When I attended TS AGM last month, I don't have a good impression of the CEO. He merely sitting in and most of the questions posted by the shareholdings were answered by CFO.
However, during the break, I have a chance to chat with him with a small group. My impression change to positive after listen to him talking about the TS direction and strategies.
Divestment is one the main startegy. He think that current price for the legacy BU is under value. He will sell when the price is right.
(10-05-2013, 03:36 PM)Ray168 Wrote: [ -> ]When I attended TS AGM last month, I don't have a good impression of the CEO. He merely sitting in and most of the questions posted by the shareholdings were answered by CFO.
However, during the break, I have a chance to chat with him with a small group. My impression change to positive after listen to him talking about the TS direction and strategies.
Divestment is one the main startegy. He think that current price for the legacy BU is under value. He will sell when the price is right.
See, I told you there is deep value in Tuan Sing. Too bad, alot of investors dont realise that. When they do, the price will easily run pass sing Holdings share price.
(09-05-2013, 04:31 PM)propertyinvestor Wrote: [ -> ] (09-05-2013, 03:02 PM)bb88 Wrote: [ -> ] (09-05-2013, 01:59 PM)propertyinvestor Wrote: [ -> ]This is an under researched counter. Management has mentioned in the AGM that net margins from SPR, and Sennet is 'double digit" and are both selling like hotcakes. At the opportune time, they may also divest away Gul Tech at a good price of course.
I looked into Tuan Sing after looking at SPR. Loved it immensely and so tempted to buy a unit except it being out of reach haha. Bought a little into them since.
Sennett has a considerable number of high quantum units. ~90 units rough estimate $1.5-3m range. 11 penthouse smallest 2BR would fetch ~$3m to $5m+ for the largest 6BR (2 units).
During the AGM, was told only 1 PH was sold. Most of the units sold so far ~1.1m mark which are the 2BR.
I am concerned by the ability to sell those larger units especially in light of CM7. The CFO brushed this off. No answer was also given for the number of returned units.
Granted, Sennett is a good development. Was at the showflat launch weekend. Loved the layout. Very generous rooms and practical efficient design. People who were there had similar feedback. However, given the location and quantum, can they sell those >$3m units? I would have gone for landed with that budget. If they can't then there's a charge imposed ~4yrs from now.
Tuan Sing has another CPR to launch this year. They are unlikely to appoint any marketing agent for this as mentioned in the AGM. I wonder the ability to sell given that the quantum is going to be sky high.
With no more land on hand, TS needs to either bid aggressively for GLS or look towards enbloc. Unless they move out of the current HQ and development that plot.
Robinsons Tower is looking good to generate steady rental income when completed. Would they sell to a REIT or keep for rental?
TS seems happy just to bide time and hold on to Gultech and other non property interests until a great offer comes along while they happily draw salary and directorship fees.
I don't think it is that easy to get Tuan Sing to unlock and release value to minority shareholders. Tuan Sing is prudent and shrew but minority interests have scant attention. The board is rewarded more than shareholders with the paltry dividend.
You all should Talk to the indonesian bosses and try to convince them to unlock more value in TS. The CFO is so conservative. But if the indo bosses gives him the leeway to try out more risky ventures, im sure he will do it.
Assuming all 3 development projects are fully sold, SPR, CPR and Sennet will likely contribute 115million in NET profit for Tuan Sing in the next 4 years.
CFO also confirmed they use an ultra conservative valuation for the redevelopment of Robinson towers. So if you mark to market it at today's market rate, its worth 2.5 times more.
Ha... Indon bosses they are the main stumbling blocks to unlocking value in TS. I own shares in TS, SP and privatised Gul. So far, always no sound no picture.
Frankly, this bunch of Indon is not as aggressive as GTS. I suspect GTS is different after Salim emerged as a strategic partner. At least we do see open market purchases by GTS at right pricing levels for mkt signalling. I don't remember seeing TS Indon family making that purchases.
The management team at TS has not changed very much for years- Peter Sung has been there for the longest time. I seriously thing, this Indo family is just there to milk the cow. Not the type of Godfather to put too much trust in.
