20-04-2013, 09:34 PM
The Straits Times
www.straitstimes.com
Published on Apr 20, 2013
Car-less in Singapore
Despite some of the highest car prices in the world, Singapore lags behind other cities in public transport use. Goh Chin Lian reports on the road blocks in getting people to make the switch.
ARMY logistics officer Izad Shafiee, 33, can afford a car but chooses not to own one.
While his colleagues drive to work, Second Warrant Officer Izad wakes up before dawn to take the bus and MRT from his four-room flat in Tampines to Kranji Camp.
When he and his wife go out with their daughters, aged two and four, they take public transport too, with one or two prams.
His story is a counterpoint to those who say they really need a car in Singapore - or aspire to have one - but find it unhappily out of their financial reach.
While certificate of entitlement (COE) premiums and car ownership have always been hot topics, high prices and recent government-imposed loan curbs have fuelled the current debate.
The Government is now undertaking a long-term review of the COE system even as it hopes to move more people from cars towards public transport. Its latest offer is "free travel" on the MRT to the city before 7.45am, to ease peak-hour crowding.
How effective are measures to move more people to public transport and to control the car population that stands at more than half a million now?
Can you have a good quality of life here without a car?
What is the future of the car in Singapore?
Insight takes a ride through these issues.
Current traffic status
TRANSPORT planners here have always pushed for public transport as the key way to move people instead of building more roads to accommodate more cars.
They cite Singapore's land constraints, with 12 per cent of the island already taken up by roads.
But figures suggest people's desire for cars remains unabated, and public transport is not yet the most attractive choice, at least not to the extent of other thriving cities.
Of the 1.2 million households here, the proportion who owned one or more cars grew from 38 per cent in 2004, to 40 per cent in 2008, and 45 per cent last year.
The majority - 55 per cent of households last year - were still "car-less". But their ranks have shrunk from 62 per cent eight years before.
Of the number of journeys made by private car, and by bus, train and other modes during morning peak hours alone, public transport's share has also fallen.
It went from 67 per cent in 1997 to 63 per cent in 2004, to 59 per cent in 2008. It should have picked up and "crossed 60 per cent", Transport Minister Lui Tuck Yew said in an interview last year, ahead of a household travel survey.
Commentators point to Hong Kong, where nearly everyone takes public transport, including the upper middle class, and ask why the same is not happening in Singapore.
Public transport there accounts for 80 per cent of daily trips, against Singapore's 57 per cent, based on 2011 figures.
One reason for Singapore's motor mania is that car ownership was made more affordable - well, until the COE price hikes over the past three years.
The Additional Registration Fee (ARF), a form of car tax, fell from 140 per cent of the open market value of a car to 130 per cent in 2002, and to 100 per cent in 2008. Car loan curbs in force from 1995 were lifted in 2003 until two months ago.
The Government also let the car population keep growing, although at a slower pace from 2009. Economic growth and low interest rates boosted the buying power of Singaporeans.
Over the past three years, the car population grew 2 per cent to 2.8 per cent, year on year.
Even with usage charges, the average annual mileage the cars clocked up fell by just 2.6 per cent in 2010 and 0.5 per cent in 2011. Last year's figures have not been published.
There was little incentive not to choose a car, if you could afford it - trains and buses were crowded and unreliable.
Improvements to public transport infrastructure did not keep up with a 20 per cent boom in the population over the past seven years. It was this boom that fuelled a large part of the 40 per cent increase in public transport ridership over the same period.
Transport expert Paul Barter, an adjunct professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, notes that even an expanded MRT network needs buses to complement it but bus waiting times are too long. Also, there are mobility gaps not bridged by MRT and buses, he says.
These gaps include short trips between 1km and 4km, the "last mile" from the MRT station to the office or the home, major shopping trips and trips made with pets and small children.
"Singaporeans still think excellent mobility equals car ownership, while public transport is not yet seen as a comprehensive alternative," Prof Barter concludes.
Singapore's approach to parking contradicts other key transport policy objectives, he adds. It includes requirements for buildings to provide at least a certain number of parking spaces. Parking prices are also not adjusted to suit each local situation and each period in the day.
In contrast, Hongkong's limited and pricey parking serves to help rein in car demand.
Good life without a car?
OWNING a car is a necessity, say 28 per cent of the 43 people who gave their views this week to the Singapolitics website and The Straits Times on Facebook and in a street poll.
