Powell kor kor says NO PIVOTs. Needs to get to 2% inflation target and there will be some "PAIN"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFr23l78sec
BTC and NASDAQ/SnP/Dow all big sell-off.
Ah Crash lai liao!!!
Will STI finally dip to 2600 again?
(27-08-2022, 08:23 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: [ -> ]Powell kor kor says NO PIVOTs. Needs to get to 2% inflation target and there will be some "PAIN"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFr23l78sec
BTC and NASDAQ/SnP/Dow all big sell-off.
Ah Crash lai liao!!!
Will STI finally dip to 2600 again?
Hopefully, although better if it dips below 2000. Earlier in the year I cut my Singapore holdings to a minimum, just retaining enough to provide a basic dividend stream. I hope by the middle of next year it will be deja vu to March 2009, looking at a devastated market with some screaming bargains. The combined effects of plague, war, famine, an oil price shock, the biggest real estate bust in history (starting in China but going to spread) and central banks finally tightening (too late) are likely to be eye-watering. I have been surprised at how resilient the STI has been so far. While Singapore avoided the artificial financial booms seen elsewhere, due to more conservative policies, a small, open economy has to suffer when the rest of the world does.
(28-08-2022, 06:32 AM)Dosser Wrote: [ -> ] (27-08-2022, 08:23 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: [ -> ]Powell kor kor says NO PIVOTs. Needs to get to 2% inflation target and there will be some "PAIN"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFr23l78sec
BTC and NASDAQ/SnP/Dow all big sell-off.
Ah Crash lai liao!!!
Will STI finally dip to 2600 again?
Hopefully, although better if it dips below 2000. Earlier in the year I cut my Singapore holdings to a minimum, just retaining enough to provide a basic dividend stream. I hope by the middle of next year it will be deja vu to March 2009, looking at a devastated market with some screaming bargains. The combined effects of plague, war, famine, an oil price shock, the biggest real estate bust in history (starting in China but going to spread) and central banks finally tightening (too late) are likely to be eye-watering. I have been surprised at how resilient the STI has been so far. While Singapore avoided the artificial financial booms seen elsewhere, due to more conservative policies, a small, open economy has to suffer when the rest of the world does.
While Singapore avoided the artificial financial booms seen elsewhere,--> I don't think this is the case. Singapore enjoyed the artificial booms in three aspects:
1) Property Boom: Due to the low interest rates and cheap value of money, many property investors were willing to throw in cash to buy properties to earn the differential between rental yield and repaying the interest (example rental yield 2.5% vs loan interest of 1.6%)
2) Absurd Valuation of Singapore Tech Companies: Boom in Sea, Grab, Carousell, Ninjavan leading an employment spree. They have large losses but have been scaling up in hiring IT engineers and paying them well. Not sure if this can last where the cost of equity increases
3) Crypto Boom with Many Companies Set Up here: Due to lack of (decision to not to) regulations of crypto, Luna sank its roots here and along with it span an ecosystem of crypto companies. Luna has collapsed and crypto companies here are falling like dominoes. Beyond Luna, if bitcoin and Eth prices fall due to the tightening, more companies here may collapse, resulting in retrenchments. This is turn affects the rental demand in S/N 1 as employees lose their job
Just to add....
It never rains but it pours...
We are probably in stage 2 of the bear market. Stage 1 ended in end June, then we have a bear rally. Bear rally because it cannot break S&P 4370. Fundamentally with so many problems in the making plus much lower earnings estimates, I really doubt the bottom is over. Now probably start of stage 2 of Bear. Amazingly the legendary Stanley Druckenmiller got it right by covering its short by June and waiting for the right time to get in again to short. You can watch his video in the earlier posting I post.
