Market fully factor in this piece of news ?
(07-02-2014, 12:12 PM)Stocker Wrote: [ -> ]Market fully factor in this piece of news ?
Most likely due to the negative sentiment against SG Real Estate and REITs.
Also probably because FNN shareholders would have benefited from a price discrepancy (arbitrage) through selling both FNN and FCL as the individual share prices (FNN + FCL) > FNN pre-FCL.
Market has yet to factor the share swop between TCC and Thai Bev and possibly more analysts coverage after the results announcement next Wed pre-open.
Took my first position today, seemed value for money .
(07-02-2014, 07:23 PM)Stocker Wrote: [ -> ]Took my first position today, seemed value for money .
Anybody has any views on the TCC-Thai Bev Share Swap (FNN/FCL)?
Which option might be the most feasible one:
- swap at VWAP since 09 Jan 2014 (1st day of FCL trading) [most likely in my opinion]
- swap at 1.0x P/B of FCL (S$2.12) [one can only dream...]
- swap at discount to VWAP or steep discount to P/B of FCL [minority shareholders will vehemently oppose this move]
When will the share swap take place ?
It will not affect the intrinsic value of CPL.
Share price didn't go below 1.40 recently , so this should be a good level to enter , IMO.
(07-02-2014, 11:18 PM)Stocker Wrote: [ -> ]When will the share swap take place ?
It will not affect the intrinsic value of CPL.
Share price didn't go below 1.40 recently , so this should be a good level to enter , IMO.
No exact timeline...I would guess they have:
- to announce something next wed
- subsequently appoint an IFA to look into the matter
- issue a circular and
- hold an EGM for the minority shareholders to vote on the Share Swop
I think FCL is a bit too "big" now
My feel is that the thais will get rid of some assets first
the recent IPO spin out is one of such moves
The second step could be paying out of the cash to the indebt parents (since they still own over 85% of FCL, FNN also paid a lot of cash to parents)
3rd step, pumping up the free float to say 20-30% via placement or selling of stakes (they need to restore the float because they want to tap the market in the future for $$ to grow the company)
then when the dust is cleared then finally they do the swap for FNN shares (may take 1-2 years?)
above analysis just my own guessing, I may be very wrong ^^
What if the Thais place out some shares at a discount ? Share price will just head south.
at the current levels dun think they will do placement for FCL, confirm not worth it
however FCL owns stakes on in Fcomm and FCT which they can easily cash out first
these 2 reits are still having decent valuations
FCL also have 3 bil of earnings not recognized yet
ideally they wanna post good earnings and dividends then do placements ma
Anyway FCL is trading at 40% discount to book value
by buying FCL now, u are betting that the bookvalue will be realised
I think it is possible, considering that the parent is heavily in debt and has many incentives to either pay out cash from FCL or
make the stock trade closer to book value ( if FCL can trade at $2.00 I'm pretty sure the parents wouldn't mind placing out shares at $1.80?)
Tried to find out the Thais' cost of FCL but to no avail. If their cost is lower than 1.42 , it is still possible to place out some shares at a discount.