Hi,
Back with another post on the comparison of Fraser Cpt with 7 other developers. This time I even compare with Wheelock and Amara.
Hm... this post is not to justify who's right and who's wrong, rather for discussion as the previous view has all be quite insightful for me.
http://tubinvesting.blogspot.sg/2016/11/...-best.html
I did review on its latest financials, FCL did improve from the last quarter.
For the year moving forward, REITs will be affected (most probably) and their earnings may fall. This will definitely affect their repayment of debt.
Will keep an eye on the leverage and continues to hold on to it.
<vested>
(17-11-2016, 09:32 AM)TUBInvesting Wrote: [ -> ]Hi,
Back with another post on the comparison of Fraser Cpt with 7 other developers. This time I even compare with Wheelock and Amara.
Hm... this post is not to justify who's right and who's wrong, rather for discussion as the previous view has all be quite insightful for me.
http://tubinvesting.blogspot.sg/2016/11/...-best.html
I did review on its latest financials, FCL did improve from the last quarter.
For the year moving forward, REITs will be affected (most probably) and their earnings may fall. This will definitely affect their repayment of debt.
Will keep an eye on the leverage and continues to hold on to it.
<vested>
Interest rate hike not only REIT be affected. Property counter will also get it.
But the higher rate will have a lag period affecting the borrowing costs. Short term downside will be due to unwinding of carry trade in emerging markets.
Its possible FCL goes down to $1.20 in a few months time.
I guess we can always monitor another 1 or 2 quarters and decide what to do with it.
I believe it will continue to improve in the next quarter. The moment the leverage increases significantly, then maybe its time to move on.
(17-11-2016, 02:15 PM)Ok BlueKelah Wrote: [ -> ] (17-11-2016, 09:32 AM)TUBInvesting Wrote: [ -> ]Hi,
Back with another post on the comparison of Fraser Cpt with 7 other developers. This time I even compare with Wheelock and Amara.
Hm... this post is not to justify who's right and who's wrong, rather for discussion as the previous view has all be quite insightful for me.
http://tubinvesting.blogspot.sg/2016/11/...-best.html
I did review on its latest financials, FCL did improve from the last quarter.
For the year moving forward, REITs will be affected (most probably) and their earnings may fall. This will definitely affect their repayment of debt.
Will keep an eye on the leverage and continues to hold on to it.
<vested>
Interest rate hike not only REIT be affected. Property counter will also get it.
But the higher rate will have a lag period affecting the borrowing costs. Short term downside will be due to unwinding of carry trade in emerging markets.
Its possible FCL goes down to $1.20 in a few months time.
Yes I agree, cannot put wheelock together with fcl and oue(both are crippled with massive net debt). Wheelock is one of the few developers on sgx with 380mil in net cash, huge potential synergy with HPL, 76% owned by parent and trading at less than 0.6x books. Also the most consistent 6cts yoy payout stock. Its more of a net net stock worth categorising with maybe wing tai.
Reports from DBS/CIMB for reference.
(17-11-2016, 02:15 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: [ -> ] (17-11-2016, 09:32 AM)TUBInvesting Wrote: [ -> ]Hi,
Back with another post on the comparison of Fraser Cpt with 7 other developers. This time I even compare with Wheelock and Amara.
Hm... this post is not to justify who's right and who's wrong, rather for discussion as the previous view has all be quite insightful for me.
http://tubinvesting.blogspot.sg/2016/11/...-best.html
I did review on its latest financials, FCL did improve from the last quarter.
For the year moving forward, REITs will be affected (most probably) and their earnings may fall. This will definitely affect their repayment of debt.
Will keep an eye on the leverage and continues to hold on to it.
<vested>
Interest rate hike not only REIT be affected. Property counter will also get it.
But the higher rate will have a lag period affecting the borrowing costs. Short term downside will be due to unwinding of carry trade in emerging markets.
Its possible FCL goes down to $1.20 in a few months time.
(17-11-2016, 10:56 PM)Scg8866t Wrote: [ -> ] (17-11-2016, 02:15 PM)Ok BlueKelah Wrote: [ -> ] (17-11-2016, 09:32 AM)TUBInvesting Wrote: [ -> ]Hi,
Back with another post on the comparison of Fraser Cpt with 7 other developers. This time I even compare with Wheelock and Amara.
Hm... this post is not to justify who's right and who's wrong, rather for discussion as the previous view has all be quite insightful for me.
http://tubinvesting.blogspot.sg/2016/11/...-best.html
I did review on its latest financials, FCL did improve from the last quarter.
For the year moving forward, REITs will be affected (most probably) and their earnings may fall. This will definitely affect their repayment of debt.
Will keep an eye on the leverage and continues to hold on to it.
<vested>
Interest rate hike not only REIT be affected. Property counter will also get it.
