(18-08-2014, 10:00 AM)Contrarian Wrote: [ -> ]Some price weakness.
I wonder if it is due to market pp guessing of cash call. Anyone heard anything?
Or just pure trader behaviour?
For a company with just 10-12% retail float, the liquidity is remarkable.
Cash call as in issue rights?
I doubt so, else it will be chaoren himself pumping in most of the money.
FCL, clsa maintain BUY:
One step closer
FCL reported a good set of results with overseas projects driving earnings
growth demonstrating that its diversification efforts are bearing fruits.
This could change more dramatically if the acquisition of AustraLand is
successful. We believe FCL will be able to privatize ALZ given its current
56.8% acceptances received with an extended 21 Aug deadline. With
core operations performing well and a depleting residential landbank
insulating earning risks, we view FCL’s 48% disc to RNAV as
undemanding. Reiterate BUY with target price of S$2.20.
Strong results from overseas recognition
3QFY14 revenue of S$575m grew 41% YoY on the back of strong revenue
recognition of overseas residential projects in China and UK. As a result,
9MFY14 revenue of S$1,708m (+58% YoY) is now 91% of our FY14 forecasts.
3QFY14 PBIT margins inched up to 28% (25%) on higher recognition of
overseas development projects which fetched better margins relative to
Singapore development portfolio. Excluding fair value gains and exceptionals,
3QFY14 Core PATMI of S$120m was up 77% YoY while 9MFY14 Core PATMI
grew 62% YoY arriving at 89% with our FY14 core PATMI forecasts.
AustraLand likely to be in the bag
FCL has obtained 56.8% acceptances from AustraLand shareholders and has
extended the A$4.48 cash offer in accordance with the Corporations ACT to
21st Aug 2014 – we understand that this could be further extended. If FCL
obtains more than 90% acceptances, it can seek a compulsory delisting of
AustraLand. If the acceptances fall between 75% to 90%, FCL can still initiate
a delisting process immediately (which will typically take 2mths) contingent
on a simple majority vote of 50% where FCL is allowed to vote. However, if
the acceptances range between 50% and 75%, FCL can only initiate a similar
delisting process after 12mths from the close of offer (currently 21 Aug).
Operations performing well
While Singapore residential sales are slow, we note that FCL has a low
landbank with overseas sales driving earnings growth. More importantly, FCL
also expects the policy relaxation to eventually filter to their China projects
driving demand. Commercial portfolio remains robust.
Valuations still attractive
Reiterate BUY with target price of S$2.20. We believe FCL has plans to further
unlock AustraLand’s portfolio if the acquisition is successful. With core
operations performing well and a depleting residential landbank insulating
earning risks, we view FCL’s 48% disc to RNAV as undemanding.
(18-08-2014, 12:07 PM)oilngas Wrote: [ -> ] (18-08-2014, 10:00 AM)Contrarian Wrote: [ -> ]Some price weakness.
I wonder if it is due to market pp guessing of cash call. Anyone heard anything?
Or just pure trader behaviour?
For a company with just 10-12% retail float, the liquidity is remarkable.
Cash call as in issue rights?
I doubt so, else it will be chaoren himself pumping in most of the money.
Backlog of profit is about S$1.9bn
Frasers hotel trust S$0.37bn
The acquisition costs A$2.6bn or S$3bn
So this $2.3bn will up their debt by $0.7bn...
I wonder how much of the existing development property portfolio they can recognise.
Based on the lastest ALZ filings...
FCL now has 89% of ALZ... delisting is a foregone conclusion
Beer kicked off $2.6b Australand bid
Matthew Cranston
814 words
23 Aug 2014
The Australian Financial Review
AFNR
English
Copyright 2014. Fairfax Media Management Pty Limited.
Inside the deal How Singapore's Frasers pipped Stockland with a project named Alpha.
Deutsche Bank's head of mergers and acquisitions Mike Roche would hardly have anticipated flash mobs, armoured vehicles and riot shields when he pitched the merits of the third-largest Australian real estate acquisition of the past decade.
