that trading would generate at least $US2.7bn of earnings for the year, before expenses.
Analysts, however, expect it to have brought in just $US1.1bn during the first six months, putting it on track to fall well short of the chief’s prediction.
Glencore is the world’s biggest supplier of seaborne thermal coal, which has been hit by a price drop of nearly 50 per cent since 2012. Copper, which last year accounted for a third of the company’s earnings, has fallen 20 per cent this year and the price of crude oil has halved since last summer.
At the same time, the economy of China, Glencore’s biggest customer, appears to be slowing more rapidly than expected.
Dominic O’Kane, an analyst at the investment bank JPMorgan Cazenove, said that without a commodities rally Glencore would lose money in 2017.
He suggested that Glasenberg could slash the company’s $US2.4bn annual dividend to protect its credit rating, which is vital to the debt-dependent trading arm.
The Sunday Times
17-08-2015, 09:37 AM
Latest update:
Phillips CFD margin requirements on Noble raised from:
Kindly be informed that CFD Department will be increasing the margin requirements for Noble group from 15% to 20% with effect from 13th Aug 2015 after the market closes.
Please ensure that your account has sufficient funds to cater for the increase in margin requirement.
Should you have any queries, feel free to call Phillip CFD at 6336 4564.
Understand that OCBC also tightening on Noble... updates to follow...
Phillips CFD margin requirements on Noble raised from:
Kindly be informed that CFD Department will be increasing the margin requirements for Noble group from 15% to 20% with effect from 13th Aug 2015 after the market closes.
Please ensure that your account has sufficient funds to cater for the increase in margin requirement.
Should you have any queries, feel free to call Phillip CFD at 6336 4564.
Understand that OCBC also tightening on Noble... updates to follow...
(14-08-2015, 09:05 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: [ -> ]Phillips Securities announced trading restrictions after mkt close today...
Can we expect more broking houses to impose similar restrictions just like bankers withdrawing umbrella when the sky opens up?
17-08-2015, 09:39 AM
Investor confidence is eroding fast, and faster over time...
(not vested)
(not vested)
(17-08-2015, 09:37 AM)greengiraffe Wrote: [ -> ]Latest update:
Phillips CFD margin requirements on Noble raised from 10 to 15%.
Understand that OCBC also tightening on Noble... updates to follow...
(14-08-2015, 09:05 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: [ -> ]Phillips Securities announced trading restrictions after mkt close today...
Can we expect more broking houses to impose similar restrictions just like bankers withdrawing umbrella when the sky opens up?
17-08-2015, 09:55 AM
Wonder what are the thoughts of people who still chooses to buy this company when odds are stacked against them...
17-08-2015, 10:13 AM
OCBC Sec:
Revision in SCL, PCF & TIER
The Margin Valuation Report (NVRPT21) for positions as at 14 August 2015 are processed using the revised parameters for the above counter.
- Clients affected by the SCL change will be granted grace period ending 28 August 2015 to comply with the requirement.
- Margin calls will be issued using the revised SCL on 29 August 2015.
- If during the grace period, the marked to market valuation (full valuation) for the above counter falls below the maintenance margin %, your client will still need to fulfill margin call obligation.
If you need any further clarification, please contact Margin hotline at ext 185.
For your easy reference, the SCL and PCF values for each marginable counter are available anytime in the in-house database. The information will automatically be refreshed every morning:-
Marginable Counter (Margin) V2 - Notes Link <== Click here to view the latest database
________________________________________
Revision in SCL, PCF & TIER
The Margin Valuation Report (NVRPT21) for positions as at 14 August 2015 are processed using the revised parameters for the above counter.
- Clients affected by the SCL change will be granted grace period ending 28 August 2015 to comply with the requirement.
- Margin calls will be issued using the revised SCL on 29 August 2015.
- If during the grace period, the marked to market valuation (full valuation) for the above counter falls below the maintenance margin %, your client will still need to fulfill margin call obligation.
If you need any further clarification, please contact Margin hotline at ext 185.
For your easy reference, the SCL and PCF values for each marginable counter are available anytime in the in-house database. The information will automatically be refreshed every morning:-
Marginable Counter (Margin) V2 - Notes Link <== Click here to view the latest database
________________________________________
(17-08-2015, 09:37 AM)greengiraffe Wrote: [ -> ]Latest update:
Phillips CFD margin requirements on Noble raised from:
Kindly be informed that CFD Department will be increasing the margin requirements for Noble group from 15% to 20% with effect from 13th Aug 2015 after the market closes.
