(06-08-2012, 12:47 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ]IMO, the rational strategy is to maintain mail segment as far as possible, while to grow other segments. Base on last Q1 result, the mail segment op profit reduces (-4%), logistic increase (+54%) and retail increase (+75%). It look impressive but the logistic and retail segments base are much lower than mail segment, but if trend continue, it is not inconceivable for logistic + retail > mail in op profit in future.
Just my view. I agree that operating profit may be more than mail business in the future. But from a point of view of investor and knowing it is a volume business, how about the capex, cashflows, COGS, SG&A and most importantly, dividends, will change in the future? The key issue is the margins and whether investors in the future will price SP as well as the current monopolistic business structure they enjoy now.
the best thing about sing post is a monopolistic 50% margin defensive business.
Singpost is not reinventing itself nor upgrading itself to match the international postal delivery.
IMHO, the dividend is more or less there but it is quite a fat hope to expect Singpost to double its revenue or profit.
Its' VPOST unit is unable to do a better job than Comgateway and Bordelinx.
First of all, in case someone still think SingPost has the monopoly right in Singapore postal service, please refer to the link. It is already been fully liberalized in 2007
http://www.ida.gov.sg/News%20and%20Event...agetype=20
SingPost seem remain monopoly in postal service in Singapore, because no-one is willing to invest into a "sunset" biz.
Secondly, SingPost is re-inventing the processes and facilities to cater to new postal market.
You may notice less "paper" mail been received, both from your friends and corporate partners. "Go-green" is a trend, no-one can stop the trend, including SingPost.
You may also notice more "parcel" mail been send/receive, either by internet purchase, or by biz-to-biz or individual-to-individual transactions.
SingPost is re-investing itself to adapt to the trend, by re-engineered its processes and facilities.
One of the "moat" of SingPost is the connectivity in Singapore. It has a ready network to reach every corners of Singapore. It has collection points i.e. Post Offices and Post Boxes all over Singapore. It will take its competitors years to establish that.
TOL. If Singpost can work with HDB to increase the size of the post box, it will certainly increase further the use of e-commerce/ e-delivery.
It's good to see this thread has grown to 10 pages.........havent been to forums for a while.....
(06-08-2012, 02:20 PM)yeokiwi Wrote: [ -> ]Its' VPOST unit is unable to do a better job than Comgateway and Bordelinx.
I am surprised to find out that both are SG companies. Bye bye VPOST.
Post box all over the place? Recently I sent a parcel via DHL... It seems that they have a tie up with Cheers to accept packages for express delivery 24/7. My parcel was successfully delivered within 3 working days worldwide. Pretty sure DHL didn't take years to achieve that
SP logistic segment op margin has been in a decreasing trend from about 10% to 4% since they bought quatium 4 yrs ago. Last year was the worst and the reason given was more investment to transform the company. Before that, the reason was expiry of job scheme. Didn't have much confident in the execution. Assuming mail segment contribution continue to shrink, logistic margin really need to grow at a much faster pace. At the peak, logistic op contribution was double of last year, but dividend remain at 6.25cents. Highly unlikely that dividend will grow in coming years, although it shoul not shrink either
(07-08-2012, 10:55 PM)cif5000 Wrote: [ -> ] (06-08-2012, 02:20 PM)yeokiwi Wrote: [ -> ]Its' VPOST unit is unable to do a better job than Comgateway and Bordelinx.
I am surprised to find out that both are SG companies. Bye bye VPOST.
That is quite surprising. I thought they were US companies.
VPOST started off rather promisingly but it fails to provide good services and PRICE(I wonder how can any other companies deliver cheaper than VPOST or at similar cost to Singapore??).
Not to mention the lost packages by VPOST......