Just for fun, can take a look at the history of Mobile Phones in
wiki.
To a non-tech person, a mobile phone may be just the same product that'd evolved over time from 1G to 2G to 3G and now 4G. As simple as 1-2-3-4? From the point of technology, definitely not! Each generation changes involves complex changes and that may explain why in each generation, the original leader gets replaced and never seems to be able to return...
AFAIK and can remember, the 1st Mobile phone I saw was dominated by MOTOROLA. Remember the clunky HP? Almost the size of a Sports Water Bottle and rather heavy? The image that lingers in my mind is the HK movies where the Big Brother used it to bash up underlings who'd betrayed him... Yes, it was made to be rugged, prob. cos' the original leader, Motorola was good at making rugged comms equipments.
What happened to Motorola? They got kicked off the leader board by Ericcson. Today, Motorola Mobility is part of Google...
I remembered my first HP was an Ericcson, issued by my company. In comparison to the original Motorola HP, it was real sleek! Tiny and light weight. BUT, they still have that irritating antenna that gets broken off so often....
In a very short time, Nokia appeared with their HP that don't have that irritating antenna. Hey! that became the HP everybody wants. Yes, I finally got issued one by my company. Nokia very soon became No.1.
What happened to Ericcson? They subsequently became part of Sony-Ericcson... They never regained their No.1 position.
Nokia stayed at No.1 for the longest time... till... Smart Phones became the HP that's desired by all. Guess who was able to capitalise on this shift? Apple, a non-telecom co. introduced their iPhone and it became a hit. Who'd have ever believed that could have happened? Not me! The PC and Telecom market were 2 different segments and well.. everyone thought it's 2 different expertise... But, it converged...
IMO, Apple's strength is developing products that non-techies find easy to use eg. for those who uses computers, how often do you have to reboot a Mac vs a Wintel one? The smart phone can be intimidating to a non-techie. But, iPhone and Android phones has simple to use UI and that's why they'd become so popular. Contrast that to a WinPhone when it was first launched....
So, now we have iPhone, Androids dominating the market. Will it stay like that forever? Looking at the history, very unlikely... With 4G slowly coming online, perhaps we'll see a new leader emerging?
What will happen to Nokia? They dominated the No.1 for the longest time. Will they recover? Looking at history alone, I think very unlikely... Their fortunes are now tied to Windows (they can still break away and have multiple platforms, like Android), will they succeed? Will they even survive? Based on history alone, they may end up like the last 2 previous leaders.. ie. merge or taken over by...? Microsoft?
PS. I know, the past may not be an indication of the outcome of the future... But, if you also look at the PC industry, the previous No.1s like IBM, Compaq, HP,... I don't remember anyone ever coming back to regain their No.1... Even in Consumers Products, the US/European brands got replaced by Japanese, Koreans... Cameras also... The Tech Industry is a ruthless one..