(22-04-2014, 01:27 AM)tanjm Wrote: [ -> ]I actually think its possible we may be quite near the bottom for Sabana. The market had already priced in most of what was announced.
There was a 7+ million increase in costs, of which 2 million was due to (one time) refinancing costs. 6 of the properties are still only at 76% occupancy, and 22 properties at 90%. If you strip the 2 million out alone, that means an adjusted dividend of about 2.19 cents, which is a 8.47% yield at current prices.
This was based on a cursory glance at the financials. Let me know if you think I'm mistaken.
http://sabana.listedcompany.com/newsroom...Report.pdf
At the bottom half of page 3 of the F/S above, the 2 million odd finance cost was added back into distributable income. So I don't think your adjustment is necessary since it was already adjusted in the first place. If occupancy can recover with new leases signed at decent rates, there is upside potential to the DPU.
(Not Vested)
(22-04-2014, 02:00 AM)Nick Wrote: [ -> ] (22-04-2014, 01:27 AM)tanjm Wrote: [ -> ]I actually think its possible we may be quite near the bottom for Sabana. The market had already priced in most of what was announced.
There was a 7+ million increase in costs, of which 2 million was due to (one time) refinancing costs. 6 of the properties are still only at 76% occupancy, and 22 properties at 90%. If you strip the 2 million out alone, that means an adjusted dividend of about 2.19 cents, which is a 8.47% yield at current prices.
This was based on a cursory glance at the financials. Let me know if you think I'm mistaken.
http://sabana.listedcompany.com/newsroom...Report.pdf
At the bottom half of page 3 of the F/S above, the 2 million odd finance cost was added back into distributable income. So I don't think your adjustment is necessary since it was already adjusted in the first place. If occupancy can recover with new leases signed at decent rates, there is upside potential to the DPU.
(Not Vested)
I had another quick look. The income available for distribution dropped by about 2.4 million (pg 2). The number of shares increased from 640 to 690 million. So the drop in DPU is partly share dilution - that is almost certainly anticipated by the market.
As for the financing cost, I do note that's what the footnote says. But the cashflow report on pg 9 says it differently. 1.48 million due to break costs and another 770K "transaction cost". If you add it back to the DPU, that's an additional 0.32 cents of CPU = 2.2 cents total.
I don't even take a look at its latest presentation, I am probably the one remain greedy when others are fearful. A big chunk of vacant spaces means higher upside potential, the prices was resilient meaning many of them in the market has probably the same thought as me. My view has not changed, will collect more if falls below a dollar.
Management wanted to sell off some under performing assets , unless asset prices are lower otheriwsie who would like to buy. Manager is the sole gainer if some assets are sold.
“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”
WB.
Unquote
i think the "best" time to apply what WB said is during a severe Bear Market. But you have to "Tann KOO KOO". Besides when the time comes, do you still have the capital? Do you still have your common sense? Lastly but not least do you dare to buy and still can sleep well at night?
Like the last GFC, i definitely bought but chickened out at the worst. That was Mar 2009. Though i did buy some even at this time.
I chickened out because i was caught by surprise. i thought at that time 2008 was the year that the falling knife had found it's target. But it was not to be. Nobody really can time the market.
Only, if only i had not chickened out.
But this is always the case.
Who says history doesn't repeat itself?
For me it does.
Chickened out chicken is really better then the chicken on the table.
See you around for a long, long time.
Meanwhile, Happy Hunting in the Bulls Meadow.
Just try your best not to be ensnared by any Bear's Hug.
From Business times.
http://www.stproperty.sg/articles-proper...lassifieds
"Of the nine industrial trusts here, UOB Kay Hian has identified Sabana Reit as the riskiest.
Two of its buildings at Chai Chee Lane and Commonwealth Lane - which make up 11 per cent of its valuations - stand at occupancies of 53 and 69 per cent respectively. "If negotiations are not already at an advanced stage, Sabana will need to secure anchor tenants for 17 per cent of the space," it said."
Looking at current market trend, the overdue GSS could be coming soon?
Don't care. Don't hope. Don't bother.
"Experts" of the markets can predict anything they like.
Just ask yourself what you are going to do if there is a GSS.
Are you even prepared?
i hope i am.