(27-08-2013, 06:01 PM)felixleong Wrote: [ -> ]Yeah at PE 33 its really still too expensive, maybe something like 15-20 times earnings would be more reasonable?
felix, if i remember the PE of dairy farm has never been below 20. its a nature of the type of business. even in the 2009 depth its at least 20.
Wal-mart has been traded below 20 all the time. I don't think there is any particular reason that Dairy Farm must trade so far above Wal-mart's PE ratio.
Looking further into the balance sheet of Dairy Farm, you will realize that Dairy Farm operates on extremely high leverage. It has slightly above 1 billion in equity, but around 4 billion of assets.
total assets/equity > 3, nearly 4.
Its ROE is of no wonder, simply too high a leverage only.
Its current liability exceed its current asset. Apparently, its vendors has great faith in the company.
But compared to Walmart, I will always take Walmart over Dairy Farm at current valuation and state of finance.
(28-08-2013, 02:36 PM)freedom Wrote: [ -> ]Looking further into the balance sheet of Dairy Farm, you will realize that Dairy Farm operates on extremely high leverage. It has slightly above 1 billion in equity, but around 4 billion of assets.
total assets/equity > 3, nearly 4.
Its ROE is of no wonder, simply too high a leverage only.
Its current liability exceed its current asset. Apparently, its vendors has great faith in the company.
But compared to Walmart, I will always take Walmart over Dairy Farm at current valuation and state of finance.
This is an interesting point. I must admit it never occurred to me to look at it in this way.
I think some of the Asian hypermarts are trading at pretty similar valuation. A quick glance of Sun Art Retail Group (largest hypermarket operator in China) shows its trading at PER of 33x with Total Liabilities / Total Equity of 1.36x.
(Not Vested)
(28-08-2013, 02:36 PM)freedom Wrote: [ -> ]Looking further into the balance sheet of Dairy Farm, you will realize that Dairy Farm operates on extremely high leverage. It has slightly above 1 billion in equity, but around 4 billion of assets.
total assets/equity > 3, nearly 4.
Its ROE is of no wonder, simply too high a leverage only.
Its current liability exceed its current asset. Apparently, its vendors has great faith in the company.
But compared to Walmart, I will always take Walmart over Dairy Farm at current valuation and state of finance.
This i will agree with freedom (refer to my views in post #37). Though business is strong with good moat, partly due to economy of scale, partly due to its parentage, its valuation in my opinion does not make value investing sense.
how about buying sheng siong instead of dairy farm?
valuations should be much cheaper?
i wonder why Li Ka Shing is selling Park&Shop. The official reason seems to be that he thinks that the market is mature and slow growing - unofficially i've seen some reports suggesting a potential move to stop the duopoly of the HK grocery biz (the other major player is Wellcome, owned by DairyFarm) by the authorities.
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The auction for ParknShop, Hong Kong’s largest supermarket by market share, is gathering pace.
Although it may not be the biggest deal to hit the region this year, it has stirred debate in the city on the role of tycoons in the city, not to mention the origin and safety of food.
ParknShop is owned by Hutchison Whampoa, a conglomerate controlled by Asia’s richest man Li Ka-shing, and it enjoys a near duopoly with Wellcome, which is run by British group Jardine Matheson Holdings.
The auction comes amid political and public pressure on tycoons, a new anti-competition law and the entry of mainland-Chinese state-owned enterprises to curb the sway of Hong Kong’s powerful conglomerates.
China Resources Enterprise said it has bid for ParknShop and may partner with the UK’s Tesco. Other suitors are Japan’s Aeon and Australia’s Woolworths said people familiar with the matter.
CRE owns Hong Kong's super market chain Vanguard.
Meanwhile, Private equity firms KKR and TPG had bid but were cut because their bids were too low, a person familiar with the matter said on Wednesday.
As an outcome draws closer, FinanceAsia asked a small sample of the supermarket’s customers which company they thought would make the best owners, and whether tycoons hold too much sway over the city.
Overall, most appeared concerned by a CRE bid due to concerns over food safety associated with mainland Chinese companies, with some claiming they were willing to pay a premium to shop in foreign supermarkets should CRE win the bid.
“I favour [an] Australian company because I associated the country with variety of fresh food. I will definitely not want any Chinese companies to take over ParknShop,” said Ray Kam, recruitment consultant, in his 20s.
Francesca Gao, a computer programmer cited food safety as the most important factor, and she preferred an Australian victory because “it sounds safe.”
However, a Chinese winner did meet with some approval.
Darren Wen, 24, a local Hongkonger who lived in Shenzhen before, is familiar with China Resources‘s mainland supermarket chain. “I think [a] merging with China Resources will maintain ParknShop’s brand image as a low margin supermarket for the general public, as China Resources’ supermarket chain is renowned for its competitive price in China. I certainly do not want western companies to rebrand ParknShop as some high end supermarket.”
When asked about if he is concerned about the food safety standards of Chinese companies, he added “People are influenced by the media too much without any first-hand experiences themselves.”
Chow Wei, a pharmacist, claimed that he has a passion for Chinese food, “I care about the product variety that a supermarket can offer, if China Resources can bring more authentic Chinese food, I would not mind that it wins the bid.”
David Hsu, a 22 years old student, said he would prefer Aeon due to the high standard services provided by Japanese companies. “However, I am worried about whether there will be volatility in food prices once the deal is sealed, as a student, practically speaking, put aside my personal preference, I would want someone who can keep the food on the shelves cheap to take over ParknShop.”
Meanwhile, there were concerns about the level of influence wielded by Hong Kong’s tycoons.
“In recent years, Li Ka-shing has been diversifying his investments into other countries because Hong Kong people are becoming more vocal about their dissatisfaction towards monopolist power in the marketplace,” said Wen.
Hsu, meanwhile, said he was concerned about the power associated with the wealth of Hong Kong tycoons. “Me and my friends were talking about how unbelievable it is that Li Ka-shing even owns so much of England now!” he said.
However, the feeling does not appear to be universal.
“I am not particularly concerned about wealth of Hong Kong tycoons as long they do not abuse the power comes with it,” said a lady who declined to be named. “If Li Ka-shing has not been manipulating food prices, nor will ParknShop’s next owner. I do not really mind at all. Even if there is not Li Ka-shing, there will always be the next richest man.”
a huge 45c drop today...what happened?
i bought 5400 shares of dairy farm today, it looks quite cheap to me
ROE can be tweaked by incurring huge leverage over equity. Please pay the necessary caveat when doing such analysis