17-05-2013, 09:59 AM
Population in 2012 ~5.31mil. Target 2030 ~6.9mil. That means every year there has to be ~88k new foreigners coming in. EVERY YEAR! Is spore going to build 60k homes every year?
(17-05-2013, 10:37 AM)mulyc Wrote: [ -> ]Well you have to consider that new foreigners come in families, so you can divide your figures by at least 2, and alot of this is replacement population, where our current birthrate is not replacing fast enough. So yes, there will still be housing demand, but it will not be as strong anymore.
Add to that a slowdown in China coupled with a pick up in SEA emerging markets property demand would likely mean less demand for investment-grade housing in SG.
KBW has been quite determined to stabilize property prices since he took on his MND portfolio. So the upside is limited already.
Just wait for the release of all the new housing units in 2013/14/15 to see the effects. We might see an oversupply soon unless the gahmen relaxes the immigration policy. But then that would only be bad for their bid to continue power in 2016.
(17-05-2013, 10:45 AM)shareinvestor1 Wrote: [ -> ]If majority of Singaporeans are vested in multiple properties, people will still vote for PAP in 2016. It is like in the 90s when PAP use estate upgrading for votes..
Nevertheless the world has become more flat and we can all choose to live where we like best, the catch is need to have some spare cash.. and not all the cash into Singapore properties..
(17-05-2013, 10:37 AM)mulyc Wrote: [ -> ]Well you have to consider that new foreigners come in families, so you can divide your figures by at least 2, and alot of this is replacement population, where our current birthrate is not replacing fast enough. So yes, there will still be housing demand, but it will not be as strong anymore.
Add to that a slowdown in China coupled with a pick up in SEA emerging markets property demand would likely mean less demand for investment-grade housing in SG.
KBW has been quite determined to stabilize property prices since he took on his MND portfolio. So the upside is limited already.
Just wait for the release of all the new housing units in 2013/14/15 to see the effects. We might see an oversupply soon unless the gahmen relaxes the immigration policy. But then that would only be bad for their bid to continue power in 2016.
(17-05-2013, 10:51 AM)mulyc Wrote: [ -> ](17-05-2013, 10:45 AM)shareinvestor1 Wrote: [ -> ]If majority of Singaporeans are vested in multiple properties, people will still vote for PAP in 2016. It is like in the 90s when PAP use estate upgrading for votes..
Nevertheless the world has become more flat and we can all choose to live where we like best, the catch is need to have some spare cash.. and not all the cash into Singapore properties..
(17-05-2013, 10:37 AM)mulyc Wrote: [ -> ]Well you have to consider that new foreigners come in families, so you can divide your figures by at least 2, and alot of this is replacement population, where our current birthrate is not replacing fast enough. So yes, there will still be housing demand, but it will not be as strong anymore.
Add to that a slowdown in China coupled with a pick up in SEA emerging markets property demand would likely mean less demand for investment-grade housing in SG.
KBW has been quite determined to stabilize property prices since he took on his MND portfolio. So the upside is limited already.
Just wait for the release of all the new housing units in 2013/14/15 to see the effects. We might see an oversupply soon unless the gahmen relaxes the immigration policy. But then that would only be bad for their bid to continue power in 2016.
That's other problem. Those holding multiple properties who see the rental market collapse will not be able to use their rents to cover instalments and therefore choose to sell, adding to the downward cycle. Plus interest rates are starting to turn upwards.
I'm not hoping for a collapse in SG property but these are the things I see and note in my daily work. It is enough to hold back many potential purchases already.
(17-05-2013, 11:06 AM)mulyc Wrote: [ -> ]Yah if you watched the property crash in the late 80s, it is not funny at all. Even property cycle has got similar Wave theory. After the first wave of selling, people jump back in to buy thinking its cheap, then another wave spikes downwards and everyone is caught with their pants down and the buyers in the market suddenly disappear...