They cite practical concerns such as their jobs requiring them to traverse the island, and taking young children out without tiring them before they reach their destination.
Public transport is also unappealing to them: Trains and buses are crowded. Taxis are hard to find when they need them most.
Many, however, say they manage without a car. They plan ahead to arrive at their destination on time, work closer to home, and if their children are tired on an outing, take a cab home.
Others aspire to own a car but dread traffic jams and the hassle of finding parking. But the biggest turn-off is the high cost of buying and maintaining a car.
They feel that the money can be better spent on housing, travel or their children's education.
Mr Izad speaks for many when he says: "It costs a bomb to own a car. I can put the money into my daughters' bank account."
Another way to look at the cost differential comes from an official figure announced in last year's Budget debate: A middle-income Singaporean who does not own a car gets back $1.50 for every dollar of tax he pays over his lifetime. One who owns a car gets back 80 cents, nearly half as much.
The issue of costs also touches on whether the Government should help certain segments of the population to own cars.
Off-peak cars, which enjoy a $17,000 rebate and can be used on weekdays from 7pm to 7am, and on weekends are one alternative. Costs aside, the status that a car confers is another reason people will buy one. Prof Barter says: "Can we set a goal to make not owning a car a truly excellent mobility choice for most people, where being car-free is a positive, high-prestige choice and is appealing even if you can afford a car?"
He argues that to compete with car ownership, public transport needs both more MRT lines and a better bus system, integrated with, for example, bicycle infrastructure, car-sharing, taxis, delivery services, smart parking pricing and management, and integrated information and payments for mobility services.
The future of the car
HIGH COE prices may have made some think twice about buying a car and to rely on buses, trains and taxis instead, but their salutary effect will be dampened in the coming years.
COE premiums, which hit $92,100 three months ago for small cars, are expected to stabilise from next year.
From 2014 to 2018, an average of about 100,000 cars will be 10 years old each year, and most will be scrapped, estimates NUS Business School Associate Professor of Business Analytics Chu Sing Fat.
"This will lead to bountiful supplies of COEs," he predicts.
"Even though a fraction of these COEs are kept in reserve to beef up what would otherwise be a return to meagre quotas around 2020, we can look forward to about 70,000 to 80,000 COEs available for cars."
He notes that the typical premium for such annual provision of COEs was between $25,000 and $40,000, say, from 2000 to 2003, but in the 2009 economic crisis, it fell to about $11,000.
Ultimately, the priority for transport planners is to keep traffic flowing smoothly, and the working assumption is that more car owners need not mean more congestion, if Singapore also manages car usage.
On the horizon is the move to charge motorists based on distance travelled instead of the flat fee levied at an Electronic Road Pricing gantry. Its speed of implementation is constrained partly by the state of technology.
The next-generation, satellite-based ERP is not expected to come on stream until 2018 at the earliest.
Getting political support for more widespread ERP charges is another hurdle, observers say.
The Government has also set ambitious goals for making public transport attractive to Singaporeans.
It aims to raise public transport's share of morning peak hour journeys to 70 per cent by 2020, and 75 per cent by 2030, when Singapore's population could reach 6.9 million.
By then, the rail network will have doubled to 360km.
The chairman of the Public Transport Council, Mr Gerard Ee, is optimistic that people will think differently about taking public transport when three things are in place: Getting a bus to the nearest MRT is made more convenient; higher connectivity with a larger rail network; and taxis are easily available for families with children.
The last point, he says, is the "big question mark".
"On paper, we have so many taxis but we hear people grumbling they cannot find one when they need it. Taxi operators need to see how the system can be run efficiently."
When it comes to public transport, "anyone can do the maths", says the trained accountant. "If I travel this way and invest the money I would have spent on the car, I can take taxis every day. The car is a depreciating asset anyway but we need the conditions to see people willing to give it up."
The chairman of the Government Parliamentary Committee for Transport, Mr Cedric Foo, believes the broader thrust is to convince the next generation of Singaporeans who do not yet own a car, that public transport is better.
This calls for accelerating measures now to improve the frequency, reliability and coverage of trains and buses, so that the young have a positive travel experience.
