(20-09-2013, 11:05 PM)corydorus Wrote: [ -> ]Not sure this table helps in this context. Why are we measuring REITs by capital gains ? People who invest in Reits go for yields. We can try to time our entry but if you are out for a period of time such as cash, the time for waiting is your yield loss too.
Furthermore for Fed to taper, the economy has to be much stronger which may also mean better rental price to keep a closer pace with rates up.
Some people may find such tables useful as a first screen... before looking at the other financial data such as Yield, Gearing, NAV, Major Shareholders,... I do that sometimes...
I feel its kind of strange to indulge in this chart.
Perhaps it can helps to "tikam" the choice of Reit to invest, after all there's a saying about looking for 52 wks low counter since chances has it that it has a higher probability of appreciation due to extreme negative swing.
Nevertheless, the chart doesn't capture anything about any of the counters, no debt value especially. Given in current "Taper on, Taper off" situation, I wouldn't dare to tikam based on such chart.
(21-09-2013, 12:16 AM)swakoo Wrote: [ -> ]The tables show Fortune reit is the top loser from May 2013 and from the 52 week high.
And this is still the case if we look at the charts for Fortune reit (pink line) vs the grandfather reits over the past 3 months:
[Image: z?s=%5eSTI&t=3m&q=l&l=off&z=l&c=C38U.SI,...®ion=US]
If we expand our horizon to over the past 2 years:
[Image: z?s=%5eSTI&t=2y&q=l&l=off&z=l&c=C38U.SI,...®ion=US]
Fortune reit has gone up so much over the past 2 years that it is the top performer vs the grandfather reits (in spite of the recent under performance)! 
So, it's a mis-"Fortune" for those who'd bought from May-12 till as recent as 3mths ago... but, it could still possibly be over-priced when viewed from the perspective of 2 years ago prices...
For those who seems offended by the graph I'd posted earlier, please take note that as per what I'd posted earlier, the graph
MAY be useful
ONLY as a
FIRST SCREEN, after which, you'd still need to do your usual research.... Hey! Just because I'm a TikamBuddy doesn't mean I do no homework or am encouraging others to anyhow tikam-tikam blindly using a single graph...
PS. I emphasis the key words using red, bold and upper case in case people get too overly focussed on the graphs
Well... I am one of the "mis-Fortune". Sold too early, before the run up.
I do believe that most people here do not take "tips" just like that. Most will do their own homework no matter how others say how good a company is. For any gain, there are all to thank for. For any losses, there is only ownself to blame.
(21-09-2013, 08:45 AM)KopiKat Wrote: [ -> ]Hey! Just because I'm a TikamBuddy doesn't mean I do no homework or am encouraging others to anyhow tikam-tikam blindly using a single graph...
Au contraire, anyone who has been reading your postings will know the great level of attention and details behind each of your what you modestly call a tikam.
While on charts, here's another one:
[Image: government-bond-yield&type=line&title=SI...ND%20YIELD]
Over the past 5 years, the 10yr SGS is usually lower than the UST 10yr but at times of stress this gap narrows eg. 2008 GFC and past few months due to "taper" whisper.
(21-09-2013, 09:34 AM)swakoo Wrote: [ -> ]Au contraire,
Wah... the people here really have "ink-water" (墨水) - Mandarin, Japanese, Malay,... now French! Luckily we have Google Translate or simply internet search for those with no "ink"...
Quote:While on charts, here's another one:
[Image: government-bond-yield&type=line&title=SI...ND%20YIELD]
Over the past 5 years, the 10yr SGS is usually lower than the UST 10yr but at times of stress this gap narrows eg. 2008 GFC and past few months due to "taper" whisper.
So, what does that means? Have to turn cautious on REITs? Especially with Bond Yield rising so steeply? I'm now down to my low teens (% of portfolio) in REITs due to many other available tikams in recent times and seems to be having problem looking for suitable REITs to hold for longer term...
Singapore government borrows so little, in reality, it does not set the "risk-free" rate for Singapore dollar borrowings. In another way, MAS does not print enough money(quite some of MAS liabilities are foreign reserve and offset by government surplus, rather than Singapore Dollar assets), thus, MAS can't influence Singapore dollar interest rate much, either. Singapore borrowing rate is more influenced by US$ borrowing(10-year treasury/libor) and exchange rate(MAS influenced).
(21-09-2013, 09:57 AM)KopiKat Wrote: [ -> ] (21-09-2013, 09:34 AM)swakoo Wrote: [ -> ]Au contraire,
Wah... the people here really have "ink-water" (墨水) - Mandarin, Japanese, Malay,... now French! Luckily we have Google Translate or simply internet search for those with no "ink"...
When it comes to a tikam, you are no horse run. (Or sui generis.)
Quote:So, what does that means?
I posted that chart hoping buddies will help to interpret what it means.
My only observation is that the 10yr SGS seems to generally track the 10yr UST with maybe a gap of 0.5-1% pt below but at times of stress this gap vanishes rapidly and even reverses, then opens up again.
Eg. it shot up a lot in May/June this year past the 10yr UST, then past 2 days fell well below the 10yr UST after no taper. Seems like it is very volatile at times of stress - much more volatile than the 10yr UST. As S-reits are typically benchmarked to it, this volatility transmits to the S-reits too.
(21-09-2013, 10:35 AM)swakoo Wrote: [ -> ]sui generis
OMG... Latin also
Lousy Google Translate detected it as Italian and initial internet searches led to a condo, rock band, consulting firm, shopping site,...