I do not think a crash is coming
Been waiting for a crash since 2009, still waiting until now, not sure have to wait how many more year. Meanwhile, my money is in the bank getting eroded by inflation.
it is almost meaningless to sit tight and wait for market crash. small crashes happens all the time, but investors often miss it as they are awaiting for larger crashes. However, larger crashes come rarely. Maybe once in 10 years. Huge crash is short as well. 1 -2 years, it is gone and bull market all the way for another 10 years.
So what's the point?
(12-09-2013, 03:19 PM)Janjansen Wrote: [ -> ]I do not think a crash is coming
Been waiting for a crash since 2009, still waiting until now, not sure have to wait how many more year. Meanwhile, my money is in the bank getting eroded by inflation.
Surest way to find big crashes are after a big market big run up what goes up must come down eventually.
But from experience I see even there is a big crash many who are waiting most likely will not dare to venture in also, because they are greedy and want to make their money's worth but for your case I see you don't have any other regular income to fall back on you need to assess for yourself if you are afraid losing. Maybe because you can't see the bottom and could be fearful to lose money if went in and market tank even further. I find this to be the case of some friends not having regular income they afraid to make the move even when opportunities appears because they cannot afford to lose or they go in they get out too fast or prematurely because they fearful of loss.
If you cannot afford to lose then better get a 8-5 job and forget about playing the market. Because if you dunno what you are doing then is just as good as tikum at casino.
(12-09-2013, 03:19 PM)Janjansen Wrote: [ -> ]I do not think a crash is coming
Been waiting for a crash since 2009, still waiting until now, not sure have to wait how many more year. Meanwhile, my money is in the bank getting eroded by inflation.
I thought late 2008 and early 2009 was the crash?
I guess it's hard to squeese the trigger when prices keep moving up.
Do let us know if you decide to throw in the towel and bite the bullet by buying.
(12-09-2013, 03:19 PM)Janjansen Wrote: [ -> ]I do not think a crash is coming
Been waiting for a crash since 2009, still waiting until now, not sure have to wait how many more year. Meanwhile, my money is in the bank getting eroded by inflation.
If you are totally 100% cash position, I would advise to step in with 10% whenever there is a 10% down
Usually crash is sudden happens over a month or two and its down like 40%. So if you buy in whenever there is a sudden drop you can average down into the market and as no one knows where is the bottom you will still have buy in power even if market down 60%. The last 2008/2009 lows are a good level to estimate how much you want to have in reserve.
(12-09-2013, 05:19 PM)Jared Seah Wrote: [ -> ] (12-09-2013, 03:19 PM)Janjansen Wrote: [ -> ]I do not think a crash is coming
Been waiting for a crash since 2009, still waiting until now, not sure have to wait how many more year. Meanwhile, my money is in the bank getting eroded by inflation.
I thought late 2008 and early 2009 was the crash?
I guess it's hard to squeese the trigger when prices keep moving up.
Do let us know if you decide to throw in the towel and bite the bullet by buying.
haha we dont mean to use you as an indicator but it will be a good guide
(12-09-2013, 03:19 PM)Janjansen Wrote: [ -> ]I do not think a crash is coming
Been waiting for a crash since 2009, still waiting until now, not sure have to wait how many more year. Meanwhile, my money is in the bank getting eroded by inflation.
Hi,
Before 2008, the last significant downturn was in 2002-3 and the last crash was in 1997. As for recent events, there were some turbulence that i remembered in mid 2010, while the markets also stuttered during Aug2011 due to the US fiscal cliff issue. While prices were going crazy in 1997/2008, thought the more recent bear market/corrections could also have presented some value buys.
The point is, is waiting your natural temperament and style? If yes, you wouldn't be complaining. The naturally patient one carries on his/her
usual business while the market swings sideways..the
usual business of enjoying life, self improvement, observing the market and its participants, and short listing his 'preys to be'...
Instead of focusing on market-wide crash, betting on "mini-crashes" of "good" stocks, will increase the opportunities to invest for your free cash, imo
Base on the average PE of STI now, it is quite unlikely a market-wide crash will occur in near term, imo.
A good stock is one that has a higher low in the next crash, and a higher high in the next run, over a medium term cycle
(12-09-2013, 05:19 PM)Jared Seah Wrote: [ -> ]I thought late 2008 and early 2009 was the crash?
I guess it's hard to squeese the trigger when prices keep moving up.
Do let us know if you decide to throw in the towel and bite the bullet by buying.
If and when I throw in the towel and start buying, it could only mean that the real crash is coming. Despite my best efforts, whatever stock I buy usually suffers price drops after my purchase. And it seems that the longer I wait before buying, the sharper the price drop.
I have been waiting four years. So trust me when I tell you that the price drop will be EPIC when I make my purchase after such a long wait.