GG
Vested (Odd Lots in All)
Marketing for CPR has begun
(11-05-2013, 07:53 AM)greengiraffe Wrote: [ -> ] (09-05-2013, 04:31 PM)propertyinvestor Wrote: [ -> ] (09-05-2013, 03:02 PM)bb88 Wrote: [ -> ] (09-05-2013, 01:59 PM)propertyinvestor Wrote: [ -> ]This is an under researched counter. Management has mentioned in the AGM that net margins from SPR, and Sennet is 'double digit" and are both selling like hotcakes. At the opportune time, they may also divest away Gul Tech at a good price of course.
I looked into Tuan Sing after looking at SPR. Loved it immensely and so tempted to buy a unit except it being out of reach haha. Bought a little into them since.
Sennett has a considerable number of high quantum units. ~90 units rough estimate $1.5-3m range. 11 penthouse smallest 2BR would fetch ~$3m to $5m+ for the largest 6BR (2 units).
During the AGM, was told only 1 PH was sold. Most of the units sold so far ~1.1m mark which are the 2BR.
I am concerned by the ability to sell those larger units especially in light of CM7. The CFO brushed this off. No answer was also given for the number of returned units.
Granted, Sennett is a good development. Was at the showflat launch weekend. Loved the layout. Very generous rooms and practical efficient design. People who were there had similar feedback. However, given the location and quantum, can they sell those >$3m units? I would have gone for landed with that budget. If they can't then there's a charge imposed ~4yrs from now.
Tuan Sing has another CPR to launch this year. They are unlikely to appoint any marketing agent for this as mentioned in the AGM. I wonder the ability to sell given that the quantum is going to be sky high.
With no more land on hand, TS needs to either bid aggressively for GLS or look towards enbloc. Unless they move out of the current HQ and development that plot.
Robinsons Tower is looking good to generate steady rental income when completed. Would they sell to a REIT or keep for rental?
TS seems happy just to bide time and hold on to Gultech and other non property interests until a great offer comes along while they happily draw salary and directorship fees.
I don't think it is that easy to get Tuan Sing to unlock and release value to minority shareholders. Tuan Sing is prudent and shrew but minority interests have scant attention. The board is rewarded more than shareholders with the paltry dividend.
You all should Talk to the indonesian bosses and try to convince them to unlock more value in TS. The CFO is so conservative. But if the indo bosses gives him the leeway to try out more risky ventures, im sure he will do it.
Assuming all 3 development projects are fully sold, SPR, CPR and Sennet will likely contribute 115million in NET profit for Tuan Sing in the next 4 years.
CFO also confirmed they use an ultra conservative valuation for the redevelopment of Robinson towers. So if you mark to market it at today's market rate, its worth 2.5 times more.
Ha... Indon bosses they are the main stumbling blocks to unlocking value in TS. I own shares in TS, SP and privatised Gul. So far, always no sound no picture.
Frankly, this bunch of Indon is not as aggressive as GTS. I suspect GTS is different after Salim emerged as a strategic partner. At least we do see open market purchases by GTS at right pricing levels for mkt signalling. I don't remember seeing TS Indon family making that purchases.
The management team at TS has not changed very much for years- Peter Sung has been there for the longest time. I seriously thing, this Indo family is just there to milk the cow. Not the type of Godfather to put too much trust in.
GG
Vested (Odd Lots in All)
They are following the Ho Bee route by redeveloping an old asset into a Grade A office building to earn recurring income post 2017. Who knows, with all that printed money flying around, somebody may offer them a good deal even before the building is completed.
Almost on Cue, Tuan Sing moved up slightly thanks to value investors buying it at low prices!
(21-05-2013, 10:13 AM)propertyinvestor Wrote: [ -> ]Almost on Cue, Tuan Sing moved up slightly thanks to value investors buying it at low prices!
Suspect is more in anticipation of its next property launch..
For Sing Holdings, large part of Laurels already recognized (earnings likely to be at / near peak in short term). Potential catalyst in upcoming launches: Punggol EC (may be soon) and Robin (not sure when). Plus some recurring income from rental and dividends.
For Tuan Sing, large part of seletar and sennett already sold. Cluny park coming up soon. Latest results announcement mentioned 500+ units sold to be progressively recognized. Hence upcoming results likely to be decent. H/w office development will suck up the cash... so unlikely to have good dividends. (unless hotels in australia got bought over since there is fair amount of foreign interest in aussie hotels recently.)