Mr Foo says: "For those who already have a car, it is very difficult for them to switch out of it. Our MRT used to be lauded as the best system in the world. Demand just surged ahead of supply and we are doing a little bit of catch-up."
chinlian@sph.com.sg
www.straitstimes.com
Published on Apr 20, 2013
Car-less in Singapore
Despite some of the highest car prices in the world, Singapore lags behind other cities in public transport use. Goh Chin Lian reports on the road blocks in getting people to make the switch.
ARMY logistics officer Izad Shafiee, 33, can afford a car but chooses not to own one.
While his colleagues drive to work, Second Warrant Officer Izad wakes up before dawn to take the bus and MRT from his four-room flat in Tampines to Kranji Camp.
When he and his wife go out with their daughters, aged two and four, they take public transport too, with one or two prams.
His story is a counterpoint to those who say they really need a car in Singapore - or aspire to have one - but find it unhappily out of their financial reach.
While certificate of entitlement (COE) premiums and car ownership have always been hot topics, high prices and recent government-imposed loan curbs have fuelled the current debate.
The Government is now undertaking a long-term review of the COE system even as it hopes to move more people from cars towards public transport. Its latest offer is "free travel" on the MRT to the city before 7.45am, to ease peak-hour crowding.
How effective are measures to move more people to public transport and to control the car population that stands at more than half a million now?
Can you have a good quality of life here without a car?
What is the future of the car in Singapore?
Insight takes a ride through these issues.
Current traffic status
TRANSPORT planners here have always pushed for public transport as the key way to move people instead of building more roads to accommodate more cars.
They cite Singapore's land constraints, with 12 per cent of the island already taken up by roads.
But figures suggest people's desire for cars remains unabated, and public transport is not yet the most attractive choice, at least not to the extent of other thriving cities.
Of the 1.2 million households here, the proportion who owned one or more cars grew from 38 per cent in 2004, to 40 per cent in 2008, and 45 per cent last year.
The majority - 55 per cent of households last year - were still "car-less". But their ranks have shrunk from 62 per cent eight years before.
Of the number of journeys made by private car, and by bus, train and other modes during morning peak hours alone, public transport's share has also fallen.
It went from 67 per cent in 1997 to 63 per cent in 2004, to 59 per cent in 2008. It should have picked up and "crossed 60 per cent", Transport Minister Lui Tuck Yew said in an interview last year, ahead of a household travel survey.
Commentators point to Hong Kong, where nearly everyone takes public transport, including the upper middle class, and ask why the same is not happening in Singapore.
Public transport there accounts for 80 per cent of daily trips, against Singapore's 57 per cent, based on 2011 figures.
One reason for Singapore's motor mania is that car ownership was made more affordable - well, until the COE price hikes over the past three years.
The Additional Registration Fee (ARF), a form of car tax, fell from 140 per cent of the open market value of a car to 130 per cent in 2002, and to 100 per cent in 2008. Car loan curbs in force from 1995 were lifted in 2003 until two months ago.
The Government also let the car population keep growing, although at a slower pace from 2009. Economic growth and low interest rates boosted the buying power of Singaporeans.
Over the past three years, the car population grew 2 per cent to 2.8 per cent, year on year.
Even with usage charges, the average annual mileage the cars clocked up fell by just 2.6 per cent in 2010 and 0.5 per cent in 2011. Last year's figures have not been published.
There was little incentive not to choose a car, if you could afford it - trains and buses were crowded and unreliable.
Improvements to public transport infrastructure did not keep up with a 20 per cent boom in the population over the past seven years. It was this boom that fuelled a large part of the 40 per cent increase in public transport ridership over the same period.
Transport expert Paul Barter, an adjunct professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, notes that even an expanded MRT network needs buses to complement it but bus waiting times are too long. Also, there are mobility gaps not bridged by MRT and buses, he says.
These gaps include short trips between 1km and 4km, the "last mile" from the MRT station to the office or the home, major shopping trips and trips made with pets and small children.
"Singaporeans still think excellent mobility equals car ownership, while public transport is not yet seen as a comprehensive alternative," Prof Barter concludes.
Singapore's approach to parking contradicts other key transport policy objectives, he adds. It includes requirements for buildings to provide at least a certain number of parking spaces. Parking prices are also not adjusted to suit each local situation and each period in the day.
In contrast, Hongkong's limited and pricey parking serves to help rein in car demand.
Good life without a car?
OWNING a car is a necessity, say 28 per cent of the 43 people who gave their views this week to the Singapolitics website and The Straits Times on Facebook and in a street poll.
