(06-05-2017, 04:24 PM)Behappyalways Wrote: [ -> ]Travelodge Docklands - 6.12% (based on FY2016 EBITDA)
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/AGM%2020...eID=450155
(28-12-2017, 10:08 AM)Behappyalways Wrote: [ -> ]Value trap or market imperfection????
The land cost of Parc Botannia project is $515.3psf ( $287.1m / 557150sqf)
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Announce...eID=422708
Their 30% JV Wee Hur should be able to bring down the construction cost. Let's assume the construction and miscellaneous cost to be $365psf, then the breakeven cost for the project would be $880psf.
Assuming selling price of $1280psf and totally sold by TOP, profit of $400psf
http://www.straitstimes.com/business/pro...days-begin
Total Gross Profit of $222.86m ($400psf x 557150sqf)
Assuming total 30% off Gross Profit due to tax, interest cost and other miscellaneous cost, Net Profit of $156m (70% x $222.86m)
Sing Holdings' share of profit from the joint venture(70%) is $109m (70% x 156m)
That is about 27 cents per share out of 400m shares.
i think your numbers are very conservative. your estimate of total costs is $365 + $120 = $485. There are developers who sold their projects at an average of $500psf above their land cost and still make some profit. i think the total cost is significantly lower.
(09-02-2018, 10:45 PM)bargainhunter Wrote: [ -> ]i think your numbers are very conservative. your estimate of total costs is $365 + $120 = $485. There are developers who sold their projects at an average of $500psf above their land cost and still make some profit. i think the total cost is significantly lower.
"Let's assume the construction and miscellaneous cost to be $365psf, then the breakeven cost for the project would be
$880psf."
From FY2017 result.....
The Group’s segmented results are disclosed in paragraph 15. Acquired in January 2017 at S$117.9 million (equivalent of A$112.9 million) including stamp duty of S$6.1 million, the hotel in Australia was classified as investment property. It generated revenue of S$6.9 million in FY2017 and contributed profit after tax of S$131,000 to the Group. The investment property was valued at S$114.9 million (equivalent of A$110.0 million) at year-end, resulting in net loss on fair value adjustment of S$3.0 million.
(on hindsight, the hotel is not a good investment)
(15-11-2017, 03:21 AM)thinleyw Wrote: [ -> ] (06-05-2017, 04:24 PM)Behappyalways Wrote: [ -> ]Travelodge Docklands - 6.12% (based on FY2016 EBITDA)
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/AGM%2020...eID=450155
6.12% EBITDA??? Are they insane? Tax is 30% and the commercial interest rate is a min. of 3.4%+risk margin (http://www.commercial-loans.net.au). Wow! LEE SZE HAO if you are reading this, I've got prime NY real estate for sale!
but the profit after tax of $131k is after the fair value adjustment of $3.047m, without which, the net profit would have been above $3m. I think they are just being conservative and took the chance to take a bath since they have nothing to show in 2017.
ie refer to paragraph 15 of
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/SHL_FY20...eID=490233
Well the Australian property is not providing the company with the expected returns. Taking note that the occupancy is already above 90%, any improvement is meagre.
Parc botannia is 43% sold. I am quite comfortable in believing that it should be fully sold by TOP. Need to sell about 20 units a month which in Jan 2018 they sold 44 units if I remembered correctly. The project should yield above $100m + profits hence should on average produce $50m profit for 2018 and 2019
i think $3m+ net yield was what they expected since they did borrow to finance it and there will be borrowing costs to net off.
i think its possible for parc botannia to yield > 120m for them. that would be earnings of 30c per share. however, the bulk of the profits won't come in so soon. i think the earliest would be from late 2019 through to FY 2021.
The calculation for the property is based on % of completion. The construction started in July 2017
(06-05-2017, 04:24 PM)Behappyalways Wrote: [ -> ]Travelodge Docklands - 6.12% (based on FY2016 EBITDA)
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/AGM%2020...eID=450155
(27-02-2018, 09:10 PM)Behappyalways Wrote: [ -> ]The calculation for the property is based on % of completion. The construction started in July 2017
but usually the initial phase is low margin as sales is low and construction cost is high?
the big % leap closer to TOP usually provides the kicker.