It was May. Bangkok was in the middle of a frightening military coup and Singapore-based Frasers Centrepoint, backed by Thai brewing billionaire Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi, was considering the merits of a counter-offer to Stockland's $2.5 billion scrip bid for Australand Property Group.
From the safety of the billionaire's Bangkok home, Australand chief executive Bob Johnston had not faced the same security concerns.
Earlier that year, Johnston had been invited by an old friend from Lend Lease, Eng-Peng Ooi, to join the brewer and his wife for dinner in Bangkok.
Johnston sipped a Chang beer, which Charoen had encouraged him to choose from his own brewery selection. Through an interpreter, they discussed Australand's culture. Later, Johnston toured some of Frasers' developments.
The meeting was important as Frasers was still circumspect about launching its own bid, given Stockland already controlled a 19.9 per cent stake in Australand .
It also proved influential in Frasers' decision to launch a bid and activate what was secretly referred to as Project Alpha ("A" being for Australand).
After his first bid was promptly rejected, Stockland, advised by Citigroup, Merrill Lynch and UBS, announced a few weeks later, on May 28, its second and final proposal for Australand.
There was a strong feeling that Stockland was the only player left in town.
Few knew about Frasers' interest.Perfect match
Stockland's chief executive Mark Steinert heralded the takeover bid as the perfect match-up. Stockland needed apartment projects and bringing the companies together would create an almighty residential force in Australia.
Analysts such as Credit Suisse estimated big cost savings through synergies in management.
Stockland's bid would also be earnings accretive – the old-school way of measuring the merits of M&A. But it also looked value-destructive because it was offering so much of its own shares to buy Australand. Shareholders such as AMP, which had major stakes in both companies, had a dilemma.
Analysing all this from the sidelines was Deutsche Bank's wily Mike Roche and his calm head of real estate, Hugh MacDonald. They were not frightened off by Stockland's stake and its bids. They were well aware of Stockland's previous gamble with FKP Property Group which did not turn out well.
They saw Stockland's scrip bid as getting Australand on the cheap. Stockland's share price was trading at discount to net asset value. The pair convinced Frasers it was time to make a move – with cash.
In Singapore, Standard Chartered head of Asian real estate Russell Cowley and Mark Ebbinghaus were sitting tight. They had advised a takeover of recent M&A activity for Frasers and organised bridging finance for it to make a tilt at Australand.
On Friday May 30, Stockland announced it had struck a deal with Australand to gain due diligence but, critically, that agreement still needed to be formalised in writing by Stockland.
Johnston flew to Singapore that Friday evening to meet the billionaire's son, Panote Sirivadhanabhakdi, Chotiphat Bijananda, a non-executive director of Frasers, and chief executive Lim Ee Seng. Johnston was advised by Fort Street's Richard Hunt and Macquarie Capital's Chris Green. On Tuesday, Lim Se Sing flew back to Sydney to discuss a $2.6 billion, all-cash bid implementation agreement.
Australand's lawyer, King & Wood Mallesons' Brian Murphy, and Frasers' lawyers, Stuart McCulloch and Tom Story of Allens, scrambled to draft the agreement. The agreement would include exclusive due diligence for Frasers, knocking out Stockland.
By 8pm on Tuesday night, the agreement had been signed.Frasers takes the spoils
Still unaware of Frasers' involvement, Stockland's formalised agreement came through a few hours later. But it was too late.
From then on, the challenge was for Frasers to gain more than 50 per cent shareholder acceptances for its offer and convince shareholders not to take Stockland's scrip.
More than 70 per cent of Australand's share register turns over mostly by hedge funds, so it was anyone's guess.
Deutsche Bank, who had advised DEXUS Property Group on its takeover of Commonwealth Property Office Fund last year, was confident they could read the poker faces.
Most hedge funds see cash as being certain and measurable, and scrip as variable, so they sold out. The lure for Mark Steinert of an $80 million profit on his 19.9 per cent stake was also too much.
Late on Friday August 15, Stockland accepted, leaving Frasers to the spoils.
Fairfax Media Management Pty Limited
Document AFNR000020140822ea8n00017
Charoen is rumoured to be after UE.