Please ensure that your account has sufficient funds to cater for the increase in margin requirement.
Should you have any queries, feel free to call Phillip CFD at 6336 4564.
Understand that OCBC also tightening on Noble... updates to follow...
(14-08-2015, 09:05 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: [ -> ]Phillips Securities announced trading restrictions after mkt close today...
Can we expect more broking houses to impose similar restrictions just like bankers withdrawing umbrella when the sky opens up?
17-08-2015, 10:36 AM
Individuals (traders) who attempt to long Noble may not be in the right frame of mind. Given its poor cash flow generation ability, Noble is not a good buy.
In addition, I will like to highlight that Noble has about 400m of perpetual securities. Due to the classification of this instrument as equity, Noble's debt has been underestimated. With the loss of investor confidence in Noble and an impending 1.19 Bil USD of senior notes due over the next 1 year. It will be interesting to observe how Noble will rollover the debt. I am pretty sure Noble will not be able to get the 3.3-4% favorable interest rates. The senior notes it may raise in the future will be closer to its perpetual securities rate of 6.0% or higher. In its recent quarter reports, it is observed that Noble's short term bank debts have increased by USD1.7 billion. Noble's financial health is now greatly dependent on the bank's decision to rollover the debts continuously. Should this consortium of banks decide not to trust Noble's number and pull out this lifeline, Noble is screwed
Fundamentally, Noble may be profitable but its cash flow problems may cripple it. As the saying goes, when times are bad, banks will take the umbrella from you. This is what is happening now among brokerages.
It is likely in the end, Noble will be removed from the STI index, inducing the last few waves of selling from ETF and fund managers
In addition, I will like to highlight that Noble has about 400m of perpetual securities. Due to the classification of this instrument as equity, Noble's debt has been underestimated. With the loss of investor confidence in Noble and an impending 1.19 Bil USD of senior notes due over the next 1 year. It will be interesting to observe how Noble will rollover the debt. I am pretty sure Noble will not be able to get the 3.3-4% favorable interest rates. The senior notes it may raise in the future will be closer to its perpetual securities rate of 6.0% or higher. In its recent quarter reports, it is observed that Noble's short term bank debts have increased by USD1.7 billion. Noble's financial health is now greatly dependent on the bank's decision to rollover the debts continuously. Should this consortium of banks decide not to trust Noble's number and pull out this lifeline, Noble is screwed
Fundamentally, Noble may be profitable but its cash flow problems may cripple it. As the saying goes, when times are bad, banks will take the umbrella from you. This is what is happening now among brokerages.
It is likely in the end, Noble will be removed from the STI index, inducing the last few waves of selling from ETF and fund managers
17-08-2015, 11:36 AM
(17-08-2015, 10:36 AM)CY09 Wrote: [ -> ]Individuals (traders) who attempt to long Noble may not be in the right frame of mind. Given its poor cash flow generation ability, Noble is not a good buy.
In addition, I will like to highlight that Noble has about 400m of perpetual securities. Due to the classification of this instrument as equity, Noble's debt has been underestimated. With the loss of investor confidence in Noble and an impending 1.19 Bil USD of senior notes due over the next 1 year. It will be interesting to observe how Noble will rollover the debt. I am pretty sure Noble will not be able to get the 3.3-4% favorable interest rates. The senior notes it may raise in the future will be closer to its perpetual securities rate of 6.0% or higher. In its recent quarter reports, it is observed that Noble's short term bank debts have increased by USD1.7 billion. Noble's financial health is now greatly dependent on the bank's decision to rollover the debts continuously. Should this consortium of banks decide not to trust Noble's number and pull out this lifeline, Noble is screwed
Fundamentally, Noble may be profitable but its cash flow problems may cripple it. As the saying goes, when times are bad, banks will take the umbrella from you. This is what is happening now among brokerages.
It is likely in the end, Noble will be removed from the STI index, inducing the last few waves of selling from ETF and fund managers
you might just be right. If there is more short-term profit to be made via asset sales, it will make more sense for banks to reevaluate noble and withdraw funding and they will get an insolvent company with assets which they can cash in.
Looks like with the negative sentiment today over Japan contraction, Noble looks like gonna back down below 40c. The big fund guys should have had their chance and exited the stock during the last push up.