One deep lesson I learnt from buying property counters is that even though they might sell their projects very well, the revenues from the sales will take some time to come on stream. Take Sing Holdings for example. The Laurels was 70% sold (if I remember correctly) when it was launched in Feb/Mar 2010....The tender for construction was awarded in Apr 2010 to Lian Beng and the contribution to earning was not really visible till 2012...A project sells well but unless you really intend to hold till its TOP which might be 2-3 years time I do not advise investing in it because during this mean time(from launch to TOP), the stock market might turn negative while the initial contribution to bottom line is negligible. (Sing Holdings fell to as low as 24 cents in 2011 when the stock market tanked even though The Laurels was selling pretty well)
Although I admit that the buzz(from the good sales during launch) might improve the share price.
My own personal view is that it is safer to invest near its TOP OR when bulk of revenue comes on stream hence improving the bottom line while cashflow improves significantly. I believed some of the guys holding Sing Holdings as long as me might agree with what I said.
not vested and not a call to buy or sell Tuan Sing.....
fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me
http://www.ura.gov.sg/lad/HBG/progressPayments.htm
(21-05-2013, 09:18 PM)Behappyalways Wrote: [ -> ]One deep lesson I learnt from buying property counters is that even though they might sell their projects very well, the revenues from the sales will take some time to come on stream. Take Sing Holdings for example. The Laurels was 70% sold (if I remember correctly) when it was launched in Feb/Mar 2010....The tender for construction was awarded in Apr 2010 to Lian Beng and the contribution to earning was not really visible till 2012...A project sells well but unless you really intend to hold till its TOP which might be 2-3 years time I do not advise investing in it because during this mean time(from launch to TOP), the stock market might turn negative while the initial contribution to bottom line is negligible. (Sing Holdings fell to as low as 24 cents in 2011 when the stock market tanked even though The Laurels was selling pretty well)
Although I admit that the buzz(from the good sales during launch) might improve the share price.
My own personal view is that it is safer to invest near its TOP OR when bulk of revenue comes on stream hence improving the bottom line while cashflow improves significantly. I believed some of the guys holding Sing Holdings as long as me might agree with what I said.
not vested and not a call to buy or sell Tuan Sing.....
fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me
http://www.ura.gov.sg/lad/HBG/progressPayments.htm
Why would anybody want to buy when the building near TOPs at a high price with smaller margins to earn?
Are you saying buying Sing Holdings now at 50c is better than buy Sing Holdings at 30c 2 years ago?
(21-05-2013, 09:18 PM)Behappyalways Wrote: [ -> ]One deep lesson I learnt from buying property counters is that even though they might sell their projects very well, the revenues from the sales will take some time to come on stream. Take Sing Holdings for example. The Laurels was 70% sold (if I remember correctly) when it was launched in Feb/Mar 2010....The tender for construction was awarded in Apr 2010 to Lian Beng and the contribution to earning was not really visible till 2012...A project sells well but unless you really intend to hold till its TOP which might be 2-3 years time I do not advise investing in it because during this mean time(from launch to TOP), the stock market might turn negative while the initial contribution to bottom line is negligible. (Sing Holdings fell to as low as 24 cents in 2011 when the stock market tanked even though The Laurels was selling pretty well)
Although I admit that the buzz(from the good sales during launch) might improve the share price.
My own personal view is that it is safer to invest near its TOP OR when bulk of revenue comes on stream hence improving the bottom line while cashflow improves significantly. I believed some of the guys holding Sing Holdings as long as me might agree with what I said.
not vested and not a call to buy or sell Tuan Sing.....
fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me
http://www.ura.gov.sg/lad/HBG/progressPayments.htm
hi hi. you talking about an issue with accounting recognition?
I think Ho Bee recognises by stage of completion, so the revenue comes in progressively over the years. I believe Tuan Sing should be the case too (forgot my accounting policy, please refer to INT FRS 115, but i think for HDB and China properties recognise on delivery)
On theory, the market should react on the point of sales, because the cash flow is kinda locked in, and should be reflected in the stock price. Most China properties stocks react accordingly when their monthly contracted sales (i.e. when the sales contracted is signed but coudl be before construction) are announced. In Singapore and stocks like Tuan Sing, I believe its probably just lack of liquidity and information that is causing the market to react slowly?
As you said, if Tuan Sing recognises only on delivery, this could be opportunity to monitor the project sale price and delivery date, use it to forecast delivery and hence revenue recognition, and therefore predict the earnings. This is basically what property research analysts do actually, just that nobody really covers tuan sing.