They cite practical concerns such as their jobs requiring them to traverse the island, and taking young children out without tiring them before they reach their destination.
Public transport is also unappealing to them: Trains and buses are crowded. Taxis are hard to find when they need them most.
Many, however, say they manage without a car. They plan ahead to arrive at their destination on time, work closer to home, and if their children are tired on an outing, take a cab home.
Others aspire to own a car but dread traffic jams and the hassle of finding parking. But the biggest turn-off is the high cost of buying and maintaining a car.
They feel that the money can be better spent on housing, travel or their children's education.
Mr Izad speaks for many when he says: "It costs a bomb to own a car. I can put the money into my daughters' bank account."
Another way to look at the cost differential comes from an official figure announced in last year's Budget debate: A middle-income Singaporean who does not own a car gets back $1.50 for every dollar of tax he pays over his lifetime. One who owns a car gets back 80 cents, nearly half as much.
The issue of costs also touches on whether the Government should help certain segments of the population to own cars.
Off-peak cars, which enjoy a $17,000 rebate and can be used on weekdays from 7pm to 7am, and on weekends are one alternative. Costs aside, the status that a car confers is another reason people will buy one. Prof Barter says: "Can we set a goal to make not owning a car a truly excellent mobility choice for most people, where being car-free is a positive, high-prestige choice and is appealing even if you can afford a car?"
He argues that to compete with car ownership, public transport needs both more MRT lines and a better bus system, integrated with, for example, bicycle infrastructure, car-sharing, taxis, delivery services, smart parking pricing and management, and integrated information and payments for mobility services.
The future of the car
HIGH COE prices may have made some think twice about buying a car and to rely on buses, trains and taxis instead, but their salutary effect will be dampened in the coming years.
COE premiums, which hit $92,100 three months ago for small cars, are expected to stabilise from next year.
From 2014 to 2018, an average of about 100,000 cars will be 10 years old each year, and most will be scrapped, estimates NUS Business School Associate Professor of Business Analytics Chu Sing Fat.
"This will lead to bountiful supplies of COEs," he predicts.
"Even though a fraction of these COEs are kept in reserve to beef up what would otherwise be a return to meagre quotas around 2020, we can look forward to about 70,000 to 80,000 COEs available for cars."
He notes that the typical premium for such annual provision of COEs was between $25,000 and $40,000, say, from 2000 to 2003, but in the 2009 economic crisis, it fell to about $11,000.
Ultimately, the priority for transport planners is to keep traffic flowing smoothly, and the working assumption is that more car owners need not mean more congestion, if Singapore also manages car usage.
On the horizon is the move to charge motorists based on distance travelled instead of the flat fee levied at an Electronic Road Pricing gantry. Its speed of implementation is constrained partly by the state of technology.
The next-generation, satellite-based ERP is not expected to come on stream until 2018 at the earliest.
Getting political support for more widespread ERP charges is another hurdle, observers say.
The Government has also set ambitious goals for making public transport attractive to Singaporeans.
It aims to raise public transport's share of morning peak hour journeys to 70 per cent by 2020, and 75 per cent by 2030, when Singapore's population could reach 6.9 million.
By then, the rail network will have doubled to 360km.
The chairman of the Public Transport Council, Mr Gerard Ee, is optimistic that people will think differently about taking public transport when three things are in place: Getting a bus to the nearest MRT is made more convenient; higher connectivity with a larger rail network; and taxis are easily available for families with children.
The last point, he says, is the "big question mark".
"On paper, we have so many taxis but we hear people grumbling they cannot find one when they need it. Taxi operators need to see how the system can be run efficiently."
When it comes to public transport, "anyone can do the maths", says the trained accountant. "If I travel this way and invest the money I would have spent on the car, I can take taxis every day. The car is a depreciating asset anyway but we need the conditions to see people willing to give it up."
The chairman of the Government Parliamentary Committee for Transport, Mr Cedric Foo, believes the broader thrust is to convince the next generation of Singaporeans who do not yet own a car, that public transport is better.
This calls for accelerating measures now to improve the frequency, reliability and coverage of trains and buses, so that the young have a positive travel experience.
Mr Foo says: "For those who already have a car, it is very difficult for them to switch out of it. Our MRT used to be lauded as the best system in the world. Demand just surged ahead of supply and we are doing a little bit of catch-up."
chinlian@sph.com.sg