IMHO, FCL is unlikely to be involved. FCL will have ALZ sitting on its books for value extractions. TCC Assets is likely to be the main vehicle bidding for UE's property assets ex the ongoing sale of non core assets.
I highly doubt that TCC would be involved in the ridding of UE's noncore assets but would pay a reasonable price for it quality real estate portfolio. In this aspect, UE E&C will be integral to the acquisition as it will serve as an value-added in house builder.
As we have seen in FHT, FCL stands to benefit as Towkay's future plans to recycle capital and unlock values from matured assets in due course.
With a growing pipeline of assets, FCL will likely benefit from acquisition fees and recurrent asset management fees should its comprehensive suite of REITs acquire assets from within FCL and from Towkay's private vehicle. Such moves will place FCL ahead of the rest of the competition such as Capland, Kep Land as their pipeline in sought after and well regulated capital cities dwindles following exhaustive injections into their REITs in recent years and lack of replenishment.
GG
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/announce...eID=312475
News on Charoen's move is out... TCC Assets involved and hence still based on my speculated script...
FCL will be the Capland replay with its clean developer/incubator/comprehensive suites of asset management and asset light Reits conduits.
FCL remains a big work in progress.
After retracing 50% from 140 to 200,at 170, it represents a good entry level for those who firmly believe in Godfather Charoen.
Vested
GG
(25-08-2014, 10:05 AM)greengiraffe Wrote: [ -> ]Charoen is rumoured to be after UE.
IMHO, FCL is unlikely to be involved. FCL will have ALZ sitting on its books for value extractions. TCC Assets is likely to be the main vehicle bidding for UE's property assets ex the ongoing sale of non core assets.
I highly doubt that TCC would be involved in the ridding of UE's noncore assets but would pay a reasonable price for it quality real estate portfolio. In this aspect, UE E&C will be integral to the acquisition as it will serve as an value-added in house builder.
As we have seen in FHT, FCL stands to benefit as Towkay's future plans to recycle capital and unlock values from matured assets in due course.
With a growing pipeline of assets, FCL will likely benefit from acquisition fees and recurrent asset management fees should its comprehensive suite of REITs acquire assets from within FCL and from Towkay's private vehicle. Such moves will place FCL ahead of the rest of the competition such as Capland, Kep Land as their pipeline in sought after and well regulated capital cities dwindles following exhaustive injections into their REITs in recent years and lack of replenishment.
GG
FCL ATM is up and running. Buy and dump assets into REITS.
Towkay has been writing blank cheques...
Extracted From F&N Offer Documents
The Offeror =TCC Assets
The Offeror is a special purpose vehicle incorporated in the British Virgin Islands on 23 August 2006.
As at the Latest Practicable Date, the Offeror has an issued and paid-up share capital of US$50,000 comprising an aggregate of 50,000 shares. The shareholders of the Offeror are Mr. Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi and Khunying Wanna Sirivadhanabhakdi, who each owns 50% of the issued and paid-up share capital of the Offeror. The directors of the Offeror are Mr. Chow Kam Kun, Ms. Man Kit Yee, Mr. Surapong Pornsirikul, and Mr. Chotiphat Bijananda.
So far all banks have been very supportive, ie everyone very convinced and confident that Towkay's credit is top rated... including the latest potential bid for UE by TCC Assets...
Reuters Insider - Breakingviews: Investors tire of Thai tycoon purchases (2014/08/27 15:56PM)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Click the following link to watch video:
http://insider.thomsonreuters.com/link.h...eutersNews
Source: Thomson Reuters
Description: The fresh flurry of deal making by Thaiha Tycoon
Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi, best known for Thai
Beverages, may lead to investor fatigue, says
Breakingviews'' Peter Thal Larsen.
(To access all llexclusive Reuters Insider programming visit:
http://insider.thomsonreuters.com)
Short Link:
http://reut.rs/1luWqMA
I wonder what FCL will do with the industrial properties from Australand acquisition.
Will they create a industrial reit or will they sell to UE / Boustead...