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Full Version: ARK Innovation Has Likely Been a Disappointment for Most Investors
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Hi amperex,

It is same same (concept) but different (execution).

300 years ago, you could run away with the money and someone needs to put a bounty on your head to have a chance to find you again. In addition, then we did not have the repertoire of investment bankers/brokers, better information symmetry and the enforcement (SEC for example)
(20-01-2022, 07:47 AM)weijian Wrote: [ -> ]Hi amperex,

It is same same (concept) but different (execution).

300 years ago, you could run away with the money and someone needs to put a bounty on your head to have a chance to find you again. In addition, then we did not have the repertoire of investment bankers/brokers, better information symmetry and the enforcement (SEC for example)

In June 1983, that prospectus was actually filed with the SEC !

And yes like Mark Twain said  "History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme."
How could you guys miss out the amazing dot com bubble? 😄 In 1999 any company that changes its name to .com with no business plan can be valued $1b. Superman Li joined in the fun with Tom.com did it with one webpage I think

“ The company was launched in December and won't roll out its Web site until June. But its powerful financial backing has made it one of the hottest IPOs in Asia.”

Let me help fill in the year for clarity: formed Dec 1999, list Mar 2000 and website (which I remember was just a webpage with pics and links to other sites) starts in June 2000

https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB951245321341730168
(20-01-2022, 11:27 PM)specuvestor Wrote: [ -> ]How could you guys miss out the amazing dot com bubble? 😄 In 1999 any company that changes its name to .com with no business plan can be valued $1b. Superman Li joined in the fun with Tom.com did it with one webpage I think

“ The company was launched in December and won't roll out its Web site until June. But its powerful financial backing has made it one of the hottest IPOs in Asia.”

Let me help fill in the year for clarity: formed Dec 1999, list Mar 2000 and website (which I remember was just a webpage with pics and links to other sites) starts in June 2000

https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB951245321341730168

Why so troublesome? 

SPAC - Give me money, I will buy you something. - you only need a mouth to say it
Dot com also have shell companies... but not so fast track as SPAC Big Grin

Also put in context Superman Li's prowess: Tom.com list in March and April was dot com peak
(21-01-2022, 02:53 PM)specuvestor Wrote: [ -> ]Dot com also have shell companies... but not so fast track as SPAC Big Grin

Also put in context Superman Li's prowess: Tom.com list in March and April was dot com peak

He is quite a good market timer (of the top); he was also a major shareholder of Zoom  Smile
GameStop and Robinhood will be remembered as the crazy meme stock frenzy representation. When gamers band together to fight the Big Boss like they do in MMORPG

https://cathiesark.com/arkk-holdings-of-hood

(Bloomberg) --Robinhood Markets Inc. shares are in a tailspin and that’s making them the worst high-profile global stock market debut since the onset of the pandemic, just edging past China’s Didi Global Inc. and London’s THG Plc.
The retail brokerage’s shares slumped as much as 14% Friday to $9.94 after it reported fourth-quarter revenue and losses that were worse than analysts’ estimates. It took losses since their initial public offering in July to 73%, making it the worst performer among companies that raised $2 billion or more on global exchanges since early 2020.
Generally, in a late stage of a bull market, participants start to get nervous and big "blue chip" caps start to outperform the small "speculative" companies - We probably have been seeing something along that line for the past few months. But such phenomenon happens often and the old adage of "the stock market predicted 9 out of the last 5 recessions" applies.

The thing I like about value and fundamental investing discipline is that it tends to nudge one to focus on the fundamentals and the value proposition. It could be deep value OR Growth at Reasonable Price. Time is much well spent focusing on company/sector fundamentals than worrying about rates, inflation, expectations etc.

The Stock Market's Dominoes Are Falling

In summary, today’s equity downturn is alarmingly reminiscent of what occurred 22 years ago, when a sell-off in speculative stocks presaged far greater losses. However, the historical comparison will be complete only if growth-stock earnings also stumble.

https://www.morningstar.com/articles/107...re-falling
Bottom line it is earnings.

As mentioned in the article 2000-2002, earnings fell as well resulting in stock prices plunge.

Against the words of yogi berra, I would make the prediction for a company; if they are to post earnings growth of 5-10% annually and now sells at 15-20 times PE, they wont be facing the share price plunge in the next few years (as of now only the Chinese Tech Companies fall in this category). Earnings are what eventually should weigh a company's value.

On the contrary, those who are selling at 5 or more times Price/sales but not going to turn profitable soon (the big 2 Singapore tech companies), or earnings grow only at less than 5% annually and are now valued at P/E 50 and greater, they are going to suffer. These group consists of mainly the US companies.
Earnings as in strictly the bottom line? How about top line, free cash flow, gross profit etc.; or some other more nuanced metric (subscribers, users, market share, R&D spend, capex spend, developer share, value of IPs etc) while also being increasingly cash generative?
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