But the higher rate will have a lag period affecting the borrowing costs. Short term downside will be due to unwinding of carry trade in emerging markets.
Its possible FCL goes down to $1.20 in a few months time.
Yes I agree, cannot put wheelock together with fcl and oue(both are crippled with massive net debt). Wheelock is one of the few developers on sgx with 380mil in net cash, huge potential synergy with HPL, 76% owned by parent and trading at less than 0.6x books. Also the most consistent 6cts yoy payout stock. Its more of a net net stock worth categorising with maybe wing tai.
I have to agree Wheelock looks quite good as of now. It seems to be one of the developer with in a net-net position. However, I will not be putting wingtai in the same category as the rest of the developers here - It does not really hold any investment properties and its retail business seems to be suffering.
Frasers is not comparable to Wheelock or Wing Tai. I would think the only reasonable comparison for FCL in SGX are Keppel Land and Capitaland. Outside Singapore, we have Land Lease over in ASX for comparison.
FCL unlike typical developers hold a significant portfolio of REITS etc. which makes comparison with Wing Tai and gang a little unfair.
(21-11-2016, 09:04 AM)TUBInvesting Wrote: [ -> ] (17-11-2016, 02:15 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: [ -> ] (17-11-2016, 09:32 AM)TUBInvesting Wrote: [ -> ]Hi,
Back with another post on the comparison of Fraser Cpt with 7 other developers. This time I even compare with Wheelock and Amara.
Hm... this post is not to justify who's right and who's wrong, rather for discussion as the previous view has all be quite insightful for me.
http://tubinvesting.blogspot.sg/2016/11/...-best.html
I did review on its latest financials, FCL did improve from the last quarter.
For the year moving forward, REITs will be affected (most probably) and their earnings may fall. This will definitely affect their repayment of debt.
Will keep an eye on the leverage and continues to hold on to it.
<vested>
Interest rate hike not only REIT be affected. Property counter will also get it.
But the higher rate will have a lag period affecting the borrowing costs. Short term downside will be due to unwinding of carry trade in emerging markets.
Its possible FCL goes down to $1.20 in a few months time.
(17-11-2016, 10:56 PM)Scg8866t Wrote: [ -> ] (17-11-2016, 02:15 PM)Ok BlueKelah Wrote: [ -> ] (17-11-2016, 09:32 AM)TUBInvesting Wrote: [ -> ]Hi,
Back with another post on the comparison of Fraser Cpt with 7 other developers. This time I even compare with Wheelock and Amara.
Hm... this post is not to justify who's right and who's wrong, rather for discussion as the previous view has all be quite insightful for me.
http://tubinvesting.blogspot.sg/2016/11/...-best.html
I did review on its latest financials, FCL did improve from the last quarter.
For the year moving forward, REITs will be affected (most probably) and their earnings may fall. This will definitely affect their repayment of debt.
Will keep an eye on the leverage and continues to hold on to it.
<vested>
Interest rate hike not only REIT be affected. Property counter will also get it.
But the higher rate will have a lag period affecting the borrowing costs. Short term downside will be due to unwinding of carry trade in emerging markets.
Its possible FCL goes down to $1.20 in a few months time.
Yes I agree, cannot put wheelock together with fcl and oue(both are crippled with massive net debt). Wheelock is one of the few developers on sgx with 380mil in net cash, huge potential synergy with HPL, 76% owned by parent and trading at less than 0.6x books. Also the most consistent 6cts yoy payout stock. Its more of a net net stock worth categorising with maybe wing tai.
I have to agree Wheelock looks quite good as of now. It seems to be one of the developer with in a net-net position. However, I will not be putting wingtai in the same category as the rest of the developers here - It does not really hold any investment properties and its retail business seems to be suffering.
Wingtai currently has 611mil sgd worth of invesmtment properties in Sg, Hk, China and Malaysia, they recently bought another commerical property in Australia. If you follow Wingtai, you will know that management is going towards the right direction. To each his own though.
For starters...
FCL Assets of 24b of which 8.5b are in REITs, makes 0.6b of "investment property" incomparable. Furthermore there is a difference when FCL can easily recycle their capital into their multitude of well managed REITs vs an investment property portfolio.
(21-11-2016, 11:24 AM)piggo Wrote: [ -> ]For starters...
FCL Assets of 24b of which 8.5b are in REITs, makes 0.6b of "investment property" incomparable. Furthermore there is a difference when FCL can easily recycle their capital into their multitude of well managed REITs vs an investment property portfolio.
FCL has 7.6 bil in net debt thats more than their total equity(Havent include their massive perp issue). I personally would not touch as I find there are much better developers out there especially in this current rising interest rate environment. Reit is just a vehicle for them to dispose assets out to get it fully valued(I personally do not like reits due to their lack of retain earnings, high manageral fees and money raising via share dilution).
My personal view only.