ValueBuddies.com : Value Investing Forum - Singapore, Hong Kong, U.S.

CIMB:

Ready for the big league
We believe FCL is significantly underpriced, backed by its portfolio of
undervalued assets with redevelopment potential and S$3.2bn presales
yet to be booked. The capacity to lift its asset recycling/ AUM platform
is considerable with TCC on board. The stock’s low free float is still
prohibitive for large investors but we think this will change over time.
We begin coverage with an Add rating
and a target price of S$2.06, set at a
30% discount (1x P/BV) to RNAV.
FCL is trading at a 48% discount to
RNAV, much wider than the sector
average of 34%. Potential catalysts
include successful asset recycling and
moves to increase the stock’s free
float. Downside risks come from
weaker-than-expected demand for
REITs and commercial/retail rents.
Ready for the big league
FCL is an property developer and
investor. With a GAV of S$10.5bn, it
is up there with Singapore’s big-cap
property developers. Its timing of the
Singapore housing market has been
good (mostly sold) and it made an
early entry into its core overseas
markets (Australia and China). FCL
exited FY13 with over S$3.2bn of
presales yet to be recognised or 72%
of its revenue in FY14-15. We think
there is considerable redevelopment
or AEI potential for its existing
Singapore commercial properties
(54% of GAV), many of which are
dated and under-rented but in prime
locations. With TCC on board and the
right blend of income-producing and
development assets, we believe there
is considerable capacity for FCL to
expand its asset recycling/AUM
platform. A new hospitality REIT is a
real possibility for 2014 while more
mature malls could be recycled with
proceeds re-invested in developments
and/or AEIs, or simply returned back
to shareholders.
Free float to rise over time
We believe that Thai Bev and/or TCC
will do more to increase FCL’s free
float. This will help improve investor
participation and narrow the
valuation discount, in our view. This
move is likely to depend on market
forces. But based on the current share
prices of FCL and FNN, we believe
the owners are now in the money. At
current share prices, we view FCL as
substantially underpriced relative to
FNN on a pre-demerger basis.
Valuation
At current levels, we believe the
market has not attached any value to
1) its asset recycling/AUM platform, 2)
its S$3.2bn unbooked presales, and 3)
potential development and AEI
upside for its existing portfolio.

(08-02-2014, 11:30 AM)cfa Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-02-2014, 11:19 AM)AlphaQuant Wrote: [ -> ]at this price level, and the fact there is alignment of interest between non- vs controlling shareholders, while one cannot be sure of the upside, I will think the downside is very limited. Just buy and hold and let the convexity work in your favor over time.

Agree at this level , downside should be limited considering trading for this counter began at around 1.61, and many rushed in at around 1.50 or above.

maybe we should focus on the fundamentals (like book value, the assets, the manangement?) instead of the stock price?

(08-02-2014, 11:47 AM)felixleong Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-02-2014, 11:30 AM)cfa Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-02-2014, 11:19 AM)AlphaQuant Wrote: [ -> ]at this price level, and the fact there is alignment of interest between non- vs controlling shareholders, while one cannot be sure of the upside, I will think the downside is very limited. Just buy and hold and let the convexity work in your favor over time.

Agree at this level , downside should be limited considering trading for this counter began at around 1.61, and many rushed in at around 1.50 or above.

maybe we should focus on the fundamentals (like book value, the assets, the manangement?) instead of the stock price?

Agree we should focus more on fundamentals but we must also estimate what share price level to enter so as to justify the fundamentals. I will pick up some next week at this level as feel downside risk is limited . Compare to many who bought at 1.5 and above, I have better margin for error . It is just my opinion .

Got mine at 1.40 today. Should be near lowest if not the lowest.

(10-02-2014, 05:14 PM)cfa Wrote: [ -> ]Got mine at 1.40 today. Should be near lowest if not the lowest.

Life's a bit*h and it sure likes to give one a rude surprise at times. I wouldn't attempt to make such predictions if i were u, but it does give me a dose of dopamine, knowing that my cost price is lower than half of the people are posting in this thread!

*no pun intended*

Disclosure: I know nuts on technical analysis to determine highs/bottoms, but my gut sense tells me that fear indicates bottoms, while the no. of 'huats ah' or buying interest dictates highs. Whether VB or CNA, there is much similarities.

(10-02-2014, 08:31 PM)weijian Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-02-2014, 05:14 PM)cfa Wrote: [ -> ]Got mine at 1.40 today. Should be near lowest if not the lowest.

Life's a bit*h and it sure likes to give one a rude surprise at times. I wouldn't attempt to make such predictions if i were u, but it does give me a dose of dopamine, knowing that my cost price is lower than half of the people are posting in this thread!

*no pun intended*

Disclosure: I know nuts on technical analysis to determine highs/bottoms, but my gut sense tells me that fear indicates bottoms, while the no. of 'huats ah' or buying interest dictates highs. Whether VB or CNA, there is much similarities.

Well I bot 56 lots at 1.415...huat ah

If price goes down further , will buy more to average.

(10-02-2014, 08:31 PM)weijian Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-02-2014, 05:14 PM)cfa Wrote: [ -> ]Got mine at 1.40 today. Should be near lowest if not the lowest.

Life's a bit*h and it sure likes to give one a rude surprise at times. I wouldn't attempt to make such predictions if i were u, but it does give me a dose of dopamine, knowing that my cost price is lower than half of the people are posting in this thread!

*no pun intended*

Disclosure: I know nuts on technical analysis to determine highs/bottoms, but my gut sense tells me that fear indicates bottoms, while the no. of 'huats ah' or buying interest dictates highs. Whether VB or CNA, there is much similarities.

If I were you I wouldn't disagree with such posting. I thank him/her for the reminder.

Frasers to rethink city site
GREG BROWN THE AUSTRALIAN FEBRUARY 10, 2014 12:00AM

SYDNEY'S $2 billion Central Park development is set to become a student hub rather than a corporate area.

Singaporean developer Frasers Property will reduce its planned office space for the precinct and instead use the space for student accommodation and more residential apartments.

In a huge change of plans, it is understood that Frasers and joint developer Sekisui House intend to more than halve the amount of office space it planned to develop, from 55,000sq m -- as released by the Property Council of Australia last week -- to about 20,000sq m.

Under the new plans, there will only be one office tower with one tenant leasing the space, according to sources, with education provider Navitas close to agreeing to terms to occupy about 17,000sq m, as revealed by The Australian last year.

In a move to take advantage of Sydney's hot residential market, Frasers Property is expected to convert part of the commercial area, at Block 1 of 100 Broadway, into residential apartments.

This has been approved by the NSW Department of Planning, with Frasers allowed to convert the area to residential use if the commercial use proves unviable.

Frasers had struggled to pre-commit office tenants to the inner-city Central Park precinct but had success in selling its residential apartments, with more than 1200 of the 1400 apartments sold in the first three stages of sales.

There are also plans to build student accommodation dwellings on land that was designated for office space, sources say.

The Department of Planning gave approval to convert Block 4N to student accommodation, which will add to the existing student accommodation at the precinct. A spokeswoman for Frasers confirmed the approvals but said that the block remained commercial at this stage.

The move would be a boost for the mooted tenant, the listed group Navitas, as an increase in student accommodation at Central Park is likely to lift its student numbers.

Q1 result shows NAV Of 2.15

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/FCL-1Qtr...eID=274218