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An article of China grocery retail market, which is relevant to the company China venture...

Foreign grocers struggle in China’s fast-moving retail landscape

BEIJING — From fast food to smartphones, from luxury goods to groceries, the way China shops — and what mainland shoppers want to buy — is changing rapidly. The changes are leaving foreign supermarket and hypermarket chains struggling to keep up by revamping store formats and selling more groceries online, retail analysts said.

Last week, Walmart announced a plan to turn round its declining sales in China by boosting store numbers by more than 25 per cent, renovating existing shops and introducing a new online shopping app.

The United States chain has been hit by food safety scandals in China, along with rapidly intensifying competition from other big hypermarket chains and from new online grocers.

But Walmart is far from the only foreign grocer that has struggled in China in recent years: Tesco, the United Kingdom chain, failed to make it alone on the mainland despite an ambitious programme of building so-called “lifestyle malls”, anchored by Tesco stores.

That gamble failed, largely because Tesco did not have the expertise to compete as a property developer in the difficult mainland property market, retail analysts said. Tesco was forced into a joint venture with one of the mainland’s leading retailers, China Resources Enterprise (CRE).

But turning round Tesco’s mainland business has not proved easy for CRE either, and the company last week sold its lossmaking non-beer (including grocery) businesses to its parent, China Resources Holdings.

The sector’s woes are not limited to foreign brands. A report by OC&C strategy consultants found that “nearly all the major players among China’s big-box grocers ... have experienced near-consistent negative growth since 2010”. Growth during that period came almost entirely from new store openings, OC&C said.

Competition from online grocers is one of the biggest threats to bricks and mortar sales at chains such as Walmart, Carrefour and Auchan’s SunArt Retail, retail analysts said. Consumer tastes in China change more rapidly than in many established markets, and in the past year or two, online grocery sales have exploded.

“In China, older people don’t have a lot of entertainment so shopping (even in grocery stores) is entertainment for them, but our younger generation has grown up with a computer at their side and so they prefer to entertain themselves by travelling, not shopping in physical stores,” said Ms Huang Aizhu, head of Tmall’s food business. The business, part of the Alibaba group, is growing annually in the “triple digits”, she said.

“The combination of online and offline is the way of the future,” Ms Huang added. Sales of fresh foods such as fruit, vegetables and seafood — traditionally the preserve of bricks and mortar stores or traditional wet markets — are growing faster online than other grocery items, she said.

Walmart already has one of the strongest e-commerce presences in China, through its 51 per cent stake in Yihaodian, the popular online grocer.

Mr Doug McMillon, Walmart global chief executive, told a press conference in Beijing last week that the retailer plans to expand both online and offline.

“We want to help customers shop in a way that is most convenient for them. For some convenience is shopping online and having products delivered to their homes, for others it is shopping online and picking up at a store and for others it’s the experience of being in a store, seeing and handling products that they buy ... new ways are being invented every week.”

“Consumer spending power in China is rising at about 10 per cent per year and tastes are changing rapidly. Keeping up with that for retailers is tough, and there is increasingly competition with each other. A lot of chains are having to close existing stores and reopen and redevelop new formats,” said Mr Matthew Crabbe, China retail analyst at Mintel.

Solving the cold chain logistics problem is key for online food retailers, he said.

JD.com, a leading mainland e-commerce company, has struck a deal to distribute fresh, chilled and frozen products through convenience stores that either hold them for customer collection or deliver to their homes.

“They are leapfrogging the big chains, which will have to respond in kind to compete,” he added, noting that Walmart and Tesco have been “developing their stores to be more like delivery depots”. THE FINANCIAL TIMES
http://www.todayonline.com/chinaindia/ch...epage=true
It is a pretty worrying news
Sheng Siong halted today, pending for announcement, which is rare IIRC. I guess it might be a major M&A oversea?

(vested)
EMS Energy and Sheng Siong request for halt almost at the same time, wondering if EMS Energy's director Lim Siong Sheng has anything to do with Sheng Siong?

[ not vested in both ]
(14-05-2015, 09:51 AM)valuebuddies Wrote: [ -> ]EMS Energy and Sheng Siong request for halt almost at the same time, wondering if EMS Energy's director Lim Siong Sheng has anything to do with Sheng Siong?

[ not vested in both ]

I noticed that the SS's share price inched upwards a little the past 2 days, after drifting downwards for a while...I wonder if it is a signal that the market is anticipating some good news?
(14-05-2015, 09:40 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ]Sheng Siong halted today, pending for announcement, which is rare IIRC. I guess it might be a major M&A oversea?

(vested)

An new update of existing venture...

Sheng Siong gets regulatory nod to operate in China
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...rate-china
My Mandarin isn't that good. But it seems like the Chinese partner is a company that specializes in seasonings n fresh veg trading. They have a cold storage facility in Kunming as well.

However, I tried to do a google search of the brands they claimed to have, n didnt find much info abt them.

http://kmlcjt.com/list16.htm

Not Vested "yet"


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Fellow VBs,

I find that somehow the market didn't seem to ve priced in the eventual population growth target of 6.9m. If assuming current population of 5.5m, 6.9m gives another 25.4 percent more consumers shopping for groceries. I believe there was like some news lurking about this 6.9 m population target.

Assuming that not all 25.4 percent shop at SSG, there is plenty more consumers who are potential SSG shoppers. If we are to assume a rough increase of 15% in terms of number of shoppers at SSG, thats 108,898k sgd (2014 revenue 725,987k x 15%), thats a fair amount of revenue. The current positioning of the ssg stores gives ssg a good strategic "stranglehold" of the grocery market.

My guesstimate gives me a possible eps of 5.97 cents, assuming that most operating costs remain relatively constant. If pe is at 22 times. That gives a possible price of $1.31. Then again, its my guesstimate.

With the ringit exchange rate on down trend, there is even more room for margin widening. Recent exchange rates are quite attractive. I have gotten 2.69 at some money changers. This results in lower cost of sales for those goods imported from m'sia. Singapore currency has generally been quite well maintained. MAS relaxed monetary policy also resulted in stronger sgd http://www.straitstimes.com/news/busines...y-20150414

With m'sia implementation of gst of 6%, there is greater risk of higher cost being translated to higher cost of sales.

My primary concern would be how the china jv would pan out. The financial impact may not be felt for this year at least.

Any comments from fellow vb?

PS: It seems like a strong recession resistant counter. Good times or bad, eat still must eat. We can choose to wear simpler with lesser pay, but eat also can eat lesser. Tongue Medical and dental businesses are sure beneficiaries of any population growth.
IIRC, the 6.9 mil isn't a target, but an estimation, and to be exact, it is 6.5 mil - 6.9 mil. Next, the estimation is on 2030, 15 years from now. A 25% increment over 15 years, means average less than 2% p.a.

I am not sure the derivation of 5.97 cents EPS? Base on 15% increment on sales, and assuming margins remain the same, the EPS estimation should be 3.84 cents (FY2014 EPS of 3.34 cent * 1.15), right?

IMO, the sales mainly come from capturing bigger market share. I am expecting the company sales grow faster than overall market growth in the next 5 years, and reaching $1.2 billion sales in 2020. Together with the margins improvement, the EPS in 2020 is estimated between 5-6 cents, and share price is estimated as $1.30++

(vested, and sharing a view)
I plan to do a brief article on my recent visit to a SS store. There's some interesting finding which i feel they may have a good chance to succeed in China where others couldn't.