Probably there is an Asian Financial Crisis 2 in the making as US dollar wrecking ball continues to smash most other currencies. Take Europe for example, ECB is kinda 'force' to hike interest rate due to US hike. At this point if time, the pressure
on Europe fragmentation is the highest with Italy general election in September. Same for the rest of the world for they are forced to hike interest rates even when their economies are weak. Lately China's RMB has been depreciating quite fast. During the last currency crisis in 1997, China kinda 'save' the world with its pledge not to depreciate. But this time round, you can see Korean won, Japanese yen all depreciating fast with China RMB probably catching up. One plus for US is that this time round there is a chance to take down China.
For an investor who does not have time to monitor, it is time to be defensive, hold US dollar while waiting and waiting for events to unravel. I am holding gold miner stocks( not Singapore gold miner.....crap) but I am quite sure we probably will see weakness in gold price in the short term/medium term because of strong US dollar and liquidity crisis(holders force to liquidate gold etfs to raise cash) but gold will probably do very well in the long term.
Last but not least to summarize...
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gxhknGARGt4
(28-08-2022, 12:03 PM)Behappyalways Wrote: [ -> ]Just to add....
It never rains but it pours...
We are probably in stage 2 of the bear market. Stage 1 ended in end June, then we have a bear rally. Bear rally because it cannot break S&P 4270. Fundamentally with so many problems in the making plus much lower earnings estimates, I really doubt the bottom is over. Now probably start of stage 2 of Bear. Amazingly the legendary Stanley Druckenmiller got it right by covering its short by June and waiting for the right time to get in again to short. You can watch his video in the earlier posting I post.
Probably there is an Asian Financial Crisis 2 in the making as US dollar wrecking ball continues to smash most other currencies. Take Europe for example, ECB is kinda 'force' to hike interest rate due to US hike. At this point if time, the pressure
on Europe fragmentation is the highest with Italy general election in September. Same for the rest of the world for they are forced to hike interest rates even when their economies are weak. Lately China's RMB has been depreciating quite fast. During the last currency crisis in 1997, China kinda 'save' the world with its pledge not to depreciate. But this time round, you can see Korean won, Japanese yen all depreciating fast with China RMB probably catching up. One plus for US is that this time round there is a chance to take down China.
For an investor who does not have time to monitor, it is time to be defensive, hold US dollar while waiting and waiting for events to unravel. I am holding gold miner stocks( not Singapore gold miner.....crap) but I am quite sure we probably will see weakness in gold price in the short term/medium term because of strong US dollar and liquidity crisis(holders force to liquidate gold etfs to raise cash) but gold will probably do very well in the long term.
Last but not least to summarize...
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gxhknGARGt4
I often believed that the Chinese real estate bubble will crash their economy and they will go into a prolonged period of flat growth ala Japan 2.0 and lost decades. China is heavily reliant on constant building of RE to maintain its GDP growth, without RE I am sure their GDP growth will either flatline or go negative.
However China does have some things going for it that Japan didnt have. Despite shrinking population in China, its total population is still massive. China is also working on a BRICS reserve currency with her allies. This is likely to have some sort of gold or commodity backing(as CHina India RUssia South Africa are all gold powerhouses) which means massive currency depreciation for yuan/ruble/rand/rupee in the face of and AFC scenario or global recession is less likely.
Of course if we go into a currency reset scenario, then I am not sure whats going to happen to all the currencies. will each nation have ther own CBDC? Will some nations like SG/Swiss end up having to peg their currencies to gold?
If you look at USD, last night the dollar index didnt move much unlike the start of the crash earlier this year. could funds be fearful of a worsening American recession, which is bad for USD, now that FED says there will be "PAIN" and economic slowdown?
@dosser I dont think STI will drop below 2000 again as back during GFC as surely the component companies must have gained some value from both revenue/earnings growth as well as inflation, but never say never. If inflation run away and SGD is made to appreciate lets say 20% we could see a drop to 2500 from general market crash then another 20% drop on top of that due to currency which will bring it to 2k.
STI is a very controlled market with big bro temasek pulling the strings for most counters. Only the commodities based counters are hard for them to do price control on. I be happy if it went below 2500 as per during covid times.
Risks out there....
Look at currency......look at China Rmb. HK dollar is also too strong for HK due to peg